Mandalay Bay holds a dry run for the big Manny Pacquiao ? Shane Mosley PPV tonight, hosting top ten-ranked Filipino featherweight Bernabe Concepcion and an up-and-coming local attraction in the main event. Las Vegan Diego Magdaleno is not in Concepcion?s class at this time but he carries a bigger upside and is the only boxer on the card without a loss. Accordingly, Magdaleno is given top billing, even though Concepcion will have considerable support from Filipinos making their pilgrimage to see Pacquiao. The opposition is standard fare and suitably flawed but both have engaged world-caliber opposition and should not be intimidated by the headliners. Of course, most of the attention is focused on Saturday night but this is a good diversion for fans as anticipation builds for the big event.
At the Mandalay Bay Casino, Las Vegas, NV (ESPN2) Diego Magdaleno (18-0) vs. Gilberto Leon (31-8-2) (ESPN2) Bernabe Concepcion (28-4-1) vs. Juan Martinez (18-12-1) (The Ring magazine #8 featherweight vs. unranked)
Juan Martinez – In spite of Martinez entering the ring with a 4-7 record in his last 11 fights, he is a sterner test than the recent record indicates. Three of those wins came against good opposition and Martinez pulled two of those upsets on American soil. Three of those setbacks were by split decision as well. In losses, Martinez invariably takes a round or two but gives up momentum easily, indicating he has become accepting of a ?sparring partner? mentality. Mexican toughman forces favorites to go the distance for their wins and has been on the losing end of close decisions to good fighters like Juan Carlos Burgos, Guty Espadas Jr. and Antonio DeMarco. Was elevated to this TV status by defeating Jose Hernandez in his last fight but truthfully, Hernandez is a solid 33-year-old club-fighter with one good win in his career. Nevertheless, credit to Martinez for not laying down in any fight and overcoming four losses in his first eight fights. The 29-year-old has enough defensive savvy, combined with a great chin, to last the distance against young bangers DeMarco and Wilton Hilario. What Martinez lacks is a game plan entering bouts and reacts to an opponent?s offense when he does not have the hand speed to be a consistent counterpuncher. A 23% kayo ratio speaks to his lack of power but Martinez has not been entered in enough matches that favor him to build a knockout r?sum?. Has fought in America ten times since 2007 and last year went 12 rounds with undefeated banger Juan Carlos Burgos. The two advantages I see for Martinez is that he has fought as high as 135 pounds and also enters with a three-inch height and reach advantage. He will need to use every bit of those physical assets to stay in the fight and hope that the long layoff for Concepcion wreaks havoc with his timing early in an eight-round bout.
Bernabe Concepcion ? Talk about a young veteran. This 23-year-old Filipino has been a pro for six years (193 rounds), impressing me by scoring his best wins on the road in Mexico and America. Concepcion does enter this fight off a nine-month layoff, which might be a good thing, given he was brutally stopped in a title fight setback to Juan Manuel Lopez. Aggressive volume puncher gets crowds on their feet with a brash, damn-the-torpedoes style and a dedication to bodywork that even Hispanic fans rooting for Martinez will appreciate. That style received some refinement after Freddie Roach took over his training, with Concepcion now throwing in lateral movement to cut off the ring more effectively. Concepcion was signed by Top Rank after he upset a then-undefeated Joksan Hernandez, with an eye toward the burgeoning Mexico and Puerto Rico vs. Philippines rivalry on the horizon. A 21-fight no-loss streak was snapped by a DQ loss to WBO champ Steven Luevano, when a frustrated Concepcion hit Luevano a split-second after the bell ending round seven. Against Luevano, Concepcion?s lack of footwork was out in the open for all to see and his defense was porous as well. However, because of his aggression, Concepcion was only a couple points behind on the scorecards and a big right hand always loomed to turn the tide. The Luevano loss showed Concepcion cannot win fighting on the outside and a lack of adaptability will be his undoing, if not corrected in the gym. Dealt well with southpaw Mario Santiago with the aid of an improved jab, a sign that Concepcion is teachable, improving, and maturing. Concepcion has gone the 12-round distance once and ten rounds on multiple occasions and his stamina is an asset in general that aids in overcoming a lack of world-class hand speed. Must improve on the defensive end, though Concepcion?s chin looks solid, despite not rolling with punches and a second round demolition at the fists of Juan Manuel Lopez. I would describe Concepcion as a sturdy come-at-you guy in the mold of 1930s-era sluggers Bat Battalino or Peter Kane.
Verdict ? If Martinez had a better mindset, I could see an upset, especially given the pair?s lack of speed and offensive versatility. However, Concepcion is younger, more teachable and not as set in his ways mentally or, frankly, as accepting of defeat. A layoff of over six months for Concepcion could be a factor but, given his volume style, it should not be a concern after the opening three minutes. Martinez does not have the foot speed or use the angles to make Concepcion miss but he will lean away from and ride Concepcion?s hooks out. Concepcion does not have the one-punch power to put Martinez on Queer Street, so I look for him to win all but two rounds and get back on the winning track.
