WHAT?S YOUR PREDICTION?
Hey Dougie, Who do you predict? Manny “God’s Fist” Pacquiao or Timothy “Uatu’s Head” Bradley?
Bradley is a durable iron-spirited warrior who has never tasted defeat, and I believe he has the ability to defeat Pacquiao. If Pacquiao can utilize an experienced jab and stay away from the ropes to avoid Bradley’s bum-rush offense, he may be able to time him ala Hatton because from what I saw from his previous fights Bradley swings a bit wide.
We shall see. I haven’t been this excited for a Pacquiao fight since the 2nd fight with Morales. Take care and keep up the great work always! ? Lester
Thanks Lester. Nice one with the ?Uatu?s Head? nickname. Only comic book nerds will get the reference (although I?ve mentioned The Watcher more than a few times in these bags ?o mine), but those who do will probably chuckle at the image. (If there?s an African American among Uatu?s ancient star-watching race, I bet he looks just like Timmy.)
It?s taken me awhile but I?ve finally become interested in this big fight. Although I believe Bradley is arguably the most worthy opponent for Pacquiao not named Floyd Mayweather, I wasn?t excited about the style matchup. But the closer we get to fight night, the more I think Bradley is going to take it to Pacquiao.
In fact, I?m pretty sure the undefeated Palm Springs native is going to box and fight aggressively, which is why I?m predicting a late-rounds stoppage victory for Pacquiao. As you noted, Bradley gets a little wild when he attacks his opponents. In fact, he often swarms them to such a degree that he smothers his own punches.
Who knows? Maybe that approach will stifle and eventually break Pacquiao down. My guess, however, is that Pacquiao will clip and drop or seriously rock a charging Bradley by the middle rounds of the bout. I think Bradley?s dogged determination and superb conditioning will enable him to survive the wobbly moment and keep him in the fight for a few more rounds (hopefully making for some fantastic drama), but Pacquiao will get to him again and again until somebody stops the fight.
UPSET IN THE MAKING
Doug,
I think this weekend has upset written all over it. But first, one quick question: Do you think Bradley is being dumped on by the ‘experts’ because he is new and they’re so accustomed to seeing Manny win? Every single one of them say Bradley is a legit challenger and will bring the heat, but in the end they all have Manny winning. Are they choosing the devil they know? Or is it the lack of power Bradley has that’s leading them to go with Pacquiao? You’re considered one of the experts, explain their thinking to me?
Shane Mosley is one of the few openly picking Bradley to win and he said this fight reminds him of his first fight with Oscar De La Hoya. Actually, there are a lot of parallels when I think about it. Oscar was coming off of a poor performance and chose a guy from lighter weights to try and rebound. Mosley was an accomplished champ in that lower weight class and needed a fight against a name to get to that next level. Manny didn’t lose his last fight but he didn’t look awesome and his promoter chose a smaller, younger fighter to try and rebound from. Come to think of it, wasn’t Arum involved in Oscar-Mosley 1, too? What were Mosley’s chances going into the Oscar fight initially? I’d have to think similar to Pac-Bradley.
Anyway, I’m on record thinking Bradley is the guy to beat Manny Pacquiao. I think timing has everything to do with it. I do believe Pacquiao is on the downslope (how steep the curve is still to be determined) and Bradley is on the up. I just think at this time in both guy’s careers, its great timing for Bradley. Prior to his last fight I think you could argue his level of opposition was just as compelling and hardcore as Froch at 168 (meaning fighting a string of excellent challenges). Meanwhile, a knock on Pacquiao is he hasn’t really had to work that hard since moving up from 130. Lastly, I think Bradley’s speed will be the determining factor. Pacquiao has been used to being the quicker guy for a long time now. I wonder if he knows how to deal with someone faster than him? I’m predicting a 12th-round TKO win for Timothy Bradley as he outfights and outboxes Pacquiao all 3 minutes of every round and it weighs on Pac enough to hold him down in the 12th. He’ll try and fight valiantly, but youth will be served in this fight. ? Kyle in Washington
That would be a most spectacular victory for Bradley. In my opinion, it would be a bigger upset than Mosley?s first victory over De La Hoya (by the way, I correctly predicted Sugar Shane would win by split-decision 12 years ago). I agree that there are similarities between Mosley?s first challenge to The Golden Boy and Bradley?sshowdown with the PacMan. Both African-American Southern Californian?s were 3-to-1 underdogs. Both were appreciated by hardcore fans and boxing insiders but relatively unknown outside of the sport compared to their famous and heavily favored opponents. Both were strength and conditioning freaks at their physical peak and both possessed aggressive, Mexican-inspired boxing styles.
