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Saul Alvarez Surprise: Ignore Catchweight?

Floyd Mayweather vs Sa?l ?lvarez is slated to be fought at a catchweight of 152 lbs.

At this moment, it’s still unclear about who made that suggestion as the officially-sanctioned limit for jr middleweight is 154 lbs.

However, most believe the idea was conceived by Team Mayweather.

Floyd is the naturally smaller man, having turned pro as a 130 lb jr lightweight while Alvarez, quite large for a jr middleweight, started off as a 147 lb welterweight.

The catchweight may lessen Alvarez’s size and perceived strength advantages therby making the stipulation advatageous to Floyd.

So… What if Saul Alvarez, who may be on the verge of outgrowing the jr middleweight division, tips the scales at 154 lbs come Friday?

Will Canelo Alvarez be stripped of his titles if he fails to make the stipulated 152 lbs?

Fact: Despite the catchweight agreement, there are no title implications if Saul misses the 152 lb mark so long as Alvarez weighs no more than 154 lbs at the weigh-in Friday. Should he win Saturday, he would retain his WBC/WBA belts as well as his status as the lineal jr middleweight champion.

What’s the fine for missing the contractually-agreed weight limit?

Golden Boy Promotions isn’t telling us what the penalty is if a fighter fails to make 152 lbs.

Most of the time, the fine is levied on a per-pound-basis and can range from $10,000 per pound to $500,000 or more, depending on the fight’s anticipated revenue.

Can a fighter cancel if his opponent fails to make weight? In theory, a fighter can opt out and it has happened before for high-profile events but even those fine cards were pale in comparison to Saturday’s mega event.

No one is cancelling this one.

This card is far too big. Moreover, the fighter who pulls out because his opponent failed to make weight by 2 or 3 pounds would be punished far more, by the media and public, than the “guilty” fighter who missed weight.

Canelo vs Hatton In 2011, Saul Alvarez missed the catchweight of 150 lbs against Matthew Hatton. While Alvarez failed to make the contractually-agreed weight by 1.8 pounds, he still won the vacant WBC junior middleweight title because his weight was well below the officially-sanctioned weight limit of 154 lbs.

Looking back, it was a wise move for Canelo and Golden Boy. Although someone (Canelo imself, Team Alvarez or Golden Boy ) had to pay a handsome fine to Team Hatton for Alvarez’s failure to make the catchweight, Canelo was able to enter at a more comfortable weight, win a major world title and become a star.

Will Team Alvarez roll those same dice Saturday?

If, hypothetically, someone has to pay Team Mayweather $1 Million USD for every pound Canelo weighs above 152 Canelo, it’s a mere $2 Million fine if Alvarez tips the scales at 154 lbs.

Why might be Team Alvarez be considering this strategy?

1) It worked before It’s all ready worked once and paid major dividends.

2) Mayweather missed it too If Team Alvarez is worried about all the criticism they’ll receive from Team Mayweather if Saul Alvarez fails to make the catchweight, they can point to Mayweather vs Marquez in 2009.

Mayweather, at 146 lbs, weighed-in 2 pounds over the contracted weight and was forced to pay Marquez $600,000 ($300,000 per pound).

3) Stress less If you are Canelo Alvarez, not having to stress yourself to make weight is one less worry for you and Team Alvarez, and will enable the camp to focus more on other things, such as fight strategy and all of the other elements of mental preparation.

4) Strength Canelo is looking thin and still has to lose 5.4 lbs. He may be stronger and better, physically, if he doesn’t to drain himself Wednesday, Thursday and most of Friday to shed the extra 2 lbs.

At 154 lbs, Canelo’s chances of winning increase, not decrease.

5) Earning millions anyway Team Alvarez will earn millions from this bout anyway and the 23 year old Canelo, so long as he doesn’t embarrass himself, will retain rock star status, even in defeat. As a result, it might be worth gambling a large sum of money to improve his chances of becoming a star on the same level as Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao.

The biggest question lingers: What’s the penalty for failing to make the catchweight?

Regardless, don’t be surprised if Alvarez misses the contractually-stipulated weight of 152 lbs but makes the officially-sanctioned weight of 154 lbs.

———

Floyd Mayweather Record: 44-0, 26 KO Saul Alvarez Record: 42-0-1, 30 KO

Mayweather vs Canelo Weigh-In: Friday, September 13 Mayweather vs Canelo Date: Saturday, September 14, 2013

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