On Saturday night Bernard Hopkins continues his battle against father time and for the third time in a row he will do it against an athletically gifted, prime Light Heavyweight. And while Jean Pascal was able to beat Chad Dawson when they met, I think Chad is a tougher foe for the old master. And while HBO executives beg and pray for the miracle of breaking even financially, we have an intriguing fight on our hands.
Not only did Hopkins break George Foreman?s record for the oldest fighter to win a title, but he brought some fans back into the fold with two exciting fights against the Canadian. I wouldn?t expect that to continue here. For one, Pascal has notoriously weak stamina and the faster pace early enabled Hopkins to command the ring late. Secondly, while he is still the closest thing to the fountain of youth that I have seen, he is starting to show signs of deterioration from a balance stand point. As smart as he is, that could have been a factor in his more aggressive style.
Dawson has consistently taken on the toughest available opponents and this is a fight he has sought for years. But none of that has resonated with fans and he still is an afterthought in most of their eyes. He can be dazzling to some of us, yes I am a big fan, but his demeanor often gives off the impression that he is bored and his lack of finishing power has led to tons of criticism. Some of it is valid; some of it is over the top. I?ve read many fans question his heart and desire and that is something I can?t agree with. I defy anyone to find a moment in a fight where Chad takes a hard shot and doesn?t immediately respond. The sentiment that his lack of desire led to his defeat against Pascal is selling jean short. Dawson is never in his comfort zone leading and I feel that he really struggled when facing his athletic equal for the first time in his career and was lulled into a flow that suited his opponent. Even then, he was closing strong when the fight was stopped.
This is a fascinating fight from a technical stand point. All of Hopkins fights are for me and despite the minimal replay value of many of them I almost always enjoy watching him fight. I think this fight will be determined by who ends up taking the lead, and I feel that fighter will lose. They are both counter-punchers at heart and especially in the case of Hopkins I feel he needs that as counter-punching is an aging fighters best friend. At the same time Bernard seems to want to go out with exciting contests and I feel like that may drive him to be the aggressor.
Dawson is in a must win situation, his lack of drawing power and fan appeal can?t sustain another loss in a high profile fight. But in my estimation his heart along with his speed are his greatest assets in the ring. Chad is a bit of a sucker for a counter right hand and I think after a feeling out process Hopkins will catch Dawson and floor him with a counter right in the third or fourth round. I expect that to invigorate both of them and put Bernard more in the lead. One spot I think will surprise Hopkins is Dawson?s prowess on the inside, his right hooks to the body are very effective and the speed with which he delivers that shot should allow him to connect with more frequency than most of Hopkins foes. This wont be one for the ages, but I do feel it will be very tight and dramatic. I?m guessing here, it could go either way, but I?ll take Dawson by split decision in a fight that leaves Nard exasperated and fans preaching loudly from both sides of the coin.
****
Danny Garcia will face his biggest test to date in a classic crossroads fight against Kendall Holt. While Holt was impressive in knocking out Julio Diaz, I think too many people are forgetting how badly he was dominated by Kaiser Mabuza. But make no mistake; he still brings a lot of power in his left hook and the kind of speed that caused Garcia all kinds of trouble against Ashley Theophane.
I wouldn?t classify Danny as a blue chip prospect but he looks like a workmanlike fighter that will push top the top of his division. He is well rounded, if not great, and doesn?t have any glaring weaknesses. I think that attention to putting in work will get the job done here. Holt should catch him, maybe drop him, a time or two but I think Garcia will steadily grind him down to a late stoppage or clear decision win.
****
I?m not one to beat around the bush, so I?ll just come out and say it. I don?t think Antonio Demarco is a world class fighter and while I also think Jorge Linares has plenty of chinks in his amour I find it hard to envision this fight being competitive. Demarco may have gone through a bit of stage fright in his fight with Edwin Valero, but the more pressure he applies the more I think Linares will pick him apart to the tune of an entertaining, but lopsided unanimous decision.
*****
Off of the card in Argentina is a rematch of an exciting scrap between the boisterous Celestino Caballero and Jonathan Barros. While I have never thought as highly of caballero as he does of himself, I did feel he won the first fight and I expect him to take it out of the judge?s hands in the rematch and secure a late stoppage in what may well be the most action packed fight of the weekend.