However, unlike Bradley, Mosley had the edge of punching power.
I don?t agree with your prediction but I agree that Bradley?s speed will be major factor in this fight. When you add Bradley?s quickness to his desire, tenacity, physical strength, somewhat awkward style and tendency to lead with his head, you?ve got a major pain in the ass for any fighter ? even one of Pacquiao?s stature.
I think Bradley?s speed will enable his counter right hand and body attack to find their marks and hurt Pacquiao, but I believe that his aggression and penchant for pressing his opponents will play into the harder-punching hands of the Filipino hero.
I know Bradley?s style was poison for other southpaws ? Junior Witter, Devon Alexander and Joel Casamayor ? but I?m not sure it will work against Pacquiao, who stands his ground more than those three.
Regarding the ?experts? predictions overwhelmingly favoring Pacquiao, I don?t think anyone is ?dumping? on Bradley. Most of the boxing media has the utmost respect for Bradley. They?ve seen him win more than Pacquiao, who most of us press row folks witnessed lose to Erik Morales. I think boxing writers and insiders are going with Pacquiao for three reasons: he?s the odds favorite (and most of us, especially scribes, go with the chalk), we know he?s used to mega events, and (as you noted) Bradley?s lack of power (we?re too damn jaded to think Timmy can win a decision against Pacquaio in Vegas).
BRADLEY BEST PAC?S FACED IN YEARS
If you look at Pacquiao?s resume since 2008, what fighter has he beaten that Bradley wouldn’t have beaten? I rest my case. Bradley by unanimous decision. ? Tyler K.
Hmmmm? let me think about that statement. Yeah, I would go with Bradley over the 130-pound version of JM Marquez, David Diaz and the shell of De La Hoya that the PacMan brutalized. I think Bradley would outpoint Ricky Hatton (probably by late technical decision after the bout is stopped due to the 140-pound champ?s face being reduced to hamburger thanks to Timmy?s forehead), but I think it would be a competitive (and ugly) fight. I don?t think Bradley would blast Hatton out the way Manny did.
And I?m not sure if Bradley could beat the 145-pound version of Cotto that Pacquiao bested in late 2009. That probably would have been a darn good fight. I think I favor Cotto in that one. I also think Bradley would have had a heck of a time dealing with Josh Clottey. Timmy has the speed and activity to outwork and outpoint Clottey as Pacquiao did, but I?m not sure he has the power to put and keep the Ghanaian in his shell for 12 rounds. I favor Bradley on points, but not by a wide margin.
I think Bradley would outclass the faded (and thankfully now retired) versions of Antonio Margarito and Mosley that Pac fought in late ?10 and ?11, but I think he would got tit-for-tat with the 142-pound version of Marquez right down to the final bell.
Come to think of it, Bradley-Marquez would be a fascinating matchup. If you?re right, and Bradley does win tomorrow night, that?s a fight I?d like to see (right after the Pacquiao rematch, of course). PACQUIAO?S GOT THIS
Hi Doug, Lots of people are calling for a tough fight for Pac. I hope that turns out to be true, but here is something that might prevent that from happening. Despite his impressive physique, Bradley does not punch with authority. Rather than putting his body into each punch, he throws arm punches. And when he perceives his opponent to be hurt, he throws wild arm punches. I think he will be able to push Manny around a bit in the ring, but I don’t think he can hurt Manny or even accumulate points with impressive punches.
Speaking of punching power, I saw a clip of Marcos Maidana hitting the mitts. He was punching with authority. ? John, Great White North
I?m looking forward to Maidana?s first fight with Robert Garcia in his corner.
