Its been 18 days since former lineal jr middleweight champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez experienced defeat for the first time at the hands of Floyd Mayweather.
So what’s next for the 23 year old star who, along with Adrien Broner, seemingly represents the future of boxing?
Team Alvarez is in a difficult situation and there are three important factors that will come into play when selecting his next opponent.
1. No Journeymen: Given Canelo’s star status, the public won’t accept a tune-up fight. He’ll have to face a legitimate top 10 opponent to maintain or retain credibility.
2. World Title Needed Soon: Sure, Floyd Mayweather will be the acknowledged champion in the jr middleweight division but major world titles, saturated or not, still carry a lot of significance and Team Alvarez will undoubtedly be targeting the IBF and/or WBO jr middleweight straps sometime soon. (Mayweather owns the WBC and WBA titles).
If he doesn’t fight for a title immediately, he shouldn’t do anything to hinder his chances for a title shot following his next bout.
3. Losing: If he loses his second bout in as many fights, the repercussions could be devastating. The public will give him a pass for his underwhelming performance against Mayweather because ‘Money May’ is the consensus top gun and has far more experience. But if Alvarez, seemingly boxing’s future global star, losses his next bout, his credibility will sink faster than a penny in water. Remember Victor Ortiz? He was near the pinnacle of the boxing world in 2011… and then lost two straight.
So there lies the quandary: Alvarez must face a top tier opponent who, at the same time, posses a minimal threat.
Let’s take a look at prospective next opponents for Canelo Alvarez.
1. Miguel Cotto (37-4, 30 KO), Jr middleweight (3-2, 3 KO) Pros: Canelo is naturally bigger and stronger than Miguel and one could argue the match-up, stylistically, favors Alvarez. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Alvarez slotted as the favorite. Moreover, Cotto is a fight legend so Cotto vs Canelo would be a lucrative endeavor, and possibly a superfight of sorts.
Cons: Unless Miguel Cotto resembles a vulnerable, washed-up shadow of his former self in defeating Delvin Rodriguez this weekend, the Puerto Rican would be too much risk for the reward, despite the fanfare Canelo vs Cotto would receive.
Miguel Cotto is an experienced legend with a deep amateur and professional pedigree. If the same Cotto who bloodied Mayweather faces Alvarez, Canelo runs the risk of committing that dreaded faux pas…. dropping two in a row.
Bottom Line: Had Canelo defeated Floyd, Cotto would have been a shoe-in for Alvarez’s next opponent. But, keep in mind, two consecutive losses, even to fight legends, would badly hinder Canelo’s drawing power and credibility. Alvarez needs a win, and preferably a dominant performance or two, before engaging in another risky bout. Cotto, although highly enticing, is not the guy right now.
Erislandy Lara (18-1-2, 12 KO) Pros: Very few. The sport’s hardcore contingent will give Team Alvarez props for facing such a tough opponent but that’s about it.
Cons: Many. For starters, Erislandy Lara is extremely dangerous. He’d even be a formidable and risky opponent for Floyd. He’s an explosive, awkward southpaw with punching power in both hands who can box and brawl. Furthermore, he doesn’t hold a major world title nor does he have the name recognition to make Canelo vs Lara a true superfight. (Even though that label would be fitting, skills-wise).
Bottom Line: Lara is far too much risk for the reward at this moment. Canelo should avoid this guy until a) Alvarez becomes champion and Lara is a mandatory opponent or b) Lara attains more mainstream appeal or a larger fan base via a win over Austin Trout or another top 10 jr middleweight. Losing to Mayweather or Cotto is acceptable but getting beat by a fella many casual fans have never heard of would be a devastating set back to Team Alvarez given he’s already coming off a loss. In the eyes of some boxing experts, a Lara victory over Canelo would be a “tiny” upset at best.
Victor Ortiz (29-4-2, 22 KO) Weltwerweight (1-2, 0 KO); Jr middlweight (0-0) Pros: Like Canelo Alvarez today, Victor Ortiz was once considered a future star but after suffering back-to-back losses to Mayweather and Josesito Lopez, his stock plummeted.
Canelo is naturally bigger than Ortiz and Victor hasn’t fought in over a year so the rust factor would certainly make Victor an enticing option for Team Alvarez. Moreover, Ortiz, despite the fact he’s fallen off fans’ radar a bit, is still a well-respected, fairly mainstream fighter and has a large enough fanbase to help make Canelo vs Ortiz high-profile and lucrative.
Cons: Will Golden Boy, who promotes both fighters, sew of the seeds of Ortiz’s destruction by placing Victor in a high-risk situation that could very well result in his third consecutive loss?
