Robert Guerrero is a huge underdog Saturday in his welterweight championship fight with Floyd Mayweather.
Which is precisely why I drove to South Lake Tahoe on March 12 and plunked down a $300 bet on Guerrero at Harrah?s. If Guerrero pulls the upset, I?ll net more than $2,000. A $1,000 bet on Mayweather would have returned only $100 if Floyd wins. The odds have since become only two-third as lopsided, but that’s plenty lopsided.
However, I?m on the record as having told Showtime, which is televising the bout pay-per-view, that Mayweather will win by majority decision, an entertaining fight that will raise Guerrero?s stock.
Still, that bet on Guerrero (31-1-1, 18 knockouts) to win looks pretty good, and I?m certainly not alone. If he doesn?t get cut too badly by repeated straight rights from the fast-handed Floyd, he can not only inflict more damage on Mayweather than anyone else in the pound-for-pound kingpin?s 43-0 career, but also can win the fight.
He already has done a good job of brushing off Mayweather?s verbal onslaught.
?It doesn’t get to me because I’m ready for this,? Guerrero said. ?I’m mentally ready for this, mentally focused. I’ve been through far worse things than standing in front of Floyd or listening to him talk and getting mad about it?
Guerrero?s mental toughness is just one more reason Mayweather has never been more ripe for picking. Floyd has trouble with left-handers and definitely found the big lefty Victor Ortiz a handful in 2011. He was forced into exchanges with Miguel Cotto in his last outing, a year ago. He?s 36 and can?t be the fastest man in the sport forever. And he?s much the worse for wear following last summer?s jail stint, not to mention a year?s ring rust.
As Guerrero noted, ?I’ve been out a whole year (before) and fought, and jumped right in with a hard puncher, and you can feel the punches different. So it takes a little time to shake that ring rust off.?
Mayweather knows Guerrero has power after seeing Robert knock down Andre Berto twice in the first four minutes of his impressive upset victory last November, so Guerrero figures Floyd will reckon with that danger, at least.
?After the beating I put on Berto, you’ve got to take somebody seriously, because you know they come out to punish,? Guerrero said. ?So I know for sure Floyd Mayweather is taking me seriously. Especially being out for a whole year, you know, like he said, I mean, it’s been his longest training camp in a long time and he’s putting in the work and the time that he needs to be ready for the fight, but that isn’t going to make a difference, because I know his body size. You can see it. Being a whole year laid off, he’s going to feel the punches.?
Mayweather is also the worse for being unaware of Guerrero?s range of attributes, beginning with his surprise, in Guerrero?s estimation,of the physical magnitude of Robert?s expansion from 126 pounds to 147.
At the same time, Mayweather seems unaware of why they call Guerrero ?The Ghost? in the first place. His elusiveness, largely because of his early grasp of footwork and other boxing basics, inspired the nickname.
It appears Mayweather has no grasp of how well-schooled Guerrero is, considering he has branded Guerrero ?a grappler? who ?fights flat-footed.? While it?s true Guerrero sets down on his punches a lot more as a welterweight as he did in his featherweight days, he has shown a much wider range of talent in his career than Mayweather seems to be expecting. Floyd seems to think Guerrero will simply come after him, bull vs. matador.
?That’s been everybody’s game plan,? Mayweather said, ?to keep pressure. So like I said before, as long as everybody’s got the same game plan I’m gonna keep having the same game plan.?
In fact, Mayweather admits that he doesn?t have a game plan. He will adjust in the ring to whatever Guerrero brings.
Just as Nonito Donaire did three weeks ago with no game plan against Guillermo Rigondeaux.
This fight is beginning to smell like that one, and my $300 seems to be money well spent.