I agree that Bradley tends to gets a little wild when he thinks he?s hurt his opponent, and I agree that he?s vulnerable when he swarms, but I don?t agree that all of his shots are ?arm punches.? Some of them are, but he delivers some with proper leverage, such as his overhand right and his body shots. (These are punches that can be effective against Pacquiao.)
I think he might be able to hurt Pacquiao and pile up points if Manny isn?t 100-percent tomorrow night. Of course, on the flip side, I?m pretty darn sure that Pacquiao can hurt Bradley.
I?m also pretty sure that Bradley is there for Manny?s straight left. Joel Casamayor was able to time Bradley with clean one-twos in each of the first four or five rounds of their fight last November. Timmy was fortunate the faded Cuban vet had no legs and absolutely zero on his punches.
Despite his lack of KO power and occasional defensive holes, Bradley?s speed, physical strength and quirky style should give Pacquiao problems.
I think he?s going to make Pacquiao look bad for a few rounds and then make the Filipino veteran look great.
END OF THE PACQUIAO ERA
Greetings Mr. Fischer,
Been a while since the days when I would email you regularly back in the Maxboxing days. Got married, have a kid on the way, retired from my 3-fight amateur career. Life gets in the way of boxing.
I?m chiming in as a Pacquiao fan (or maybe a former Pacquiao fan because of this pick) – I?m going with Bradley by SD this Saturday. This is the first time I picked against the Pacman since the De La Hoya fight (and even that fight I thought Pac was a very live dog). Before that, it was the first Morales fight. So in all this upset pick will only be the third time since 2005 that I have picked against the Pacman. I have made good money betting on Pacquiao all these years.
The reasons for the upset are the ones that all boxing fans know, but choose to downplay. Bradley?s youth, strength, ability to take a punch, hard noggin and Pacquiao?s focus now on religion and politics, his poor performance in the last fight, his age and on and on.
It?s the end of an era on Saturday. I, like many boxing fans, was caught up in Pacman fever particularly from 2008 through 2011. I wish I could say it started for me back in 2001 against Lehlo Ledwaba or even 2003 against Marco Antonio Barrera, but it was 2004 when I joined the Pacman bandwagon with that sensational first round performance against Juan Manuel Marquez.
I think only 10% of the ?experts? are picking Bradley. Am I missing something here? ? JL, San Diego
The ?experts? aren?t really experts (and that includes me). The more we think we know about boxing, the more it confounds us, so most of us go with the chalk. Pacquiao is a 4-to-1 favorite. (We figure the odds makers are usually correct. Vegas wouldn?t exist if they weren?t.)
Having said that, I agree that all of Bradley?s attributes you mentioned (?youth, strength, ability to take a punch, hard noggin?) will serve him well. If Pacquiao is indeed beginning to fade due to age (and burning the candle at both ends), and if he?s unfocused, Bradley is just the guy to take advantage of it.
I don?t know if Bradley can win a decision in Vegas (honestly, he?ll need to win nine CLEAR rounds just to get that split decision you predict), but if he does, it?s been one hell of a ride on the Pac-train.
GOLOVKIN-PIROG CONFUSION
Hi Doug,
Just heard the Gennady Golovkin vs. Dmitry Pirog fight has been made ?great news I think, any fight that likely establishes a credible name in the middleweight division is cool with me. This fight should do that. What do you reckon?
However, I?m a little confused about a couple things. Firstly, on BoxRec is says the fight is for the Super WBA title ? hasn?t Sturm already got that? Also, it doesn?t list Pirog?s WBO title as being at stake. He is still the WBO strap holder isn?t he? Why isn?t it featuring in the bout?
Am I missing something? Please bring clarity to my life Doug!!!
(p.s. Rather excited about a couple fights in a fortnights time: Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs. Andy Lee and Thomas Adamek vs. Eddie Chambers. How do you see those going?) Warm regards. ? Callum, England
I?m also looking forward to June 16. That?s going to be a fun night of boxing. I like both Junior and Adamek by close, perhaps controversial, decisions. The judges are going to give the benefit of the doubt to the more aggressive fighters who happen to have the crowd on their side.
There?s no need to be confused about the Golovkin-Pirog fight. Here?s all you need to know: both middleweights are undefeated and in their prime. Both can box, fight and punch. The fight will be shown in the U.S. (on HBO on August 25) and it should be a good one.
