Over the past few months most boxing experts and writers have been, for the most part predicting, a Mayweather victory over Sa?l Canelo ?lvarez.
… And for the most part, it’s understanable why.
(Pics courtesy of Showtime)
But give Alvarez credit for, first of all, beating Austin Trout (which some of us didn’t expect) and, secondly, for being a legitimate threat to the pound-for-pound king’s crown.
On paper, Mayweather’s advantages are many, but as we all know one can’t fight a fight on paper.
So what must Alvarez do to upset the champ and shock the world?
Technique Canelo Alvarez, technically, does a lot of things well. He was able to make Trout miss with the jab and then counter with his own jab. His head movement along with him moving in a circle made it a lot harder to hit him with any effective punches. His ring smarts have definitely been a factor in his undefeated record.
alvarezlandsonlopez The kid knows his strengths and how to set them up. He stalks his man and is very patient in doing so. He doesn’t waste punches but times his opponent very well.
Timing is going to be the key against Mayweather. Alvarez will have to do everything he knows how to do which is move his head and move in a circle. The hardest thing for him is going to be time Floyd’s attack. Mayweather is patient as well, and doesn’t lead the same way each time. He has been able to throw off his opponent’s timing and take control of the fight in all 44 of his bouts. These traits along with Mayweather’s speed definitely make Floyd the favorite.
Size Alvarez is going to have to use his size advantage along with the skills he has shown up to this point throughout his career.
He will need to stalk Floyd but from the right distance, meaning he will have to leave a step between him and Mayweather which will force Floyd to take a step in order to land his punches. This will, first of all, give Canelo more time to react to the faster man, giving him a better chance of timing Mayweather. Secondly, it will prevent Floyd from landing shots at-will because he will have to step into a fire fight with a bigger man in order to win rounds. For that reason, it is extremely important that Alvarez times Mayweather’s attacks and punches back with combinations each time.
Make Him Pay He has to make Mayweather pay for whatever shots he lands. Mayweather is going to roll away after his attacks. When Floyd lands a right hand, he rolls under the counter and to his opponent’s left hand side.
Canelo Alvarez lands a left jab on Austin Trout in April 2013 canelopunchestrout As a result, Alvarez will have to anticipate the roll (even if he gets hit with the shot) and meet him with a left hook.
Floyd likes to smother after the roll when his opponent steps forward to counter, so Alvarez will have to see it coming and step back with his back leg and still be in position to punch. He can’t allow Mayweather to grab him after he punches.
Guerrero did it a few times against Mayweather early on but after taking flush shots, it got too difficult to continue punching back. So Alvarez is going to have to leave an extra step and keep circling. If he does all these things (which he has shown that he can) he can make it a difficult fight for Mayweather.
Mayweather vs Canelo Prediction At the end of the day, I still predict that Mayweather will win only because there are too many things he does well and his speed advantage is going to be hard to deal with. But this is boxing and anything can happen. As we all know, it doesn’t matter what “can happen” but only what “does happen.”
So we will see September 14th. It will be a great card and great fight.
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Mayweather vs Canelo Date: September 14, 2013 Time: 9 PM EST, 02:00 UK * Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV USA Broadcast: Showtime PPV in the U.S.
Mayweather vs Canelo Odds: (As of August 20) Mayweather is roughly a -300 favorite. Alvarez’s plus 230 betting odds are much better than Mayweather’s recent opponents.
