In part II of the 2007 preview, we hit a talented but star starved jr. featherweight division, and navigate up through the TV-friendly welterweight division. If HBO is going to re-energize itself and regain lost ground from Showtime, who did not outperform HBO as clearly as 2005, these are the divisions to focus upon. They are full of eye catching possibilities, and boast fights where marquee fighters could pass on the torch to young new stars. Or HBO can follow up on last year’s strategy, and ask fans for $44.95 to see Oleg Maskaev repeat his victory over Hasim Rahman. Sadly, I think HBO is set on throwing its money behind the word ‘heavyweight’ instead of quality.
Jr. Featherweight:
My top ten: Israel Vazquez 40-3 Celestino Caballero 25-2 Ricardo Cordoba 28-1-1 Daniel Ponce De Leon 30-1 Jhonny Gonzalez 33-5 Steve Molitor 23-0 Somsak Sithchatchawal 46-2-1 Sergio Medina 25-0 Gabula Vabaza 23-0-1 Poonsawat Kratingaegym 24-0 Takalni Ndlovu 27-3
Champ who will stay: Israel Vazquez – He is in his prime at 28, and over the last year has defeated the two best challengers available to him in Oscar Larios and Jhonny Gonzalez. I am going to ride this wave of exuberance and experience for the next calendar year, and hope Vazquez gets treated fairly if he meets any of his top five challengers, who all hail from Asia, on their home turf. He easily sports the best combination of skill, maturity, title experience, power, and promotional backing in this division.
Champ who will go: Daniel Ponce De Leon – I find De Leon’s raw and unrefined style of fighting a joy to watch, but this has historically made for short title reigns. Once Monshipour retired, it left De Leon as the most fun jr. featherweight to see in action, and that exuberance will have some stylistic challenges to deal with in the WBO’s top ten. He does have an advantage in that most of his challengers never fought for a title, and also lack international experience. Still, if you had to choose between solid champs Israel Vasquez, Celestino Cabbalero (who beat De Leon), and a smooth boxing Steve Molitor retaining their titles, or a 26 year old slugger who lost in his biggest step up before winning the title, who would you choose?
Will rise in 2007: Rey Bautista – Would like to see him mature a bit physically, as he is only 20, but has defeated the required mix of retreads and fringe contenders in 2006. Might well have the fastest hands in the division, and puts combinations together well when comfortable. Showed good maturity and patience in coming back from an early knockdown against Gerardo Espinoza to outbox his foe in a short eight round bout. I would like to see him beat four more guys in 2006 – a former champ would be nice – before moving into a title shot. But his recent hiring of Freddie Roach indicates a 2007 championship fight.
Needs to leave in 2007: Kermin Guardia – The 36 year old Colombian came back from a two year layoff to post a 2-1 record, with his win coming over a sub .500 boxer who won one fight over the last two years. Was a decent strawweight champ back in 2001, but even then lost badly when he stepped up against Ricardo Lopez and Rosendo Alvarez. His southpaw style will get Guardia fights against prospects and contenders, but how much can be learned by beating up on a elderly light hitting former champ fighting four divisions above his best weight?
Best available fight: Israel Vazquez vs. Celestino Caballero – Both are in their prime, and more importantly they have defeated high caliber opposition in 2006. This gives both confidence, and ensures the highest potential monies for both parties. 2003 was the last time either was decisively defeated, and each has shown the ability to go the distance or kayo opponents early. Questions abound with Vazquez having more experience, but Caballero showing a slightly better chin. They key could be whether Caballero can use his height advantage, five inches, or if Vazquez can bob past the persistent jab to inflict damage and score points. A 60-40 proposition fight, with Vazquez the slight favorite based on his better level of opposition.
Featherweight: This was once HBO’s darling division, but it has been almost entirely depleted of big name boxers by moves up in weight. Gone are Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, and Manny Pacquiao, leaving only Juan Manuel Marquez and Rocky Juarez as fighters who have made consistent TV appearances. Scott Harrison is equally talented, but there is no way his body can continue to make weight past 2007. So Harrison will leave the division without ever getting that career defining bout. The defections upward have left openings in the top ten, but outside of Chris John and In-jin Chi, everyone lacks world class experience and finishing skills. This leaves Juan Manuel Marquez in search of an opponent, which has seemed to be case for his entire career. In-jin Chi is an intriguing fighter who showed me a lot by traveling to England to lift the title. He seems worthy of an HBO Boxing after Dark appearance against a Jorge Solis type, which might elevate the winner into a unification fight with Marquez on Showtime?
