On Friday, Timothy Bradley’s odds of pulling off a major upset over Manny Pacquiao stood at nearly 5-1. However, in the hours leading up to the fight, an influx of bets poured in to Las Vegas to wager that Bradley, a 28-year-old native of California, would turn the boxing world upside down and win the WBO welterweight title. [ See official scorecard ]
In a span of just a few hours, the fight’s odds shifted to below 4-1 in favor of Pacquiao due to last-minute betting. In a statement made to Fox Sports on Sunday, R.J. Bell of betting site PreGame.com acknowledged that there was (significant) line movement and late action on Bradley, [who] closed -397.” As a result of Saturday night’s head-scratching split decision, bookmakers around the world lost millions of dollars. Bettors for the underdog Bradley saw a 400 percent return on their capital over a 12 round, 45-minute period.
Bookmaker’s Losses
BetOnline.ag suffered the biggest financial loss on a fight in the company’s 21-year history. To protect its reputation, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power lost a considerable (undisclosed) sum by refunding customers who had placed bets for the favored Pacquiao.
Why? More people wagered that Manny Pacquiao would secure the 55th win of his career, and less people wagered that Tim Bradley would score the shocking upset. The oddsmaker’s goal is to set the line in order to keep an equal number of bets on each side of the game (or fight). Their business model is dependent on earning commissions from all sides of the action, not risk their capital on a game’s outcome.
That did not happen for Pacquiao-Bradley.
Article: Mob fixed Danny Green fight?
In the week leading up to the June 9 fight, most people – including loyal Filipino fans – flocked to wager for Pacquiao and that resulted in a significant, systemic risk for the bookmakers. This wagering imbalance is known as being “sided” – which is a worst case scenario for establishments that collect bets on behalf of the public.
When a bookie is “sided”, it loses a lot of money when one fighter (in this case, Tim Bradley) wins. Like an economic mirror effect, the last-minute bettors for Bradley won stacks of cash on Saturday.
2010 Australian Investigation
The public’s perception, weather, medical injuries, suspended players, etc., are factors that all affect the point spread. On June 9, late betting moved the point spread to a considerable degree. If this occurred in another jurisdiction, say Australia, an investigation would have followed if there was suspicion of foul play.
In 2010, Australian boxer Danny Green (30-3) scored a first round knockout of fellow countryman Paul Briggs (26-4) in Perth Australia. Geoffrey Miller, a retired Supreme Court judge in Australia, began an investigation on whether the fight was fixed.
In that bout, members of a Lebanese mob, “the Sword Boys,” placed a large, last-minute bet on the IBO cruiserweight title bout. The street gang bought hundreds of betting tickets worth at least $100,000 at a northern Australian suburb just hours before the fight, according to The West Autralian. Security camera captured the bets, with most of the wagers placing $100 each on Danny Green to win in the first round. Green did win in the first round – with a punch that barely grazed the head of Briggs.
Something smelled then. Suspicions have arisen now.
It’s possible that the ringside judges for Pacquiao-Bradley made an honest mistake. Perhaps they are all honorable and truly believe that the Californian won most rounds despite CompuBox punch stats showing otherwise. Let the boxing judges clear their names by way of an official forum, which would also restore the sport’s credibility.
If you’re a Mexican cartel boss and you wanted drugs shipped into the United States, the going rate to pay off a corrupt American border patrol agent is about $60,000 to $70,000 per day to let your inventory pass without inspection.
For Pacquiao-Bradley, the scoring silence is deafening.
