WHEN Amir Khan?s April 16 WBA title defence against European champion Paul McCloskey was formally announced on Saturday, I immediately asked around 2,000 Facebook friends if any of their number would be willing to predict a victory for the Dungiven challenger. In fairness two men took up the mantle but both were partisan Irishmen, one of whom qualified his assertion with a concession that patriotic pride had played into his reasoning.
As anyone who has written a preview will affirm, one?s mind can swing back and forth several times between when a contest is first confirmed and the last days before the showdown. Right now, I am far more sceptic than believer regarding the chances of an upset, yet I am still able to highlight four factors which may just begin to build the case for a McCloskey triumph.
What he?s Dun-given up
A challenger?s attitude is often defined by how little he has to lose going into his title chance, the prevailing logic prescribing a lack of fear and a willingness to take risks. In McCloskey?s case I am more heartened by how much he has yielded to make the bout happen, suggesting a fervent and sincere belief in his impending victory. By challenging a fellow-European McCloskey must give up his EBU belt and the prospect of future riches generated by a title that has already proven lucrative for him. A big ticket-seller at home and with a good WBC ranking (No. 4), Paul could have strung together significant paydays for the next few years before cashing in. While he is presumably getting a good purse for Khan ? especially considering how fraught negotiations were ? the Ulsterman has taken the more arduous road and if he were to fail, rebuilding at age 31 will not be easy. McCloskey has not so much tiptoed as leapt out of his comfort zone and that shows genuine self-belief.
Unfamiliarity breeds danger
Khan has never faced anyone like McCloskey as a pro and no amount of made-to-measure sparring partners at the Wild Card will alter that fact. Now Paul may not have met anyone approaching Khan?s level but, stylistically, the Bolton man is not especially hard to fathom. Conversely, Khan has not faced many rangy men with a dig ? and the last one knocked him out ? has taken on just three southpaws ? none in the last four years ? and has yet to meet anyone who employs McCloskey?s awkward and unique brand of upper-body movement which allows the Euro king to launch blows from myriad angles. Like Paulie Malignaggi, McCloskey has the ability to make Khan miss but, unlike the brittle-handed New Yorker, also possesses the power to make him pay, especially if Amir is unable to anticipate where the shots are coming from.
Overlooked and underrated
Khan already has his post-MEN Arena fight lined up – July 30, probably at LA?s Staples Center and possibly against Timothy Bradley. That the McCloskey fight is seen as a mere warm-up for that ? HBO will not broadcast the bout live in the States ? and Team Khan were relaxed about their lack of April opponent 10 weeks before the show suggests the possibility that Amir?s next opponent is being taken for granted. Khan appears to see this fight as a homecoming attraction ahead of bigger things to come and that perception could facilitate his downfall. For McCloskey this is the biggest night of his career.
The Freddie Factor
Khan works with probably the best trainer in the world but with that coup comes the problem of competition. The premier coach has lots of fighters vying for his attention and even Khan ? Olympic silver medallist and once-beaten pro world champion ? is not the gym star. Amir?s stablemate Manny Pacquiao is for most pundits the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet and the Filipino marvel just so happens to have his own contest ? against Shane Mosley ? only three weeks after Khan-McCloskey. Now there is a benefit in that for the Brit ? he can train alongside the super-dedicated Pacman ? but where are Roach?s priorities likely to lie? In Khan’s ?warm-up? against a guy Roach had probably never seen before a month ago or in Pacquiao-Mosley, potentially a mismatch but a huge attraction in the US regardless and involving his and the world?s No. 1 boxer? Pacquiao will likely get more one-on-one time and that, added to the recent departure of conditioning coach Alex Ariza, may hurt Khan. With Pacquiao-Mosley three weeks away Roach will have to break from a serious stage in Manny?s camp to be in Khan?s corner. One would expect him to do so but nothing is set in stone.
So if you forced me to make a prediction as things stand I would still pick Khan, with relative security. But it’s amazing how easy it is to think of reasons McCloskey can win when you put your mind to it. Rest assured this underdog is live. And kicking. Until next time…