Don?t worry about the belts. WBA ?super? middleweight beltholder is still The Sturminator (good for him). Golovkin?s ?regular? WBA strap will be on the line. Pirog?s WBO title will not be. Why? Who cares!?
What matters is that the winner will gain recognition as a worthy challenger to RING champ Sergio Martinez. And if Martinez is busy with the Chavez-Lee winner later this year, the Golovkin-Pirog winner could/should go for the winner of the interesting Sturm-Daniel Geale partial unification bout (Sept. 1) or an unbeaten up-and-comer such as Martin Murray or Peter Quillin. MOVING BACK 6-12 YEARS
Hey Dougie,
I won’t be going on about Pacquiao-Bradley. Everything has been said and predicted already and most of us already know who’s going to win this one. Instead I’m going to discuss David Reid’s abrupt last stand, Shane Mosley’s retirement and Winky Wright now that he’s hopefully fought his last bout. All of these guys along with certain rivals had some really crucial moments back in 2000 or 2006 or both.
Starting with Reid, I never saw that fight against Trinidad. But I certainly read enough about it and that alone was scary enough. Very few guys were as brave and willing as Reid. And man, that was his undoing. The guy literally went out on his shield. And if fights were still 15 rounds Reid would have ended up like Duk Koo Kim against Ray Mancini back in 1982. One more round or even one more left-hook would have done it. Poor bastard. I still wonder why a brutal pounding like that was allowed to go on for 12 entire rounds. It also just showed what a f__king wrecking-machine Trinidad was back then. First Reid and then that huge beat-down on Fernando Vargas. Vargas himself was certainly not the same fighter after that one but at least his senses are still intact.
Moving to Mosley all I can say is that it’s about time already! I remember how screwy he sounded just before the Saul Alvarez fight. No one certainly wanted to see this guy become the next Evander Holyfield. Like everyone else I thought Mosley’s greatest moment was his thrilling win over a prime Oscar De La Hoya in 2000. That made him pretty much the best fighter in the world back then. I also remember his crucial 2006 crossroads fight with Fernando Vargas. By then both guys were once kick-ass fighters trying to rebound. Mosley sure pumped some new life in his career with that brutal left-hook that took care of Vargas once and for all. Not that it stopped all those critics for talking s__t about Mosley for losing fights to Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright. Nevertheless, I knew Mosley clearly still had some fight in him and he certainly proved it against Luis Collazo, Miguel Cotto and especially Antonio Margarito. Anyhow, here’s wishing Shane a happy retirement.
And Winky Wright? Count me as one of those who thought he got ripped off against Jermain Taylor back in ’06. He clearly out-fought Taylor as far as I’m concerned. That “draw’ was pure bulls__t. After that Wright just lost much of his edge right there. He just didn’t seem to care any more. Otherwise he wouln’t have taken those long leaves of absence. But suppose we had more competent judges for that fight? Wright would have enjoyed a nice little reign on top. He probably would have out-boxed Kelly Pavlik and even beat Paul Williams. He still would have lost the title when Sergio Martinez came around but that certainly would be no disgrace. Oh here’s the big question concerning Wright. Is he Hall-worthy? I say yes. Dominant wins over Shane Mosley and Felix Trinidad should be enough to win over the voters. What do you think?
Oh just one more thing Doug. The Manny Pacquiao of 2009 versus the Shane Mosley of 2000. Who would have won? Cheers Buddy! ? Dave W.
Good lord. ?09 Manny vs. ?00 Shane at 147 pounds would be a brutally scintillating war of attrition. ?Power boxer? vs. ?power boxer.? I?m going with Mosley by late stoppage. At the time he had the activity, physical strength, durability and punching power to beat Pacquiao at his own game.
Both Winky and Shane will get a checkmark from this IBHOF voter when I see their names on the ballot.
I agree that Wright deserved the decision against Taylor (but wasn?t surprised at all that he got jobbed ? I actually predicted the draw in that one). I also agree the official verdict in that fight took his heart out of the game. But he Wright had an excellent run from early 2004 to mid-?06. In my not-so humble opinion his back-to-back decisions over Mosley (which made him the undisputed jr. middle champ), shutout over Tito and bold challenge to Taylor (which should have made him the undisputed middleweight champ) made him the sport?s No. 1 P4P player (an opinion that pissed off Mayweather and Pacquiao fans back in ?06).
