You want to see Floyd Mayweather take on Manny Pacquiao. Of course. We all do. But in this maddening sport, where nobody except those who run the business ever gets what they want, we?re going to have to settle for the next best thing. In this case, that happens to be Victor Ortiz. It wasn?t all that long ago, less than six months in fact, that the very idea of Ortiz going up against Floyd Mayweather would have been considered completely outlandish. A surprise loss to Marcos Maidana, followed by a series of lukewarm performances, had dramatically lowered expectations for the heavy handed youngster. But just when it looked like Ortiz might never follow through on his potential, he pulled off his own upset, scoring a decisive win over Andre Berto in April. It was just one victory?perhaps over a fighter that was more hype than substance?but Ortiz got the job done, and did so in an entertaining manner. And in boxing circa 2011, where top fighters see action only twice a year and records of all but a select few are filled mostly with padding, a single quality win is all it takes to propel someone to the status of being a reasonable supporting player in the next Pay-Per-View extravaganza. So, at least by today?s standards, Ortiz is worthy of the opportunity. All well and good, but does he have a realistic chance of winning? Probably not, as an inability to divert his head from flush right hand counters is a recipe for disaster against the likes of Mayweather, but Ortiz does have few more things going for him than the typical mega-fight opponent. For starters, at 24, he?s not a fighter on the verge of middle age. He?s also not undersized, doesn?t have to drain himself to make the weight, and isn?t coming off a severe beating. So what we have here is a close to prime, relatively fresh, fully fledged welterweight. Considering the lowered expectations we carry for the sport these days, that?s not too bad. In addition, Ortiz has plenty of offensive talent, highlighted by decent hand speed and the ability to crack with either hand. He also throws a variety of punches that he puts together nicely in combination. He?s dropped fighters with heavy straight lefts, tightly thrown right hooks, and is not averse to letting his hand go in close, where his uppercut is a dangerous weapon. There?s also the belief held in some quarters that Ortiz?s southpaw stance could spell trouble for the favorite. Backers of this theory will point to Mayweather?s failure to dominate Zab Judah in the opening few rounds of their 2006 bout, as well as a couple rough moments supplied by DeMarcus Corley in an earlier junior-welterweight clash. Against Judah, with the Brooklyn fighter taking a conservative counter-punching approach, Mayweather took it upon himself to force the issue, and was touched up on a few occasions with clean shots ? one a counter right that caused Mayweather?s glove to briefly touch down during the second round. Though held on level terms through the first third of the fight, Mayweather?s technical know-how eventually took over, leading to a more than comfortable unanimous decision victory. In the bout with Corley, Mayweather, taking a more aggressive approach than usual, was tagged on the side of the jaw with a crisp straight left in the third round, before being wacked with a right hand early in the fourth session. Mayweather reacted by taking his foot slightly off the pedal after the first instance, and though he was clearly hurt by the fourth-round shot, he was still able to calmly slip and parry Corley?s follow-up assault along the ropes, before quickly turning the tables and unleashing his own attack. Considering the final one-sided results of both fights, it?s probably a stretch to say that Mayweather is really troubled by southpaws. But at the same time, he had enough anxious moments ? at least by Mayweather?s standards ? to make one consider the possibility that Ortiz could bang home something hurtful. Is there anything else that optimistic Ortiz backers might look to for hope? There?s his activity. He?s been fighting regularly, while Mayweather hasn?t. Ortiz has fought six opponents, totaling 52 rounds of work over the past 20 months. During that time, his adversary has fought only once. Such a schedule might not have meant as much to Mayweather a few years ago, but at age 34 the defensive wizard?s reflexes may have slowed a touch, and coupled with ring rust, he just might be a little bit more vulnerable to getting tagged. It might not be the perfect comparison, but a similarly inactive 34-year-old Sugar Ray Leonard lost badly to underdog Terry Norris in 1991. Having been away from the ring for 14 months, Leonard was hammered over 12 rounds by the 23-year-old junior middleweight. Mayweather hasn?t shown the same chinks in his armor as Leonard had in previous bouts, though he was staggered badly by Mosley, and it?s tough to gauge the value of his win in his previous bout against the smaller Marquez. We just haven?t really seen enough lately to know how good this current version of Mayweather still is. So there are a few factors that should at least give a moment?s pause to those already handing Mayweather the victory. And remember, it?s a fight, not a prize simply given away to the man with the best resume, but a contest won in the ring, and as we?ve seen many times in the past, anything can happen when the bell goes.
