Over the past several weeks, there?s been a growing groundswell of writers and media hailing the Manny Pacquiao vs. Brandon Rios bout, scheduled for November 23rd in Macau, China, as a 50/50, pick ’em fight. I just don?t see it that way. I realize I?m in the minority, so here is the minority report so to speak.
I was fine with the concept of Rios as a comeback opponent for Pacquiao [pictured] when the fight was originally rumored as a tune-up of sorts for April, May or June. Understandably, April was too quick a comeback fight for Pacquaio following his canvas-kissing horrific knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez late last year. After all, promoter Bob Arum had penciled in Pacquiao’s April date prior to Pacquiao’s loss to Marquez on December 8th, 2012. But a single Marquez right hand changed everything Team Pacquaio. As a tune-up, this matchup is fine. After a knockout loss, Pacquiao deserves a tune-up before stepping back up to the very highest level of competition.
Roy Jones Jr. once thought he was getting a tune-up in Glen Jonnson and wound up getting knocked out. You might think you can see where I?m going with this, but this isn?t an “anything can happen when two men step in the ring” column. This is a gauge to see if Pacquaio can bounce back to the level where elite pay-per-view fights can be made. Pacquiao-Rios is an HBO-level boxing telecast, not a pay-per-view event. Rios is made to order for Pacquaio in every sense of the word. The man who Richard Abril rightfully outpointed (it is officially a decision win for Rios, but an unjust one) has nothing that Pacquiao hasn?t seen and beaten before.
And reports of Pacquaio displaying significant slippage over his last four fights are overblown. People forget just how good he actually looked vs. Marquez, prior to getting knocked out. That?s boxing. It happens. He was caught by a man who not only always given him hell in three prior fights, but also, Marquez is a man with a ring IQ far superior to that of Rios.
Pacquaio is arguably one of the top three elite welterweights on the planet (Mayweather, Marquez, Pacquaio). In Rios, he is fighting not only a smaller man, but someone I have ranked #7 in the JUNIOR welterweight division. I can name six 140-pounders I personally rate higher than Rios, and who I believe would beat Rios at 140: Lucas Matthysse, Danny Garcia, Lamont Peterson, Zab Judah, Ajose Olusegon and Mike Alvarado (Alvarado actually did beat Rios in a March rematch of a 2012 Rios win). While watching Rios-Alvarado II, I became convinced Pacquiao would destroy either of these fighters. If Alvarado?s shots stiffened the legs of Rios, what would Pacquaio?s shots do?
This November in Macau, my instincts tell me that Pacquaio will impressively defeat Rios. However, we must keep in perspective that this is what is supposed to happen when an elite guy, faces a non-elite guy from a smaller weight class. Rios who showed trouble adjusting to the boxing and movement of Alvarado. Rios who was fortunate to get a split decision over Abril Pacman is far more athletic, and has far superior feet than Mike Alvarado (who beat Rios in his last fight).
Something also a side-note worth mentioning is a trend that troubles me. Floyd Mayweather, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, Pacquaio and Miguel Cotto to a degree are considered ?money? fighters in boxing. Fighters work very hard to secure ?lottery tickets? (the opportunity and accompanying payday) by earning shots at one of the aforementioned boxers. Arum too frequently has adopted the concept of rewarding the losing fighter with the big opportunity, while the winning fighter is left in limbo to languish. For example, Zahir Raheem defeated Erik Morales in 2005, but Morales got a big money rematch vs. Pacquaio in 2006 while Raheem languished. Now we have the same thing happening again. Alvarado defeated Rios, yet it is Rios who will get to cash his lottery ticket vs. Pacquiao in Macau, with Alvarado at home watching on pay-per-view with no fight scheduled at the moment. This has become too frequent in boxing.
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