Bottom Line: Apparently, had Ortiz defeated Lopez in Summer 2012, Victor would have faced Canelo last year instead of Josesito. However, Victor wouldn’t have entered the ring coming off two straight loses.
Is Golden Boy really ready to ‘throw in towel’ on Ortiz? Do they not see a future for him at 147 lbs or 154 lbs? If Golden Boy still considers Ortiz one of its treasures, don’t put your hopes in Canelo vs Ortiz… at least not right away.
Cornelius ‘K9’ Bundrage (32-5, 19 KO) Pros: Where do we begin? He’s a former IBF Jr Middleweight Champion less than a year removed. K9 wields respect and credibility in the boxing community and would help make Canelo vs K9 a decent draw.
In addition, Bundrage, at 40 years old, has looked closer to 60 in his last two bouts – a real sizzle for Team Alvarez. Furthermore, although Bundrage boasts two wins over Cory Spinks, he hasn’t faced an opponent near Alvarez’s level. Ding! Ding! Past his prime or not, Bundrage is a legitimate top 10 jr middleweight with formidable power and the favorite against anyone not in the division’s top 10.
Canelo would enjoy a three inch height advantage over K9 and would match-up well, stylistically, against the former IBF Champ.
Cons: Bundrage doesn’t have a massive following or a world title.
Bottom Line: This could be a nice showcase fight for Canelo, and K9 has enough power to keep fans on edge during the bout. The ultimate question is: Would K9 be able to land his bombs and avoid or absorb Alvarez’s?
And the likely answer to that two-part question is: No and no.
Team Alvarez should strongly consider this option.
Alfredo Angulo (22-3, 18 KO) Pros: This hard-charging Mexican has a quality reputation and has shared the ring with top-notch opponents such as James Kirkland, Gabriel Rosado, Kermit Cintron and Erislandy Lara.
And sans Gennady Golovkin, he “may” be the most destructive puncher south of 168 lbs. His agression and punching power, alone, would make for an intriguing, fan-friendly match-up.
And much to the liking of Team Alvarez, his defensive prowess leaves much to be desired and would likely leave him vulnerable to an explosive sharp-shooter like Canelo.
Cons: He doesn’t have a world title, and he’ll be dangerous until the end, thanks to his power and durability. In June, he floored Erislandy Lara twice – and hard – despite eventually getting stopped. Canelo vs Angulo would be a dogfight for as long as it lasted.
Bottom Line: Angulo is not the safest option out there – But Canelo is far more sound fundamentally and certainly intuitive and explosive enough to capitalize on Angulo’s defensive flaws and eventually knockout Alfredo inside of ten rounds.
Carlos Molina (22-5-2, 6 KO) Pros: On the undercard of Mayweather vs Canelo, the awkward, slippery Molina dethroned Ishe Smith to win the IBF Jr Middleweight strap, something Team Alvarez is probably coveting at the moment. Carlos Molina is boxing’s ‘hard luck’ fighter and, thanks to a few flukes, has lost some bouts he clearly should have won. Nevertheless, he doesn’t have the experience or craft of a Miguel Cotto, the speed of a Floyd Mayweather or the punching power or explosiveness of an Erislandy Lara or Alfredo Angulo to pose a major threat to Alvarez. Partial ding, ding!
Cons: Carlos Molina, due to his agility and awkwardness, can make anyone look bad, as James Kirkland and Erislandy Lara would attest. Even in victory, Canelo may be less-than-scintillating against Molina.
Bottom Line: Canelo Alvarez would become a champion again by defeating Carlos Molina but may have to tread through muddy waters in an ugly, unsavory fight to do it. Molina is well-capable of smothering Canelo’s power so Team Alvarez may have to look elsewhere if they are seeking a true “showcase” for Canelo’s next fight.
Honorable Mention: Vanes Martirosyan (32-0-1, 22KO) Vanes undoubtedly has the size, speed and skill to pose a legitimate threat to Alvarez. However, given they are attached to rival promoters it’s difficult to see how Canelo vs Martirosyan comes to fruition anytime soon because it, unlike Cotto vs Canelo, would fail to stimulate a large enough buzz to make it worthwhile for Team Alvarez and his promoter, Golden Boy.
Canelo’s best options for next fight In the end, Canelo’s best options are the following (and in proper order):
1. K9 Bundrage (possible showcase but no title) 2. Carlos Molina (world title, but not likely a showcase) 3. Alfredo Angulo (possible showcase but no title; Canelo has little room for errors in bout)
