Even though there are five months left in this year, it is not too soon to start thinking about who the 2011 Fighter of the Year might be. So far, like the Republican presidential nominee race, no single candidate has broken free from the rest of the pack. Several fighters are still in the running. Upcoming bouts will go a long way toward determining who gets the plaque.
One thing is clear, though. None of the three most recent winners of the FOTY accolade (determined separately, and not always unanimously, by various parties such as The Ring magazine and the Boxing Writers Association of America) is likely to garner that honor this year.
Manny Pacquiao will not be FOTY, even if he beats nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez in their 144-lb catchweight contest this November. This is the third bout between the two, with Marquez surviving three first-round knockdowns to manage a draw in the first bout, and coming off the floor again to lose by a controversial decision in the second encounter ? both of which took place at weights well south of 144 lb. Despite the closeness of those fights, Marquez is a decided underdog this time, mainly because Pacquiao is still at his peak, while Marquez has shown signs of slippage. Also, Pacquiao has shown better form at the higher weight than has Marquez. Pacquiao?s only other fight this year was his one-sided beatdown of Shane Mosley. Though he is likely to finally certify his mastery of Marquez, this will not be a vintage year for the Pacman.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. will not be FOTY. His only contest this year will be next month?s showdown with WBC welterweight champion Victor Ortiz. Although Ortiz is younger and a hard hitter, he will be a huge underdog against Mayweather. Beating Ortiz will hardly rank as one of Mayweather?s greatest accomplishments.
Middleweight king Sergio Martinez will not be FOTY. Last year, he outpointed Kelly Pavlik and flattened Paul Williams. Those wins were enough to push him past Pacquiao and Mayweather. This year, Martinez kayoed then-undefeated Serhiy Dzinziruk, and will face undefeated Darren Barker in October ? a fight Martinez is expected to win. But Dzinziruk and Barker are not Pavlik and Williams. And that eliminates Martinez from FOTY consideration.
Ironically, if Marquez or Ortiz ? or both ? manage to pull off upsets, they would automatically become prime FOTY candidates. Sure, Marquez?s only other fight this year was a one-round stoppage of a no-hoper named Likar Ramos. But if he finally gets the best of pound-for-pound king Pacquiao, that would be about as solid an FOTY credential as one could get ? other than a win over Mayweather, should Ortiz manage it. And Ortiz?s other bout this year, a thrill-fest against Andre Berto, was a Fight-of-the-Year contender.
An upset of Martinez would certainly be a feather in Barker?s cap. But Martinez has only recently come to the forefront. A win over him would not be as significant as victories by the other fighters over the much-more-established Pacquiao and Mayweather.
There are other candidates in the field. For example, the winner of the upcoming Super Six super-middleweight tournament final between Andre Ward and Carl Froch would have to merit serious FOTY consideration ? unless the bout turns out to be a dud, or ends in an unsatisfying technical decision due to head-butts. If Mayweather and Pacquiao prevail as expected in their fights, that opens the FOTY door for the Ward-Froch victor.
Amir Khan has had an iffy year so far. He defeated Paul McCloskey by technical decision, and stopped Zab Judah last month. However, carryover from his gutsy win over the dangerous Marcos Maidana last December could make him a dark horse for FOTY honors.
And then there?s the ageless wonder, Bernard Hopkins. B-Hop made history earlier this year by schooling Jean Pascal to become, at age 46, the oldest fighter to win a major world championship ? the WBC light-heavyweight crown. In October, he will defend that strap against Chad Dawson. If Hopkins wins the bout, he?ll be a strong FOTY contender. Of course, he?s already been there and done that. Now, by gosh, he can do it again.
Others in the hunt include junior-flyweight king Giovani Segura, Nonito Donaire if he can get another fight this year, and the winner of the Joseph Agbeko-Abner Mares bantamweight tournament final.
This is not the most inspiring slate of candidates, but it is competitive, at least.
So, readers, who do you think has the inside track to become the 2011 Fighter of the year?
Charles R. Saunders is the author of several books including Sweat and Soul: The Saga of Black Boxers in the Maritimes from the Halifax Forum to Caesars Palace, as well as the Imaro series of fantasy/adventure novels. Considered by many to be one of the leading authorities on boxing in Canada, he is the current Vice-President of Boxing for the Society of North American Sports Historians and Researchers. His latest novel, Damballa, which centers around a fictional heavyweight title bout, is available at www.gopulp.info.
