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Philippines, 24 Jul 2026 |
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Spence vs Tszyu Fight Analysis and Prediction By Ralph Rimpell PhilBoxing.com Fri, 24 Jul 2026  On Saturday night, July 25, 2026 in the US (Sunday morning, July 26 in Sydney), after a 3-year layoff from the sport of boxing, former unified (WBA, WBC, IBF) welterweight champion (147 lbs) Errol Spence Jr. (28-1, 22 KOs) makes his ring return against former WBO welterweight champion Tim Tszyu (27-3, 18 KOs) in Australia. This is no doubt the biggest fight of the year in Australia and ranks as one of the biggest fights in 2026. The winner of this fight will likely go on to have bigger fights and bigger paydays (million-dollar paychecks). Reports are Spence is in line for a “Big Fight” against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in 2027 should he defeat Tszyu in impressive fashion. This will no doubt also depend on Canelo defeating WBC super middleweight (168 lbs) champion Christian Mbilli, which is reportedly now set for October 31, 2026, after it was initially set for September 2026. Also, popular contender junior middleweight (154 lbs) Victor Ortiz is reportedly available and has expressed a strong desire to fight Spence in Texas at AT&T Stadium, with the victor having hometown bragging rights for best fighter as both fighters grew up in Texas. There is also the possibility of fighting WBA/WBO unified champion Jaron Ennis or WBC champion Sebastian Fundora. In regard to future fights, Tszyu has surprisingly said he plans to continue fighting at middleweight (160 lbs) after the Spence fight. Respectfully, that appears to be an odd decision as the 154 lb division currently appears to be one of the most lucrative divisions in boxing. If Tszyu beats Spence, he can also make “Big Fights” at 154 lbs. Imagine Tszyu vs. Boots Ennis or Tszyu vs. Ortiz. All these scenarios for both fighters are possible for whoever wins between Spence and Tszyu this Saturday. Will this be Spence’s last fight, or does Spence want to truly revive his career? Hopefully, it’s the latter. Will this be Tszyu’s last fight if he loses? This Writer thinks this fight will be the last fight for whichever fighter loses.  On a different note, this Writer also thinks Spence may have gotten into Tszyu's head (playing psychological games) by refusing to shake Tszyu’s hand and be cordial during the first press conference to announce the fight. Tszyu appears angry at Spence and has recently said he will give Spence a *Benavidez-type of beating. This may play out well for Spence. What does Spence have to do to defeat Tszyu? Watching Tszyu's last two losses, which were to Fundora and Murtazaliev, both fighters swarmed Tszyu with consistent punching, constant pressure, and pure aggression. The pressure they applied did not allow Tszyu any rhythm to establish his jab and throw combinations. Because Spence may have already gotten into Tszyu's head, Spence won’t have to force him to brawl. Because of emotions, Tszyu will likely abandon any game plan he has going into the fight that was devised by his trainer, Fenech. In the Murtazaliev fight, Tszyu continually got hit with punches that hurt him to the point where he, admittedly after the fight, said he did not know where he was and lost the match. Spence must apply those same tactics, which are aggression and non-stop pressure. This is Spence’s style anyway. Spence is a come-forward type of fighter. Spence also must use good defense when he presses the action and not circle to Tszyu’s left, because Spence has difficulty fighting left-handed fighters. Terence Crawford fought Spence from the left-handed stance and dominated Spence, which resulted in a stoppage. While Tszyu is not a left-handed fighter, he does have the ability to switch stances to fight as a left-handed fighter when need be.  What does Tim Tszyu need to do to defeat Errol Spence? The blueprint for defeating Spence can be found by looking at both of his fights with Kell Brook and Terence Crawford. Even though Brook lost by TKO in the 11th round, he gave Spence plenty of boxing fits (landed multiple punches) due to his boxing ability and speed. In this Writer’s opinion, Brook was winning the fight against Spence and on his way to earning a decision victory, but he quit in the 11th round due to injury. In the Crawford fight, Spence was unable to adapt to Crawford’s southpaw style (left-handed stance) and kept getting tagged with left hands. Tszyu must fight an intelligent, disciplined fight. On fight night, Tszyu must forget about Spence’s slight of not shaking his hand at the press conference and any other insults during the promotion of the fight. Tszyu