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Spence vs Crawford Fight Analysis By Ralph Rimpell PhilBoxing.com Thu, 27 Jul 2023  It has taken 6 years but on Saturday night July 29, 2023 the fight that hardcore boxing fans and the occasional fight fans have been salivating for will finally happen at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Errol Spence Jr. (28-0, 22KOs) the unified WBA/WBC/IBF welterweight champion (147lbs) will look to defend all three of his titles against 3 division champion (lightweight, undisputed junior welterweight, welterweight) and current WBO welterweight champion Terrance “Bud” Crawford (39-0, 30KOs). The criticism on Crawford is he has NOT fought elite fighters on his rise to fame because of fighting for a rival Promoter, Top Rank, which Spence was not signed to. When Crawford did fight elite fighter Shawn Porter, Porter was at the end of his career and no longer elite. So the argument is Crawford really is NOT that good and is unproven because of the level of his opposition. The criticism of Spence is he has NOT fought Terrance Crawford the number 1 “Pound for Pound” (P4P) best fighter in the world who is on many boxing writer’s P4P list. So which argument is accurate? The former or the latter. Boxing experts, current boxing world champions, former world champions, boxing trainers, and fight fans all have a different prediction of who will win this dream matchup and why. Some of the aforementioned go back and forth with their predictions by picking Spence today as the winner of the bout only reverting back to picking Crawford as the winner of the bout. Predictions such as those is a genuine indication that no one really can be too sure who will prevail on Saturday night. Therefore, let us examine the likely keys to victory for each fighter. 
What does Errol Spence Jr have to do to defeat Terrance Crawford at the sound of the first bell this Saturday night? Errol Spence is a big welterweight. It’s no secret he wants to move up to the higher weight divisions (154lbs, 160lbs, 168lbs). Officially Spence stands at 5’10 while Crawford stands at 5’9. So Spence is the bigger man. Those that have picked Spence to win the fight believe Spence will use his size, punching power, athleticism to impose his will on the smaller Crawford who started his career at 135lbs. Trainer Derrick James has stated that Spence will “break” Crawford. It’s a clear indication that their strategy will be to try to walk through the smaller Crawford. That appears to be the plan long before the fight was signed. At a face to face encounter years ago, Spence said when he defeats Crawford the excuse will be that he (Crawford) was too small for the bigger Spence. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TdH7gmsuyo, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBSblat3CI). There was also a rumor that both Spence and Crawford sparred years ago and Spence hurt Crawford which has been dismissed as false by Crawford. So at the start of the opening bell, look for Spence to come out using is jab to find his range to land dangerous and heavy punches against the smaller Crawford to see if he can out-muscle him and eventually stop him within 7 rounds. If Spence sees that Crawford counter’s his punches well, is unable to hurt Crawford, and unable to land punches consistently, look for Spence to fight Crawford as he did Mikey Garcia by using a good jab, combinations, and the ring to box Crawford. If Spence fights Crawford on the outside by using his jab and uses good ring movement, Spence could cruise to a split decision victory. Spence fighting from the outside with his jab can try to bait Crawford to come in to catch him by surprise with a well-timed left hook. Spence must keep the jab in Crawford's face to disrupt his rhythm for as long as the fight last to prevail. Conditioning will be a BIG FACTOR as well as how much weight Spence had to lose to make the 147lbs welterweight limit. If Spence is weight drained from losing too much weight to reach the 147lbs limit, that may affect his conditioning and stamina. Spence must be able to keep the intensity of punches for the entire fight (12rounds) in the event he is unable to knock out Crawford. He must also not feed into the fact that because he is bigger than Crawford that is his major advantage because Crawford is used to defeating bigger fighters and is deceptively strong according to other trainers and fighters that have fought or sparred with him. What does Terrence Crawford have to do defeat Errol Spence Jr.? Thus far in Crawford's career, fighting bigger taller fighters has not been an issue as he has won all his 39 matches with 0 defeats. Crawford’s first official match at welterweight