My top ten: Chris John 38-0-1 Juan Manuel Marquez 46-3-1 In-jin Chi 30-3-1 Takashi Koshimoto 39-2-2 Rodolfo Lopez 19-2-1 Thomas Mashaba 18-2-4 Spent Abazi 32-1 Nicky Cook 26-0 Hiroyuki Enoki 25-0-1 Martin Honorio 23-3-1
Champ who will stay: Chris John – He fights twice a year in Indonesia, and faces unreliable Venezuelan Jose Rojas in one of those bouts. Rojas, who has not had a good win since 2003, is also the mandatory challenger. So what are the odds that John’s management seeks out a tougher voluntary defense for him then his mandatory? About the same as his retaining his title…100%.
Champ who will go: Juan Manuel Marquez – I do not pick Marquez to lose any fights in 2007, but by the end of the year he will be a jr. lightweight in search of bigger paydays.
Will rise in 2007: Thomas Mashaba – In his last three bouts has defeated workmanlike Juan Cabrera, and former champions Vuyani Bungu and Yober Ortega. He defeated this solid list of seasoned veterans, via decision, showing volume punching over hand speed, which is the normal way to defeat former champions. From highlights I have seen, Mashaba could be the most fit fighter in the division, and throws punches accordingly, only falling short of Manuel Medina for recent comparison. Needs to improve on the defensive side, but if his chin is as solid as I think, he can mix at the championship level with no problems.
Needs to leave in 2007: Cuauhtemoc Gomez – This pains me, as Cuauhtemoc is one of my favorite non champion boxers of the last ten years. Always fun to watch, and certainly not without skills at his best. Had one chance at a title, when he lost a majority decision to Yasuei Yakushiji in Japan. Otherwise, has contested for Latino, Fecar, NABF, and Mexican national titles with various levels of success. Gomez has only won one fight since 2000, while dropping twelve. What makes the losses bad is that he is going a lot of rounds (at least five in every loss), without winning many to young guns with some power. The punishment is mounting (all kayos have been past five rounds) on the 36 year old, who had his best days at bantamweight.
Best available fight: Chris John vs. Juan Manuel Marquez II – Judging from my mailbox, I am in the minority of people who thought John defeated Marquez in their initial meeting. It was a pretty tactical fight for the majority of the rounds, and John landed the best punch of the fight in the fifth round. I also thought the low blow deduction, after the warning in the eighth round, against Marquez was legit and Marquez was not throwing enough punches from the sixth round on. It looked like Marquez was really turning it on in the last two rounds, but John equaled him as both landed big punches in the final round. There are no other fights, because of the limited exposure of others in the top ten, that fans demand in this division. Too bad Scott Harrison could no longer make weight, as that would have been an exceptional fight for which I would have paid.
Jr. Lightweight: Last year, the featherweights landed in the jr. lightweight division with a resounding air of pomposity, clearing out the division of its former title holders. Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, and Manny Pacquiao were the most unlikely of pack animals, having fought each other while simultaneously moving against the rest of division. The other three champions are Edwin Valero, Joan Guzman, and Malcolm Klassen, and have the cache of experience and drawing of the aforementioned trio, even though only Barrera holds a title. The recent infusion of punching power that Valero and Guzman brought make this a extremely enticing division for TV! Especially if it is paired against an aging Barrera or defensively suspect Pacquiao. Boxing’s version of must see TV.
My top ten: Manny Pacquiao 40-3-2 Marco Antonio Barrera 61-4 Joan Guzman 36-0 Jorge Barrios 45-2-1 Erik Morales 48-5 Edwin Valero 20-0 Rocky Juarez 26-3 Yodsanan Nanthachai 50-3-1 Vincente Mosquera 24-2-1 Alex Arthur 24-1
Champ who will stay: Joan Guzman – Too bad Manny Pacquiao does not hold a title belt (although he is clearly the people’s champion and rated as the best by The Ring magazine), or else he would clearly be my number one choice. There are rumors that Edwin Valero could face Pacquiao, so that makes me weary of picking him. That leaves me with Joan Guzman or Marco Antonio Barrera. I choose Guzman because of his easy title defense win over Antonio Davis, and Barrera’s penchant for fighting the best available contenders. There is also a good chance that Barrera faces Pacquiao late in 2007. Another good reason to go with Guzman. Just playing the odds here.
