Jorge Arce has more wear and tear on him than my 1988 Camry — and it?s got 310,000 miles? worth.
They were both pretty beat up already as of fall 2008, when the SF Boxing Examiner debuted and made inroads by visiting Manny Pacquiao in Los Angeles and encountering Nonito Donaire in San Jose.
Back in 2008, Donaire?s ideal scenario would have started with a flyweight farewell triumph over Arce in 2009 and would have continued with a bantamweight smashing of Fernando Montiel in 2010. But Donaire languished a bit as the aura of his 2007 knockout of Vic Darchinyan began to fade and his new alliance with Top Rank wasn?t getting him challenging opponents .
The Montiel match didn?t take place until 2011, but it did cement Donaire?s superstardom.
The Arce match is only just now set to take place — Saturday in Houston on HBO?s World Championship Boxing, at 122 pounds instead of 112. It won?t necessarily be anticlimactic. Although the conventional wisdom that Donaire (30-1, 19 knockouts) will win by early knockout is what?s actually likely to happen, the bout is expected to be entertaining while it lasts.
That?s Arce?s style. Instead of aging gracefully during the intervening four years, Arce (33) has been even busier than Donaire (30). Arce is 11-2-1 during that period, starting with the bust-up Darchinyan administered to him in early 2009 and continuing with his two-fight series with South African Simphiwe Nongqayi, who thrashed Arce in their first meeting, although Arce stopped him in four in a 2011 rematch. Arce (61-6-2, 46 knockouts) was busted up as well in his most notable victory in those four years, stopping Wilfredo Vasquez Jr. in the 12th round while trailing much of the bout on the scorecards.
Despite Arce?s decrepitude, it?s Donaire?s third-most attractive fight ever, after Montiel and Darchinyan. Arce has strong box-office appeal and might attract Mexican fans to Donaire. Arce is appealing, period. Comes to fight. Fun to watch.
In the intervening four years the Bay Area-based Donaire is 10-0 with six knockouts) against the likes of Montiel, Volodymyr Sydorenko, Vasquez Jr., Hernan ?Tyson? Marquez, Raul Martinez and Toshiaki Nishioka.
He has knocked down seven of his past eight opponents. He?s been ranked in The Ring?s top 10 pound-for-pound since May 2009. He?s longer and quicker than Arce and is far more a master of the fine points of boxing, which is why he?s virtually unscathed physically, except for his chronically tender left hand.
Donaire figures to carve Arce up. Arce has to attack. Donaire will land the fabled counter left hook. Over and out.
So why bother?
Aside from his colorful El Guapo persona with its vaquero accents, Arce has a puncher?s chance. He might be able to endure steady punishment from Donaire without bleeding too profusely. Perhaps Donaire will injure his left hand, as usual, without finishing off Arce, and then what? Donaire can outbox Arce, but this is a scenario that leaves Donaire vulnerable to a Sunday punch in a late round.
That would be compounded, of course, by the shocking conclusion of Pacquiao-Marquez IV last weekend. (The replay of that bout will air before the Houston fights.) The Pinoy Pride factor weighs heavily on Donaire-Arce, although Donaire says that?s less motivating than the prospect of looking like the true Filipino Flash against such a high-profile opponent.
That?s how it was in 2008, and that?s still how it is. Arce?s chassis may be deteriorating, but he is not yet ready for the scrap heap, and if he can prove it, that probably will benefit Donaire. They can both look good.
