“The One,” scheduled for September 14, at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, will feature Mexican star, Saul “El Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1) against the man universally regarded as the best in the business, Floyd Mayweather, Jr. (44-0).
There have been several superfight match-ups in recent years that have resembled Mayweather vs Canelo in backdrop and the respective styles of the combatants.
Julio Cesar Chavez v. Pernell Whitaker (1993): Like Mayweather, Whitaker was a skilled boxer who used movement to befuddle his opponents and attain status as the best fighter of his time. Unlike Mayweather, Whitaker was a southpaw.
Chavez was an aggressive Mexican fighter who, like Canelo, would happily eat three punches to land one.
On this night, however, he was a shopworn 31 year-old, who had been through too many wars to keep up with the slick Whitaker.
A younger Chavez may have achieved a better result than the eventual and controversial draw.
Pernell Whitaker v. Oscar De La Hoya (1997): By this point, the 33 year old Whitaker was nearing the end of his reign atop the rankings and was facing what many believed was his young, Mexican heir apparent.
At 23, De La Hoya was quick enough to cut off the ring and connect against Whitaker. The Golden Boy would win a unanimous decision.
Again, this tilt differs from Mayweather vs Alvarez in that Whitaker was a southpaw. What many don’t know is that Oscar was also a southpaw, but typically used an orthodox stance. In addition to styles, this fight featured two men at similar career stages to present-day Mayweather and Alvarez.
Oscar De La Hoya v. Floyd Mayweather (2007): The only boxer, in recent history, to capture a score card against Floyd was De La Hoya on this night, in 2007. The Golden Boy was competitive in the first half of the bout, largely due to his jab. As the fight wore on, Oscar would succumb to the younger Mayweather’s conditioning.
Had De La Hoya been 23 (as is Canelo) rather than 33, he may not have faded down the stretch.
Floyd Mayweather v. Jose Luis Castillo I (2002): Castillo, a rough and tumble Mexican, smothered Mayweather and, arguably, landed more shots than any other Floyd opponent.
Like Canelo, Castillo was a violent body puncher and was smart enough to realize that the head was too tough a target.
Floyd escaped with a decision victory, but many reputable media outlets scored this fight for Castillo.
Have 44 really failed?
Ray Leonard v. Roberto Duran I (1980): “Sugar” Ray was, perhaps, the most comparable fighter to Mayweather in modern history. Like Floyd, Leonard was intelligent and would routinely slip and slide away from his opponent. He was like a professional dancer in the ring, and was nearly unbeatable when at his best.
In this first encounter with Duran, Leonard uncharacteristically fought toe-to-toe with one of the best punchers in boxing history.
A legendary fight ensued, but the result was not good for Ray, who suffered his first professional defeat. In the unlikely event that Mayweather employs a similar style to that which he used against Miguel Cotto, fans could be treated to an epic battle.
Can We Learn Anything From These Bouts? There is not a carbon copy of Mayweather/Alvarez among the above mentioned, but, if we examine closely, there are some detectable trends. It seems clear, that in order to compete with a Mayweather-type, the opponent’s arsenal must include: 1) youthful stamina, 2) enough speed to cut off the ring, 3) a jab and 4) ability to score to the body.
Canelo possesses all four.
Those who are most informed, the odds-makers, have installed Mayweather as a 2-1 favorite.
This is an historically low number for Floyd, who has not been less than a 5-1 favorite in any of his three most recent fights, and has not been less than a 3-1 favorite since his famed battle with De La Hoya in 2007.
We need only look back to August 24th of this year to find an upset of a 14-1 favorite (Abner Mares). By the numbers, an Alvarez win would not be a big surprise.