Champ who will go: Malcom Klassen – I really hate to judge a fighter I have never seen, but a look at his record reveals Klassen has not defeated anyone above low end contender status. Which is an indictment of the IBF, whose previous champion was Gary St. Clair. He is a good little fighter, but someone who does not merit top ten consideration in educated or unbiased ratings. Unless Klassen freezes the title, which I hope he does to hurt the IBF in a potentially high money division, Klassen loses to anyone in my top ten.
Will rise in 2007: Alex Arthur – In his lone loss, Arthur was caught on the boiling side of hot and cold fighting Michael Gomez. It might have been a case of overconfidence, as Arthur had just dispatched national rival Willie Limond via eighth round TKO. That was a hotly anticipated bout, so Arthur has shown he can come through in pressure situations. Sparkled in 2006 by handing three undefeated fighters their first loss, and ended 2005 with an impressively lopsided decision over the more experienced Boris Sinitsin. At 28 is in his physical prime, and recent wins show him to be nearly as mature mentally. Arthur’s blend of speed, stamina, and willingness to take risks is fun to watch, and his European roots make him unique for the division.
Needs to leave in 2007: Fred Neal – Outside of two draws, all of Neal’s fights have ended in a stoppage. Neal has lost five of his last seven fights by kayo, and like many boxers I choose, he is getting up there in age. At 34 his body is still in shape, and even his chin is not totally bankrupt, as it took nine rounds in his last two fights before the referee rescued him. Another problem is that Neal has a habit of fighting good prospects, and has not had a soft touch since 2003. That win came after a three year layoff, which is something I would suggest again at this time.
Best available fight: Manny Pacquiao vs. Marco Antonio Barrera – Come on, this is an obvious one! I do not even have to explain as to why I chose it. Ask yourself if there is another fight, in all of boxing, that makes more sense fiscally or from a fan’s viewpoint?
Lightweight: 2006 was all about Jose Luis Castillo and Diego Corrales vs. The Scales. While the scales won, a young gun named Juan Diaz got a lot of good guy hype (deserved I might add) from ESPN, HBO, and Showtime which should bolster his fan pleasing style even more. The uncertainty in this division is what happens now that Castillo and Corrales have taken their name recognition to another division? The shock retirement of Acelino Freitas also leaves a market space gap that fighters like Julio Diaz, Zahir Raheem, David Diaz, Nate Campbell, and Jesus Chavez are not likely to fill. That pack of fighters will have a tough road, either fighting among each other, or battling back the charges of other desperate boxers (who are in the late stages of their careers) like Lakva Sim, Aldo Rios, Jorge Barrios, and Francisco Lorenzo. As for Casamayor, find a fan of his outside of Miami and I will find you a TV outlet. My advice? If your body can handle it, move up in weight.
My top ten: Juan Diaz 31-0 Joel Casamayor 34-3-1 Jesus Chavez 42-3 Julio Diaz 33-3 Zahir Raheem 27-2 David Diaz 32-1-1 Nate Campbell 29-5-1 Kid Diamond 23-1-1 Graham Earl 25-1 Jonathan Thaxton 31-7
Champ who will stay: Juan Diaz – Is the youngest (23), most aggressive, has the weakest list of contenders, and is promoted by Don King. Any questions?
Champ who will go: Joel Casamayor – Is a 35 year old lightweight who has a tendency of ending up on the wrong side of close decisions (last fight against Corrales the exception). Coming to the end of his career, Joel is looking for high profit bouts, which will surely merit tough opposition to justify TV dates that furnish the monetary windfall. I think lightweight is the one division in which all champs will retain their titles, but if I had to pick one, circumstances dictate it be Casamayor.
Will rise in 2007: Anthony Peterson – Hard hitting brother Lamont gets most of the attention in the family, but Anthony’s better all-around boxing will enable him to hold on to a title much longer then his brother. Don’t look for future opponent Juan Garza, who has a deceivingly good looking 28-2 record, to be the first to give Peterson any trouble either. In fact, none of his 21 opponents have been able to push the gifted former Golden Gloves champion from Washington D.C. England’s Amir Khan gets all the young gun attention, but I could guarantee you that his management would not even allow him to spar Peterson. And I consider myself a Khan fan.
