For those expecting a third war in the Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez series, don’t count on it.
The first two wars between the pound-four-pound talents were modern day classics with back and forth, live or die combat that had fans on the edge of their seats. The ebb and flow of action between two athletes executing at the highest level was boxing at its best.
In their 2004 first contest at the featherweight limit, Marquez would battle back from three first round knockdowns to even the bout and walk away with a hard-fought draw.
Then, in their 2008 super featherweight rematch, Marquez would push ahead and take the action to a hard-charging Pacquiao despite tasting the canvas in the third round. At the end of twelve, the Filipino superstar had his arm raised in victory, the winner of a close, disputed split decision. So disputed was the decision that even many in the partisan Filipino media had Marquez pulling off the win.
Now, just three years after their second encounter, one would think that the next installment of their series would be just as close and evenly-contested.
However, while Marquez will always possess the ideal style to defeat Pacquiao, the world will soon find out that having the right style at the completely wrong time and under the wrong conditions is a sure recipe for disaster? especially when facing the best offensive fighter in the sport.
First, age will be a factor. At 38 years of age, Marquez is at the stage of his career where many fighters find themselves getting old overnight. And for those who follow the career of the Mexican star, the gradual slow down began two or three years ago. What will happen when a fighter on the decline, physically, takes on a turbo-charged prime, elite, all-aggression fighter? Ask Shane Mosley, Oscar De la Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, or Antonio Margarito.
Second, no matter how anyone spins it, Marquez will be moving up two weight classes to meet a Pacquiao who is now a legitimate, comfortable welterweight. Most boxing people acknowledge that the current lightweight champ was probably a division higher than his optimal weight class, anyway. Now, add another nine pounds to a fighter who is already slowing down and the end result will likely be disastrous.
Ideally, this third bout would’ve happened back in 2009 at the lightweight limit, but this is Manny’s show now and he gets to call the shots. Marquez, if he wants the pay day and a shot at redemption, needs to make all the concessions.
