On Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (54-3-2, 38 KOs) defends his title against undefeated and current WBO junior welterweight champion Timothy Bradley (28-0, 12 KOs). Pacquiao is rated #1 or #2 pound-for-pound in the world depending on whom you ask, while Bradley sits comfortably inside most boxing analyst?s top 10. Considering Bradley?s untarnished record and current standing in the sport, one would think he?d be given a better shot than the most online polls and sportsbooks suggest. As of today, Bradley is currently a 4-1 betting underdog at most sportsbooks.
Is Bradley really a long shot to give Pacquiao a run for his money or does he stand a real chance of pulling off the upset? Perhaps a closer look at this matchup will give us the answer.
Profiling the Combatants
Over the last ten years, Pacquiao has been a force to be reckoned with. He is the first eight-division world champion and the first boxer to win the lineal championship in four different weight classes. His storied run began in 2001 when he upset Lehlohonolo Ledwaba as a last minute replacement to win the IBF super bantamweight title. Since then he?s racked up quality victories over Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), Juan Manuel Marquez (twice), Erik Morales (twice), Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Antonio Margarito, and Shane Mosley, spanning multiple weight classes.
In his last four bouts, he was taken the full 12-round route, which has convinced many that at age 33, he is now past his peak. The truth lies somewhere in between as Pacquiao?s most recent opponents are opponents known for their durability. Joshua Clottey, Shane Mosley, and Juan Manuel Marquez, have never been knocked out, while Antonio Margarito has only been stopped once in 47 total bouts. Those things considered, while Pacquiao may not be the same whirlwind he was even five years ago, he is still undoubtedly one of the best boxers in the world.
Timothy Bradley is a 28-year-old undefeated junior welterweight champion with quality victories over Miguel Vasquez, Junior Witter, Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Lamont Peterson, and Devon Alexander. With the exception of Amir Khan, he has defeated the best the junior welterweight class has had to offer in recent years. Come fight night, he will move up in weight to get his first crack at a welterweight title against one of the best, if not the best, fighter of the last decade.
Saturday night will also mark the biggest fight of Bradley?s career. Strutting uber confidence, he will be out to prove that he belongs amongst boxing?s elites. He will aim to take his career to next level by upsetting the great Pacquiao. And regardless of what the betting lines suggest, Bradley?s ring history and overall pedigree suggest he is at least a ?live? dog.
Big Fight Break Down
Boxing Skills ? Bradley at 5?6? is a half inch shorter than Pacquiao, but he holds a two inch reach advantage (69? to Pacquiao?s 67?). With limited power in both hands, he tends to outsmart and outgut his opponents. Pacquiao, on the other hand, often overwhelms his opponents with speed and power. Neither is a pretty boxer by any stretch of the imagination and it?s highly likely that Pacquiao?s southpaw stance coupled with Bradley?s hit and hold style will cause both issues early on. The clash of styles here makes it rather difficult to determine who will have the edge. The slight edge goes to Bradley, however, as he has displayed more versatility/adaptability in recent years.
Edge ? Bradley
Power ? In 28 fights Bradley has only scored 12 stoppages. Power is definitely not one of his strengths although in several bouts he has shown that he does at least have some decent pop to go along with the craftiness. Pacquiao as we know is known for his speed and power. Therefore, it goes without saying he holds a clear edge in this category.
Edge ? Pacquiao
Defense ? Both fighters have shown they can be hit when they overextend themselves on offense. In a counter-punching duel, the man with the better reflexes and footwork will likely hold the edge. This one is too close to call.
Edge – Even
Speed ? Both fighters possess above average hand and foot speed. Bradley appears to have a slight edge in reflexes. Nevertheless, this one is also too close to call.
Edge ? Even
Chin ? Pacquiao has shown great durability to the head and body since his flyweight days. He has not suffered a knockdown since 2003 when he fought Serikzhan Yeshmagambetov in a non-title featherweight bout. Despite facing bigger fighters like De La Hoya, Cotto, and Margarito in recent years, he has not been seriously hurt. Conversely, Bradley has been buzzed several times in his career, particularly in the opening round of his bout with Kendall Holt in 2009. He has proven he has a big heart, but based on their ring history, his chin doesn?t stack up to Pacquiao?s.
Edge ? Pacquiao
Stamina ? Both athletes are well-conditioned and have proven time and time again they can go the full twelve rounds on any given night. Judging from recent ?HBO ? 24/7? episodes, both fighters will again enter the ring in tip-top shape.
Edge – Even
Heart ? Both fighters have had to walk through some type of fire in recent years. There is no doubting either fighter?s intestinal fortitude as both of their hearts run at a high gear. Once again there is no decisive edge either way.
Edge ? Even
Experience ? Pacquiao has twice as many fights as Bradley. He even has more career knockouts than Bradley has fights. In addition, Pacquiao has faced the better opponents throughout his career. That said, Bradley is no slouch in the experience department considering he was a decent amateur.
Edge ? Pacquiao
Prediction
Bradley will likely come out tentative as he feels out Pacquiao?s speed and power in the early going. After dropping the first few rounds he will begin to feel comfortable enough to begin letting his hands go. It is around this time that he will begin to find success with a hit-grab-smother strategy. Pacquiao will be a bit confounded as he works on figuring out the puzzle that is ?Desert Storm.? In the midst of his success, Bradley will likely get overconfident thus leading to him suffering a flash knockdown. He will then have to use his craftiness to bail himself out of trouble, but Pacquiao will be as dangerous as ever as he looks for the fight ending punch.
Bradley will regroup and continue to build on his early success. However, Pacquiao will be making a charge of his own. After several rounds of competitive action, the two will suffer a clash of heads that will result with Pacquiao getting the worst of it. The ringside doctor will examine the cut but allow the bout to continue. The momentum will now shift Bradley?s way as he continues to confound a bloodied and distracted Pacquiao with the same hit-grab-smother strategy. Finally, in between rounds, the ringside doctor will examine Pacquiao?s cut again and deem it too dangerous for him to continue. The fight will go to the cards and ringsiders and fight fanatics at home alike will be split as to who deserves the nod. The bout will end in a draw or controversial decision in favor of Pacquiao. Envision shades of Chavez-Randall 2.
Undercard Predictions
Mike Jones halts Randall Bailey in 8 rounds. Bailey still has a big punch, but Jones will prove to be too young, fast, and technically sound for the 37-year-old Bailey.
Jorge Arce will be involved in yet another exciting fight. After some early trouble, he will rise to the occasion once again and score a late round TKO.
Guillermo Rigondeaux will prove to be too skilled for a game Teon Kennedy. Look for Rigondeaux to score a late stoppage or win a wide unanimous decision.