Mosley?s first victory over De La Hoya is one of the sweetest (excuse the pun) memories from my early days of covering the sport. The old HouseofBoxing.com did a mini-documentary on Mosley (from his Big Bear camp) before that fight (we called it “Facing Destiny”), which happens to be one of the first internet video features on boxing. Mosley was a guy I was high on before the internet took off (damn, I feel kind of old writing that); before I wrote about boxing for a living. Shane was the first prospect I saw fight and train where I just knew he?d kick ass once he made it to the world-class scene. Watching promising young guns develop into world beaters ? and go from nobody to somebody ? is still a great thrill (and one of the reasons I love following this sport), but Mosley obviously has a special place in my heart.
Speaking of heart, you?re absolutely right that Reid had too much of it against Tito. That guy was a ?Philly fighter? to the core. Despite his inspirational gold medal performance at the ?96 Olympic Games, he wasn?t destined to last in the pro ranks. He had that droopy eye, too many amateur bouts (many of which were tough fights), and he was moved too fast once he turned pro. He was showing signs of fading before the Trinidad fight, even before his WBA title winning effort 9in just his 12th pro bout).
I really hope Reid continues to get the help he needs and the few good people around him try their best to support him through the hard times.
PACMAN VS. BUTTHEAD
So here it is Dougie. Pac-man vs Bonk. The big clash between two guys nicknamed after old ?80s video-game characters.
Originally I picked Pac just like everyone else but I didn’t rule out the possibility of Bradley winning a shocker. What was I thinking? The Pac-Machine is going to chew up Bonker-Boy, plain and simple.
He’s too determined and fired up to lose. Yeah, Bradley is all fired up as well for this dream opportunity he’s getting. Too bad it will become a nightmare for him once that first bell rings.
Sure Pac went life and death with Juan Manuel Marquez. But that’s Marquez. While Bradley’s clearly no dumb-ass in the ring he still doesn’t have Marquez’s ring-smarts and experience against world-class opposition nor would he be able to crack hard enough to even get Pac’s attention the way Marquez clearly did.
Of course Bradley could try breaking down Pac with his big mallet of a forehead all the while breaking the compu-bonk stats. But his Billy goat tactics might just set him up for that massive left that will knock him into the far side of frigging Queer Street. And no, that wasn’t a pun referring to Pac’s supposed gay-bashing in case any of you were wondering. Not that I give a s__t about that ridiculous little side-show.
Anyways my pick is Manny by early or mid-rounds kayo with the HBO guys giving him the royal ass-kissing from start to finish. Cripes, even Merchant who usually rips just about every other fighter will work his lips like a super-plunger when Manny’s around. Open ass, insert head, and turn the power up to maximum suckage. Knock yourself out, guys.
And if Bradley proves me wrong and pulls possibly the biggest upset since Sanders-Klitchko? Heck, I’ll back off from e-mailing you for two months. I’ll keep my opinions in check for 60 days which will in turn decrease your mail-bag workload considerably for much of the summer. Of course I could make it for a year or two but too much will be happening and there’s no way a verbal guy like me could shut up that long. Two months will be challenging enough. Now if Bradley actually knocks out Pacquiao?!! With his fists not his head!? Crap, I will make it two whole frigging years and give up all forms of caffeine (my staple diet) while I’m at it. And if it’s a head-butt kayo then let’s cut it to 8 months. So let’s shake on this one. And no, my fingers weren’t crossed behind my back when I typed this. Providing this column makes it to the Friday Mailbag then the bet is on. I will get back to you next week to make it official. ? Todd The Terminator
You?re crazy, Todd, but you crack me up. It?s a bet, and I?m gonna hold you to your terms, although I think you?re safe.
However, I disagree that Bradley lacks the experience against world-class opponents and the power to get Manny?s attention. He?s got enough to make this a fight, but in the end, I agree that Pac?s gonna catch him with something monstrous.
I just don?t see it happening in the early rounds.