Needs to leave in 2007: John Brown – At what point of a boxing career does having a hard head count against you? I would argue when you are 38, and have not won a fight in nearly five years. Granted, Brown’s had two draws, but those draws only lead to step up fights which Brown inevitably lost to a solid contender. Take a look at some of the great trainers who used to be boxers, and they usually sport records like Brown’s. I believe Brown has the communication skills to pass on what he has learned as a trainer, and no longer needs to get in the ring to pass on his knowledge to prospects who end up beating it out of him.
Best available fight: Juan Diaz vs. Joel Casamayor – Even though Juan Diaz is a fun fighter to watch, he is not always exciting since he wears opponents down instead of starching them. I chose this fight because of the crossroads, good guy vs. bad guy, and stylistic clash features that the press would play up. Otherwise, you could put Jesus Chavez in Casamayor’s place, as their styles mesh much better in terms of excitement. This is one of the few cases where storylines, and marketability, would create a better pre-fight buzz than a fight that would be much better in terms of fan appeal.
Jr. Welterweight: I am still annoyed that Floyd Mayweather, Ricky Hatton, and Miguel Cotto inhabited this weight class at the same time without any of them fighting each other! Replacement blood in Jose Luis Castillo, Diego Corrales, and Demetrius Hopkins holds intrigue, but little of the star status that has departed. On a whole, this division has turned pedestrian, and only Hatton’s appeal and Corrales’ heart are keeping it on TV beyond the ESPN level. Overall, a weak division whose top prospects lack flair as well, and once Hatton and Castillo meet, it will be hard to make quality TV matches. Only one thing is certain at jr. welterweight, the forgotten man will remain Junior Witter.
My top ten: Ricky Hatton 41-0 Jose Luis Castillo 54-7-1 Junior Witter 34-1-2 Lovemore Ndou 43-8-1 Vivian Harris 27-2-1 Diego Corrales 40-4 Souleymane M’baye 35-1 Demetrius Hopkins 25-0-1 Kendall Holt 21-1 Naoufel Ben Rabah 24-2
Champ who will stay: Junior Witter – Hatton is not yet champion so I can not, technically, choose him. No one wants to fight Witter, which is why the number one rated Jose Luis Castillo will fight Hatton instead of Witter next. The rest of the WBC’s contenders, outside of Herman Ngoudjo, are beatable and play into the herky jerky style of Witter. Unless Witter can finally goad Hatton into a fight, I do not see him challenged until early 2008.
Champ who will go: Juan Urango – Should not have held the title in the first place, as he was clearly outpointed by Naoufel Ben Rabah but got a home promoter’s decision. Now he faces Hatton, who brings the kind of HBO clout that Urango’s promoter can not match. With Ricardo Torres and Souleymane M’Baye the other champs, it was actually harder to narrow down who will go instead of who will stay.
Will rise in 2007: Herman Ngoudjo – Added the scalp of John Brown to those of Emmanuel Augustus and former champion Eloy Rojas in 2005. Ngoudjo has the right mix of speed, power, and ring presence to hang in there against world level opposition. The question is, how will he do against a fighter that pressures him consistently going into the late rounds? Cameroon-born Ngoudjo looks to be the type of boxer that gets better as the rounds wear on opponents, and he will need it in his next fight. I wish he would get at least three or four more fights under his belt before going after Jose Luis Castillo, but I assume his management believes he is ready for the January bout. The risk is being taken to get a shot at Junior Witter’s title next, and if Ngoudjo wins that bout as well, a serious case should be made for him as a Showtime or HBO regular.
Needs to leave in 2007: Hicklet Lau – Anyone who has seen Lau served up as an opponent knows why I am choosing him. He is now 30, but has taken enough punishment to make his brain age to that of a 92 year old. Lau is too brave for his own good, and damn exciting because he fires back with abandon when hit. He does not have stopping power, so opponents gladly take the one Lau gives for the ten he takes. In his last three fights Lau has been put in against undefeated contenders as well. I would not change my mind on this pick if Lau were to reel off ten wins in a row, and beat Hatton and Castillo on the same night. The kid has taken too much already, even if it was below most fans’ radar screens.
