“Absolution- will be yours.”
Victor, from Underworld
We got our first look at Manny Pacquiao and Brandon Rios face-to-face months ago in China, in what promises to be a blockbuster for boxing. If the beautiful Venetian Resort & Casino in Macao has a line on how much action this fight will produce, you can bet the farm or anything you own- that Pacquiao vs. Rios will be a guaranteed action fight.
This much we know.
But by the time he gets back in the ring this weekend, it will have been two years since Manny Pacquiao last raised his hand in victory, and even then we weren’t so sure.
Juan Manuel Marquez stormed out of the ring after part III devoid of absolution. He would get it a year later over his arch nemesis, in what we all know was as dramatic a victory as any fighter can have.
This is just an observation, but what Pacquiao needs more than total peace and prosperity in his beloved Phillipines, is an epic action fight and an emphatic victory. Hell its been four years (basically one of Obama’s presidential terms) since he’s had a knockout, and right now he’s behind on points.
Of all of the opponents on the horizon not named Marquez, the one that made the most sense for him to fight next- is Brandon Rios.
Forget that he lost his last fight to Mike Alvarado.
So what.
He looked every bit the crowd pleasing performer true fight fans love, and has a persona that’s just made to sell tickets. Plus stylistically, and in boxing terms as far as a matchup with Pacquiao goes, this fight just has all kinds of sex appeal. HBO and Top Rank have had a field day promoting it, and this upcoming episode of HBO 24/7 will probably be the best edition since Floyd Mayweather famously went after his father.
The Pacquiao and Rios fight just got a whole lot more intersting on the heels of beef boiled over between their trainers. Freddie Roach single-handedly went after Rios’s entire team and media correspondent Elie Seckbach. I thought he could’ve handled it better, and merely sent an official over to Team Rios to let them know that he was ready to proceed with his camp’s preparation. Alex Ariza kicks Freddie, Freddie wants to kill him, people start mocking and charging after Freddie, Jews got insulted, slurs started flying across the room, Robert Garcia got hot, etc, etc…
And we love it.
This fight is now “guaranteed” to do mega-business because of this meltdown across the entire Asian peninsular and all around the world. I can tell that the only one who hasn’t really ran his mouth on both sides, Manny Pacquiao, has a strong dislike of Brandon Rios. I could really see this in their “Face-Off” with Max Kellerman, and the first two episodes of HBO’s award winning show didn’t help things. Pacquiao got a huge jumpstart on training prior to formally opening camp in early October in the Philippines, and Rios feels this is the most prepared he’s ever been for any fight.
With the near fisticuffs having already been exchanged by men designed to prepare others to do it, Pacquiao and Rios will get it on, in what now has the feeling of a good old fashioned after-school fight in the parking lot.
Here’s how I see it.
PACQUIAO VS. RIOS: THE BLOODY FORECAST
I thought Pacquiao looked great (the best in years actually) against Marquez in December of 2012, before running into a right hand with Unisom sprinkled all over it in the 6th round. It is amazing what a single shot can do to alter public perception. But Manny Pacquiao didn’t become the sports’ only eight division champion or a congressman for nothing, and you cannot bomb him out of belief in himself.
Not only that- but the advanced sophistication of what has to be the game’s most beautiful footwork, a fastidious and spartan-like approach to training, and the mentality of a conquering Emperor, just doesn’t go away. He will come to the ring with the same child-like enthusiam we’ve seen from him in the past, in fantastic condition, and ready to fight. Rios for his part, will bring his kill or be killed mentality to the table, while looking to hunt and chop down his frenetic paced foe.
He will be killed.
Rios, based on what I see, will fight Manny like a poor man’s Miguel Cotto. The gameplan from Team Rios calls for a systematic and methodical attack of Pacquiao, complete with power shots to the body and a gradual breakdown of the Filipino icon. The problem is, he isn’t nearly as talented as the Puerto Rican star and is more of a plodder than he’d like to think. His feet are too heavy and his upper body too stiff- to deal with the whirling menace he’s about to encounter. He’ll find Pacquiao to be as unpredictable as a bouncing football on concrete.
Pacquiao is going to fight Rios with a controlled rage. Guided by his own need for redemption, the recent tragedy of the Phillipines and yesterday’s turn of events involving his trainer, the version of Pacquiao you are about to see will be nothing short of spectacular. Because Rios is such a committed warrior, he is going to take a committed ass beating from start to finish.
Unable to match the offensive fireworks that Pacquiao is capable of, or the creative way he executes his offense, Rios will be overwhelmed and shell-shocked by Pacquiao. His footwork, footspeed, handspeed and defense (yes, defense) will all work in tandem to just pick Brandon apart. I believe Pacquiao will also seriously hurt Rios to the body as well.
Bothered by Manny’s uncanny movement and dexterity, Rios will feel like he’s fighting him in 3D with no glasses on. If you thought he got hit a lot opposite Mike Alvarado, you should probably add a multiple of two this time. I’m inclined to shorten my prediction, but I won’t, only because I think Pacquiao will be so sadistic on Rios that he may actually carry him a few rounds.
A breathtaking action fight while it lasts, Manny Pacquiao will breakdown and annihilate a very game Brandon Rios in the 8th round by KO, TKO victory, or merciful stoppage by his corner, and restore balance to the universe.
Or so it will seem in the Philippines.
