Saturday?s rematch between WBA junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (36-2, 29 KOs) and former three-time title holder Antonio Margarito (38-7, 27 KOs) is the ultimate case of unfinished business. Their original encounter in July of 2008 was a war that Margarito won via eleventh round TKO. But as we all know, a plaster-like substance was discovered in Margarito?s handwraps just before his very next fight against Shane Mosley in January of 2009. This discovery has led most people to believe that Margarito used the same ?loaded? handwraps the night he defeated Miguel Cotto, which takes away any validity to the victory.
Based on what I saw in the first fight, Margarito would have defeated Cotto with or without illegal handwraps. Cotto was boxing effectively in that fight and landing a lot of clean punches, but he couldn?t hurt him or slow him down in any way. Margarito was always forcing the action and after a while, Cotto began to run out of gas. And it was at this point that Margarito began to land some shots of his own and do some damage. Whether Margarito has plaster in his wraps or not, he?s a devastating puncher. And when he hits a 147-154 pound man, he?s going to hurt him. Cotto has good counter-punching skills and boxing ability, but he?s not slick. He can?t stick and move for twelve rounds without tiring and he doesn?t always avoid the big shots. And a pressure-fighter like Margarito who can take his best punch and keep coming is always going to be a nightmare for him.
But while the first fight between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito demonstrated their strengths and weaknesses, both fighters have suffered a great deal of ware and tear since that time. And in my eyes, this fight might just come down to who has the most left. Cotto took a great deal of punishment in their first fight. And when he fought Joshua Clottey, he suffered a bad cut and took some heavy shots. And in his fight after that, he was TKO?d by Manny Pacquiao in the twelfth round. But since the Pacquiao fight, Cotto seems to have gotten his legs under him with TKO wins over Yuri Foreman and Ricardo Mayorga. While Margarito came out on top in his fight with Cotto, he paid a price for his troubles. And in his first fight after the war with Cotto, he was brutally knocked out by Shane Mosley in the ninth round. After a fifteenth month layoff, he looked average in defeating unknown Roberto Garcia via unanimous decision. And in his next fight, he took a savage beating at the hands of Manny Pacquiao in a fight that went the distance, but left him with a broken orbital bone.
I?ve been saying for years that Margarito has Cotto?s number. And if both fighters were at their absolute best, I would favor Margarito to win via late round stoppage. But I?m not convinced that Margarito can still be a force in the ring. He still has a great deal of pride, as was demonstrated in his fight with Manny Pacquiao. But he may no longer have the fire and explosiveness. Then again, I have felt for a while now that Miguel Cotto?s best days are in the past. I thought the fight with Margarito took a lot out of him. And after his fight with Manny Pacquiao, I believed that he was all but finished. Cotto is a resilient fighter and he looked good against Yuri Foreman and Ricardo Mayorga, but those were not opponents who could test him and see how much he has left. I sort of see the rematch between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito as a 50-50 fight, but I view Cotto as a slight favorite to win a decision. For Margarito to win, he has to knock him out. As was demonstrated in their first fight, Margarito can only do damage when Cotto begins to wilt under the pressure. And until that happens, the fight is going to be all Cotto. I see Margarito absorbing a ton of shots, like he did before. But this time, I think he?s going to bust up and feel the effects of the punishment. I believe he will be able to remain on his feet throughout the bout, but I don?t think he has the energy or the enthusiasm to flip the switch and impose his will as he did before
