LAS VEGAS — Manny Pacquiao is an approximately 7-to-1 favorite at the Las Vegas sports books for Saturday night’s fight with Shane Mosley. Some of the questions being asked in the buildup to their clash at the MGM Grand Garden Arena:
Is Mosley shot? Since the second round against Floyd Mayweather Jr., when he had Mayweather in all kinds of trouble after landing a pair of monstrous right hands, Mosley has looked unexceptional at best. He dropped all the remaining rounds against Mayweather, then failed to impress in a draw against Sergio Mora (albeit a draw that most observers felt he should have won). Mosley started his career 38-0; since then, he is a pedestrian 8-6-1. It’s possible, at age 39, that he has reached the end of the road.
Can Mosley utilize his reach? If Mosley does still have something in his tank, can he make use of his seven-inch reach advantage? If Mosley can keep Pacquiao on the end of a stiff left jab, it could negate all of the Filipino’s plans. But Mosley’s jab has been pawing and ineffective for several fights now. Can he rediscover it in time?
What happens if Mosley hits Pacquiao flush? When Mosley landed two big bombs on Mayweather’s famously sturdy and elusive chin, a shocking upset appeared to be just one punch away. Pacquiao is easier to hit than Mayweather, but at the same time, he has willingly absorbed punishment from the likes of Miguel Cotto and come away unscathed. At some point, Mosley seems likely to detonate an explosive punch on Pacquiao’s jaw. How will Manny react? Will he wobble, or will he bite down on his mouthpiece, bang his gloves together and ask for more?
Will Pacquiao stand and trade? The expectation is that this will be a war, with both fighters going toe-to-toe. But Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, is well aware of the threat posed by Mosley’s right hand. Don’t be surprised if, especially early on, Pacquiao slides to his right, moving away from Mosley’s right hand and steering Mosley on to his left, using his perpetual energy to frustrate Mosley and then dart in with short explosive flurries before moving out again.
Can Mosley keep up? Mosley is famously well-conditioned. But as he struggled to catch up with Mayweather last year, he tensed up and ran out of gas. If Pacquiao, the Energizer Bunny of boxing, frustrates Mosley with his constant movement, and if Mosley is unable to keep up with his opponent’s pace, will the same thing happen again?
The prediction: Mosley will attempt to assert himself early on, but he’ll find himself needing to reach with his right hand as Pacquiao moves away and counters with hard lefts. Mosley will have some success early and rattle Pacquiao a couple of times, but by the fourth round Pacquiao will settle into a rhythm and become progressively more dominant in the exchanges, ultimately easing to a wide, unanimous points decision.
