Size. This factor, above all others, will be the difference in the fight. Pacquiao is naturally bigger, period, no matter what they both weigh on fight night; some fighters are just better at a weight than the other, and that’s the track record here, where Pacquiao is the top welterweights in the world and Marquez is the top lightweight with one miserable showing at welter. If Marquez can make any headway having mitigated the size advantage Pacquiao will hold at 144 pounds, then Marquez could be live. It’s a daunting prospect. Marquez is a natural featherweight overachieving at lightweight. Pacquiao is a natural junior welterweight overachieving above that. Clearly, both have showed that you can achieve things at weights less than ideal. But boxing history shows that sometimes boxers can win a fight on size difference alone. It affects almost everything else in this post, besides.
How’s Marquez doing? He sure LOOKS bigger than his last journey up to 144 pounds, a loss to Floyd Mayweather last year. Against Mayweather, he was doughy and had to try hard to get up that high. This time, with the help of strength coach Angel Hernandez — and, if you’re highly suspicious, whatever illegal substances Hernandez, a former confirmed steroid supplier, gives him — he is visibly bigger and more muscular. There’s also a chance that having fought at the weight once, it’ll be a more natural weight the second time. There’s a chance that with the right training, he could do what Roy Jones, Jr. did after briefly abandoning light heavyweight and walking into the ring an undersized but effective heavyweight. That’s a rare example. Pacquiao has more slowly moved up and adjusted to the weight, and despite similar physical dimensions of approximately 5’7″ height and 67″ reach. He’s bigger, the only issue is how much it will matter. Edge: Pacquiao
Speed. This has always been a huge advantage for Pacquiao over everyone, and it was in both his fights with Marquez. But how much have each of them slowed since the last time they faced one another, in 2008? Some see Pacquiao as slower than he was at his peak, both of hand and foot; others see a fighter who simply has moved up in weight and naturally would have dropped off. A few years ago, sparring partners who had faced both Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather said Pacquiao was faster; recently, Shane Mosley, who had faced both recently, said Mayweather was. There’s a chance he is slower overall, not just at the weight. That could minimize the advantage, some.
Unless, of course, Marquez also has slowed down. And he has. The Marquez who was reasonably quick at 126 and 130 pounds simply hasn’t been at 135, getting out-quicked or nearly out-quicked by Juan Diaz and Michael Katsidis. His punches are a bit more lumbering these days. He’s never been particularly quick of foot, but at least he has good footwork, and he makes up for a lack of speed on offense with counterpunching and timing. Making matters worse, he was glacial at 144 pounds. He and his team say they’ve corrected that with the aforementioned intelligent weight gain. I’ll believe it when I see it. Edge: Pacquiao
Power. Pacquiao punches hard enough as a welterweight that the same thing has happened to everyone he’s faced there: Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey and Mosley all went into survival mode after tasting his power, if not sooner. Pacquiao punches hard enough at junior middleweight that he can break the face of a man who outweighs him by nearly 20 pounds, Antonio Margarito. He’s always had real power, be it because of Mosley’s weird explanation about him snapping his punches better than anyone he’s ever faced or because his speed amplifies whatever he has naturally or some reason we don’t understand.
