Few things in boxing, never mind life, are straight-forward. This Saturday night isn?t one of those times. It?s real simple ? if Manny Pacquiao does not recapture the imperious form of 2009, he loses his championship and Timothy Bradley will remain unbeaten. No ifs, ands or buts. Yes, it?s that simple. The question is?. can he? There is a growing school of thought that the Filipino warrior has already peaked. It?s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.
Manny is 33-years-old now and has been boxing since the age of 16. Plus, he?s been involved in several gruelling fights and has the kind of high-tempo style that uses up a lot of mileage. It?s possible that, on the back a 17-year professional boxing career that saw him move up through several weight classes, Pacquiao?s body has simply hit a wall.
It?s a theory that cannot be ruled out. However, I suspect more likely explanations for the Pac-Man?s recent subdued performances are down to a couple of other factors. Firstly, I think his political career has taken up a lot of his time, both physically and mentally. Vitali Klitschko has stated on more than one occasion that politics takes up more 90% of his time and that boxing is nothing more than a part-time hobby for him these days.
That?s all well and good when you?re a great fighter stuck in a division that is devoid of meaningful challenges. Unfortunately for Pacquiao, he does not have that luxury. If Pacquiao has lost his hunger for the sport, then Tim Bradley is the last opponent he wants to face. This guy isn?t just hungry ? he?s starving. Junior Witter, who dropped his WBC title to the American in 2008, said recently that although he never got close to Bradley on personal level, he could sense that Tim is a determined and strong-willed character. This isn?t a ?Joshua Clottey? type, who is just there to make up the numbers. Bradley is coming to win.
Hunger, which I mentioned above, is another key factor in Pacquiao?s recent lacklustre showings, in my view. Now I wouldn?t go as far as to say that Manny has completely lost his love for the sport. I think that would be a gross exaggeration. However, I do feel that the remorseless machine that snarled to the cameras while Ricky Hatton lay motionless on the canvas is a thing of the past. This was exemplified in the Antonio Margarito and Shane Mosley bouts, where Pacquiao showed mercy and compassion.
The Mosley fight in particular was bizarre. I?m not one for punch stats, but I?m sure there is a number out there which can prove Pacquiao hit Mosley?s glove more than he did his chin. It seemed as though Manny was content with being passive and overly respectful towards his faded foe. As a result, the ?fight? (or should I say ?sparring match?) turned into a twelve round non-event. The Pacquiao who twice rolled over another faded legend in Erik Morales would never have paid such reverence to Mosley.
Most recently, Pacquiao found himself in a nip-and-tuck affair with his great rival Juan Manuel Marquez, a fight in which many feel the Mexican legend was robbed of victory. Although one can certainly add this bout to the recent collection of disappointing performances from Pacquiao, I have always felt that Marquez simply has a style that the Filipino cannot quite master. In other words, I believe any version of Pacquiao would struggle with Marquez. It?s just one of those things. However, that fight definitely did not do anything to quench the fears of Manny?s legions of supporters.
It?s ironic that Pacquiao?s recent entrance music has been Survivor?s ?Eye of the Tiger,? as that?s one thing Manny certainly doesn?t look to have anymore. And while he doesn?t have Clubber Lang?s punching power, Timothy Bradley is everything else Mr. T?s character was; young, hungry and waiting for his opportunity for what must feel like forever.
As soon as this match was signed, I went on record and said this would be one of Manny?s toughest nights since becoming a mainstream icon. Most did not agree, but the closer this fight is getting, I notice that more than a few people are starting to raise their eyebrows and rub their chins. The realisation has kicked in that this may not be as easy an assignment for Pacquiao as they first envisioned.
My opinion on this fight remains the same as it?s always been. I think this is really a tough night?s work for Pacquiao. Physically, I expect this to be a tougher fight for him than the Marquez match. Allow me to explain that one. While Marquez largely outboxed him and controlled the pace of their bout for long spells, I do not think the fight took too much out of Pacquiao physically. He finished the stronger of the two, appeared fresh at the end and didn?t look too marked up.
With Bradley?s rough and tumble style (which includes some, ahem, rather dubious head work), Manny will more than likely be spitting blood at the end of their bout. Whichever way it goes, Pacquiao will know he was in a fierce battle. And while Bradley is a strong, rugged, bull-like combatant, be under no illusions that this guy is just some crude, one-dimensional pressure fighter. He has shown some fine boxing ability, most notably against Luis Abregu, who Bradley outpointed over twelve rounds. He?s versatile, astute and fast. That?s another attribute that has been overlooked with Bradley ? his speed. I think even Pacquiao will be shocked at how quick the American is.
Photo by Chris Farina / Top Rank
So as I?ve made the case for Bradley, do I think he can actually pull off the upset? The reasons are there for tipping Bradley and I certainly wouldn?t be shocked if he pulled it off. I would compare it with Evander Holyfield?s victory over Mike Tyson back ?96; a big upset, but one that was foreseeable. However, Pacquiao is a proven great and great fighters, more often than not, find a way to win, especially when they?re up against it, which Manny most certainly is on Saturday night.
He knows the score. If he doesn?t produce the goods against a fighter of Bradley?s calibre, he will lose. Manny realises this and so does Freddie Roach. I do expect one or two moments of crises for Pacquiao, but I get the feeling we will see enough of the old ?Pac-Man? on Saturday which will see him prevail. I think Pacquiao?s power and combination punching will keep Bradley in check for the most part and his footwork will make it hard for the American to land enough clean punches to impress the judges.
Pacquiao on points, but with absolutely no degree of certainty. It?s a fascinating fight and one I don?t think you should miss.