Best available fight: Ricky Hatton vs. Jose Luis Castillo – The fight is all but made, with Hatton and Castillo facing beatable opponents to pave the way for an early summer clash. Castillo was a big lightweight, but I have my doubts about him at jr. welterweight, where opponents can physically handle his constant pressure better. To make matters worse, Hatton is a big jr. welterweight, and has shown the kind of late round resilience which Castillo usually relies on for victory. Want another reason to watch? This is a body punching fan’s dream.
Welterweight: The best fighter in the division, Floyd Mayweather, will fight next at jr. middleweight and might just stay there for another money bout, leaving him out of my top ten. Cotto just made a sensational debut, and with any luck will square off with Antonio Margarito, who looked deceptively beatable against Joshua Clottey. This is one of the few divisions where the top half will square off against one another, with Margarito, Cotto, Williams, and Urkal likely to settle their differences before the start of summer. The forgotten man is Zab Judah, who is not in any of the sanctioning bodies’ top ten and damaged his appeal with the TV networks even further after the Mayweather fiasco.
My top ten: Antonio Margarito 32-4 Miguel Cotto 28-0 Carlos Baldomir 42-10-6 Zab Judah 34-4 Luis Collazo 27-2 Paul Williams 32-0 Oktay Urkal 36-3 Kermit Cintron 25-1 Joshua Clottey 29-2 Hector Saldiva 20-0
Champ who will stay: Antonio Margarito – I still like Margarito against Cotto, and believe the combination of a tough contender and lack of rounds did a lot to slow Margarito down against Clottey. It is a double edged sword which Margarito wields. While he is undoubtedly a superb boxer puncher, he is also too dangerous for his own good. His name is well respected in boxing circles, but does not yet hold the kind of attraction at the gate to make him a PPV type opponent. It finally looks like a champ will face Margarito willingly, and Cotto deserves credit for this. When discussing Margarito, the term “risk vs. reward” usually enters around the second sentence. Before Margarito even gets a chance at Cotto he will likely have to defeat red hot contender Paul Williams (while Cotto gets a relatively easier fight against Oktay Urkal), but such is my faith in Margarito that I see him coming through it via decision.
Champ who will go: Miguel Cotto – Didn’t I just pick Margarito to defeat this champ? Enough said.
Will rise in 2007: Andre Berto – Just had an eye opening win over Miguel Figueroa on HBO, and should be continually featured on the network in 2007. Is amazingly accurate for a guy who keeps his legs spread and looks for power punches, and looks like he can switch to a higher punch output with lower power strategy if needed. I thought Figueroa did get Berto’s attention with some counter punches, but nothing that leads me to believe he has a suspect chin. At the highest level he might get exposed by a speedster with good feet, but only if his accuracy is not what wins over Figueroa and James Crayton suggest. I also like the fact that, unlike other young fighters, his weight has been coming down from bout to bout, suggesting a good work ethic.
Needs to leave in 2007: Vince Phillips – Some boxers are great opponents, almost bred to lose via decision while dolling out nothing more than learning experiences to their young opponents. Phillips is not such a case, as he proved when he hung the first loss on Kostya Tszyu’s ring resume. Phillips is now 43 and lost his last two fights to 13-3-2 and 13-5-2 boxers…on undercards no less. After a revival of sorts in 2005, where he won two fights against good fighters, Phillips has crashed back to earth. Let’s hope a tour of Australia is not planned, and that Phillips will be allowed to stay in retirement.
Best available fight: Antonio Margarito vs. Miguel Cotto – I actually believe that the Paul Williams fight could be tougher for Margarito (if Williams does not take a step aside fee) to overcome because of his reach and sturdy chin. While Bob Arum was chastised by Jim Gray for saying it, the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico angle is enticing because of their history of bad blood and great fights. In a pretty evenly matched fight like this, I have to go with the guy who has shown a better chin, and frankly better finishing skills in my opinion. Even if it does not end suddenly, I thought Margarito showed good patience against Clottey in his last fight. Not a gimme for sure, but the slight edges go to Margarito. And we all know big fights can turn on small edges.
Next week, the final six weight divisions, with traditional powerhouse divisions from middleweight to heavyweight, where old names are holding on while TV tries to develop young stars.