must not look for or try to get a knockout. If the knockout opportunity presents itself, he no doubt should seize it, but it should not be forced. Tszyu must fight Spence as a southpaw and use speed and boxing skills much like Kell Brook did. Spence also has a new trainer, as he has parted ways with now-former trainer Derrick James and has hired the respected Ronnie Shields. Shields is reportedly working on defense, combinations, etc. Spence has also reportedly stayed fit in the last three years, no longer blowing up to a reported 180 lbs. Therefore, Tszyu must fight a disciplined fight and stick to his game plan from the beginning of the first round to the last round. Tszyu must keep a constant jab in Spence’s face to disrupt his rhythm and throw good boxing combinations while keeping his distance from Spence’s punches. The winner of this fight will be the fighter who sticks to his game plan and is able to execute it during the fight. Tszyu will likely fight out of emotions (anger), which will cause him to make costly mistakes and lose. Therefore, this Writer picks Errol Spence to knock out Tszyu in the 7th round. Boxing Notes Promoter Eddie Hearn who promotes newly crowned WBA/WBO jr. middleweight champion Jaron “Boots” Ennis makes a strong case that Boots should receive the larger share of the fight revenue if they fight Vergil Ortiz who is represented by Promoter Oscar De La Hoya. For those who may not know, Boots and Hearns tried to make an Ennis and Ortiz fight months ago. However, Ortiz was embroiled in litigation with his Promoter, Oscar De La Hoya. In the interim, Boots defeated Xander Zayas who was a unified champion for the WBA/WBO belts. Boot’s stock has gone up tremendously. Now the litigation has been settled with De La Hoya, Ortiz is ready to fight Ennis. As Hearns puts it, Yesterday’s prices were yesterday’s price. Today’s prices are today’s prices. What that may may mean is Ortiz may have to take less money for a Boots fight to get signed…It will be interesting to see who fights the WBO 140lbs pound champion Shakur Stevenson now fights since that he signed to Zuffa Boxing. Rumors are he will fight former WBA 140 pound champion Rayo Valenzuela… Rumor also has it that Devin Haney will sign with DAZN. That seems odd as it was reported earlier that Haney had already signed a massive deal with Zuffa Boxing and the announcement was pending. Hopefully the boxing world will get clarification on who Haney is or will be working with. In the meantime, it’s also being reported Devin Haney and WBO number # 1 contender and former WBO lightweight champion Keyshawn Davis are in negotiations to fight since the WBO has ordered a purse bid. Keyshawn may not be ready for a Haney because of lack of experience. It may have been better for Keyshawn to fight a few more fights at 140lbs and win a world title at that weight before moving to 147lbs to fight Haney. Perhaps (this Writer) is incorrect and Keyshawn defeats Haney in what would be the boxing upset of 2026. ***Ralph Rimpell is a writer based out of New York and is a Boxing Correspondent for Philboxing.com. Ralph holds an undergraduate degree from City University of New York. He has been a Boxing Writer for over ten years having written for several top boxing websites on the World Wide Web. Before becoming a writer, Ralph's passion was for professional wrestling until he realized professional wrestling was entertainment and not a real sport. It was at that time the 1984 US Olympic team made up of future stars such as Evander Holyfield, Meldrick Taylor, Pernell Whitaker, etc. entered the professional ranks and signed with promotional outfit Main Events.It was also at that time a young exciting Heavyweight originally hailing from Brooklyn named Mike Tyson also turned professional and became the face of boxing. Young boxing fan Ralph just couldn't get enough of boxing as a large part of it was being broadcast on "free TV". As time went on, Ralph felt boxing writers were not being forthcoming with their boxing coverage, opinion pieces, interviews, etc. So Ralph decided to write an article and submitted it to a Boxing website thinking it would be deleted and ignored by the Editor. To Ralph's surprise his article was posted on their website and the readers embraced it. The rest is history. "I thank God for the Internet because it has created opportunities for writers like myself who likely would not have been given an opportunity to write for print publications. I hope someday soon to expand my role in Boxing on different levels." -- Ralph Rimpell Contact Writer: RLuvsboxing@aol.com Click here to view a list of other articles written by Ralph Rimpell.  |
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