Dan Rafael’s analysis
Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez: Their first two sensational fights could have gone either way, a draw at featherweight and a one-point split decision for Pacquiao at junior lightweight. That was then. This is now. Since the 2008 rematch, Pacquiao has advanced through the weight divisions to become a powerful welterweight, while Marquez failed miserably in his only 147-pound fight, getting wiped out by Floyd Mayweather Jr. It won’t be any easier against Pacquiao. He’s faster, six years younger and more powerful than Marquez. Despite their two close bouts, the fact that this fight is in a division Pacquiao has dominated in recent years, and the fact that he has developed a strong right hand, spells doom for Marquez. Pacquiao dropped Marquez four times as a one-handed lefty. Now, as a more well-rounded two-fisted puncher who is bigger and stronger, Pacquiao — who is highly motivated to score a non-controversial win — should deliver a knockout and the most decisive outcome of their rivalry.
Timothy Bradley Jr.-Joel Casamayor: Bradley, a possible future Pacquiao opponent, is getting a showcase against a southpaw (Pacquiao is left-handed). But Bradley-Casamayor is a terrible fight on paper because it’s a bad style matchup. Given the fighters’ histories, there may be more head-butts landed than solid punches. Casamayor is 40 and shot. He hasn’t looked good in at least his past six fights, dating to a 2007 gift decision he got against Jose Armando Santa Cruz. Casamayor was shaky in a win against Michael Katsidis, suffered a clean knockout loss to Marquez, lost a lopsided decision to Robert Guerrero and struggled in a split-decision win against journeyman Manuel Leyva in March. Simply, this fight matches a top-10 pound-for-pound fighter against a former pound-for-pounder with nothing left but his name. At 28, Bradley is in his prime and should roll to a decision victory in a junior welterweight title defense.