was the WBO title match back in 2017 against Jeff horn who is listed at 5’10 which is the same height Spence is listed as. Respectfully, Horn is not on Spence’s level in terms of talent, but he was a strong big fighter like Spence. Horn hit Crawford with a few good shots while the match lasted but in the end Crawford absorbed Horn’s punches and was able to stop the bigger Horn via TKO. Crawford must do what he does best which is to adapt to however Spence chooses to fight during the match. Because Spence is a southpaw fighter (left handed) Crawford must not circle to Spence’s left and stay out of range of Spence’s left hand. Crawford has an excellent way of adapting in fights as he can fight from the left stance or right stance to find a way to deliver his punches. Crawford knows how to set traps for other fighters he fights. He can press the action or he can use his jab and box. If a fighter tries to bully Crawford with a barrage of punches Crawford will not back down and throw a barrage of punches of his own as well. Spence referenced that with Crawford’s fight with Yuriorkis Gamboa. Gamboa hit Spence with a barrage of punches and seemed to stun Crawford who Crawford responded in the same fashion eventually stopping Gamboa in the 9th round. Crawford has to take Spence deep into the fight (later rounds) by not allowing Spence to impose his physicality on him and in the process Spence will have wasted meaningful energy which will make Spence susceptible to a stoppage like all 30 of Crawford’s opponents. This writer envisions that Spence will try to impose his will and size going for a knockout the first 3 rounds, but when is unable to knockout Crawford he will be baffled which is when the tide of the fight will turn creating momentum for Crawford. This writer picks an 8th round TKO for Crawford in a spectacular fashion. Boxing Notes WBC interim Supermiddleweight champion David Benavidez (27-0, 23KOs) is reportedly in discussion to fight WBA (regular) Super middleweight champion David Morrell (9-0, 8KOs). There are also reports that Benavidez is in discussion to fight former WBO Jr. Middleweight champion Jaime Munguia. Super middleweight contender Edgar Berlanga’s Promoter Eddie Hearn reportedly likes the idea of Munguia vs Berlanga. All these proposed fights sound great if any get signed. Whoever prevails out of the four (Benavidez, Munguia, Morrell, Berlanga) will make an excellent case for deserving a shot at the unified lineal super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez…Provided Former Heavy Weight champion Anthony Joshua defeats Dillian Whyte in a rematch in August 2023 and Former Heavy weight champion defeat fellow Heavyweight champion Wilder defeats fellow former Heavyweight champion Andy Ruiz, a long awaited fight between Joshua vs Wilder fight will be huge. Both Joshua and Wilder appear to be correcting flaws in their fight game with the addition of their respective Trainers. It will be interesting to see who will prevail between the two. ***Ralph Rimpell is a writer based out of New York and is a Boxing Correspondent for Philboxing.com. Ralph holds an undergraduate degree from City University of New York. He has been a Boxing Writer for over ten years having written for several top boxing websites on the World Wide Web. Before becoming a writer, Ralph's passion was for professional wrestling until he realized professional wrestling was entertainment and not a real sport. It was at that time the 1984 US Olympic team made up of future stars such as Evander Holyfield, Meldrick Taylor, Pernell Whitaker, etc. entered the professional ranks and signed with promotional outfit Main Events.It was also at that time a young exciting Heavyweight originally hailing from Brooklyn named Mike Tyson also turned professional and became the face of boxing. Young boxing fan Ralph just couldn't get enough of boxing as a large part of it was being broadcast on "free TV". As time went on, Ralph felt boxing writers were not being forthcoming with their boxing coverage, opinion pieces, interviews, etc. So Ralph decided to write an article and submitted it to a Boxing website thinking it would be deleted and ignored by the Editor. To Ralph's surprise his article was posted on their website and the readers embraced it. The rest is history. "I thank God for the Internet because it has created opportunities for writers like myself who likely would not have been given an opportunity to write for print publications. I hope someday soon to expand my role in Boxing on different levels." -- Ralph Rimpell Contact Writer: RLuvsboxing@aol.com Click here to view a list of other articles written by Ralph Rimpell.  |
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