Gilberto Leon ? Elongated Mexican veteran has already been in the ring twice this year and enters with 153 more rounds of experience (249 to 96, in 41 professional bouts) against a youthful opponent. Leon did lose in his last fight of consequence, to Top Rank prospect Robert Marroquin, but Leon was able to keep the fight within two points on the judges? scorecards. At 5?11?, with a 72-inch reach, Leon has good physical tools to work with but frustratingly fails to use that length to his benefit. Will often take his advantage away by leaning inwards or bending at the waist towards his opponent. In fact, Leon seems to prefer rumbling on the inside and is unexpectedly good at it with his long arms contorting at severe angles to score. For a tall boxer, has a sneaky short left hook that he tries to throw simultaneously with a foe?s punch and from the outside. Leon?s chin is good, only stopped once on cuts, and the experience to ride out rough patches as he did against Marroquin. Consistently throws a pawing jab, sometimes putting real snap into it, and uncoils a straight right hand down the middle after the concealing jab. Leon has a skinny chest and lean musculature but he has a broad back and is physically strong enough to push off bullying fighters. Is not very mobile with his feet, preferring to use his length to lean outwardly or pivot away from punches. Reportedly, Leon was given a nine-month suspension by testing positive for steroids after a loss to Eloy Perez. Enters with a 0-7-1 record since 2004 in America but is 17-0 in that same time span in Mexican rings. That includes good wins over power-punching Carlos Yanez and competent Adriel Juzaino. Leon has gone ten and 12 rounds on multiple occasions and is adept at pacing himself sometimes to the detriment of his punch output. Scaled 134? pounds for a fight one month ago, which was his highest recorded weight and not a good sign for an aging boxer who boxes best at 126 pounds.
Diego Magdaleno – You want unique? How about a pro boxer born in Beverly Hills? I am not sure if there is a rough section of the 90210 (Magdaleno did live in L.A. proper) but that is a factoid I have never seen on a boxing r?sum? before. What really matters is fighting pride and over a 111-16 amateur career, Magdaleno showed plenty of heart and passion. Settled for second place at the National PAL and Golden Gloves and lost in the quarterfinals of the 2007 Olympic trials. Did win a 2007 U.S lightweight title, beating undefeated pro prospect Jerry Belmontes. In the amateurs, Magdaleno was hurt by the rapid combinations he throws, which leave him open for singular counterpunches that judges score more often. Magdaleno moved to Las Vegas at age eight and finished high school there, with two brothers who box, and grew up idolizing Julio Cesar Chavez along with Oscar De La Hoya. Now, the 24-year-old has his sights set on pro gold and is backed by powerful Top Rank Promotions. A super-fluid southpaw, Magdaleno can lead or counter but prefers to stay in the pocket in the mold of a youthful Fernando Montiel or Paul Malignaggi. Will switch between pure volume punching and speed-based combinations from round to round but needs to settle on one as the fight progresses. Magdaleno has a thick upper body, which looks like it should produce more kayo power, but concentration on the next blow seems to reduce the power of the punch that is about to land. Only stopped six of 18 opponents but dispatched of the last three foes by stoppage, who were also his best opponents. That is a great sign and Magdaleno did that despite using movement and angles that do not allow him to sit down on punches. Is a converted southpaw, who?s been boxing since age of eight, and proved he can hang with bigger men sparring against Marcos Maidana. For this fight, has been sparring with 5?11″ junior welterweight Jose Benavidez, who is still probably faster than Leon. Averages five fights a year and early in his career, passed a big test by outboxing Brazilian power-puncher prospect Josenilson Dos Santos. Consistently weighs 130 pounds but muscular physique could cause weight issues in the future. Reportedly a gym rat, when Magdaleno steps into a ring, he does in everything in high gear.
Verdict – Magdaleno throws punches from the opening second to the final bell, which will not give Leon a place in the ring that is secure. The volume and the sharp angles Magdaleno uses rob Leon of his size advantage and will tie up Leon?s usually stationary legs. This is a good test of Magdaleno?s accuracy and how he goes about taking apart an experienced veteran. Because of his advantage in speed, Magdaleno will start and finish 90% of the engagements and only occasionally get hit backing out of exchanges. With Leon lacking the power to get Magdaleno?s respect, I could see a cuts or swelling-induced stoppage for Magdaleno. The younger man can also stay on the inside and work combinations because of his upper body bulk. I will pick Leon to last the distance but not win a round in doing so. Magdaleno by scores of 99-91 on all three scorecards, thanks to a late pity round.
Prediction record for 2011: 85% (70-12) Prediction record for 2010: 85% (218-40)
