Today I wrap up my predictions for 2011, delivering the final installment of a three-part preview covering every division. I am looking forward to a fresh new year whose early schedule promises to continue boxing?s strong finish in 2010. The closing segment presents an overview from middleweight to heavyweight, revealing my choices for a champion that will stay, a champion that will go, and a prospect to keep an eye on. The titlists from the IBF, WBA, WBC, and WBO were considered when selecting the champions who I believe will keep or lose their belts. As an aside, only the sanctioning bodies? real champions are considered, so do not expect to see interim, silver, or regular champs that the alphabet bandits elevated to make extra money considered. The one limitation I have for selecting the boxer to watch out for in 2011 is that the man chosen must not have had a world title opportunity yet.
MIDDLEWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Dmitry Pirog ? No European boxer made a bigger debut splash on the American boxing scene in 2010, despite his fantastic kayo of Daniel Jacobs playing to a limited PPV audience. However, it will be hard for the Russian to capitalize on kicking the door to the American market down, already evident in his five-month absence from the ring. HBO and Showtime don?t have a proper opponent to feature Pirog, since most qualified middleweights are unknown Europeans and not marketable to American audiences. Thus, Pirog is left to defend his title against number one challenger Gennady Martirosyan and hope previously-beaten Kelly Pavlik and Paul Williams return to middleweight to capture an HBO date. Otherwise, he beats three or four quality but nondescript opponents who mature Pirog into a force that can challenge Sergio Martinez in 2012.
Champion who will go: Sebastian Sylvester ? The German is a tough-as-nails overachiever, who has to be selected in this spot because his skill set is just not as expansive as the other champions. That is not to say Sylvester is without talent or merit. He was a very good amateur, two-time German champion who fought on the national team, winning despite his relatively small 5?7? stature and has been rated by The Ring magazine for 281 consecutive weeks now. Must fight off competent mandatory challenger Daniel Geale, perhaps in Australia, and then could be compelled to fight countryman Felix Sturm in a unification fight that the German audiences have been clamoring for since late 2009. That is a tough schedule for any middleweight and one the 30-year-old is not likely to emerge from with his title. Plus, physical guys like Sylvester can get old overnight. Thus I am playing the odds and picking this active champ.
Will rise in 2011: Gennady Golovkin ? German-based Kazakhstani has vast amateur experience to call upon, catching people?s attention back to 2000 when he captured the world junior championships. Won the world amateur title outright in 2003 and fell just short with an Olympic silver medal, besting American Andre Dirrell in the semi-finals. Other names on his amateur r?sum? include a stoppage victory over Lucian Bute and current hot prospects Matt Korobov, Yordanis Despaigne and Andy Lee were all soundly beaten. Intelligently breaks down opponents, Chavezesque in its precision, and at age 28, Golovkin is in a physical prime that correlates with his mental improvements. Has knocked out 17 of 20 opponents but has yet to be tested by a top ten-quality middleweight. Has been a professional four years now and is ready to make the leap into the big time. Reports out of Europe state Golovkin will face French-based Cameroonian Hassan N?Dam N?Jikam (my second choice), with an outside shot at a fight with champion Felix Sturm possible for late 2011. That is a tough potential schedule for me to pick against but is a reflection of the confidence I have in this potential middleweight star.
SUPER MIDDLEWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Lucian Bute ? Because Bute is not part of Showtime?s fantastic-but-flawed ?Super Six? tourney, he will not have as challenging a schedule to navigate as other elite 168-pounders. Eminently beatable Jean Paul Mendy is his number one challenger and the rest of the IBF?s top ten is just as weak as their number one representative. Only Andre Dirrell stands out as a threat; his injury (his advisors claim Dirrell might have suffered neurological damage in the Arthur Abraham fight) might not allow the American standout to fight in 2011? Even if Dirrell has a miraculous recovery and is medically approved to fight, should Showtime (who Bute is under contract with) reward Dirrell with such an opportunity? Remember, Dirrell dropped out of the ?Super Six? tourney under suspicious circumstance, just as he was to fight his best friend and superior boxer Andre Ward. Frankly, Dirrell?s team looked self-serving and inept in Showtime?s ?Fight Camp 360?? series, sullying their good fighter?s reputation. All that aside, Bute is too good to lose to anyone but Andre Ward and Carl Froch and will not fight either until 2012.
Champion who will go: Carl Froch ? Dammit, I do not want to pick one of my favorite boxers in this spot! Over the past two years, Froch has not only proven himself a great boxer but also a mentally superior competitor, bouncing back from a controversial loss to deliver one of the most impressive victories of 2010 with a dominating win over Arthur Abraham. I am making this choice because of the schedule Froch faces, not because of any perceived weakness in the Englishman. Froch is certain to face Glen Johnson next and unless Arthur Abraham upsets Andre Ward, the American speedster is Froch?s other foe for 2011. Style-wise, Ward is the exact type of boxer that gives Froch problems, an elusive speedster who uses his feet and angles to avoid the kind of brawl Froch likes to inflict on opponents. In the final, Froch is likely to fight in America as well. Yes, Froch showed excellent boxing abilities against Abraham but did not have to deal with more than one punch at a time. It saddens me to say but Froch will have to rebuild and win another title at light heavyweight in 2012.
Will rise in 2011: Edwin Rodriguez ? It?s been a while since New England created a world champion but ?La Bomba? is on the right track mentally and physically. The Worcester native has gotten to know what it takes to be a champion by traveling to England as lead sparring partner for Carl Froch and completed a stint as a sparring partner for top ten-rated Daniel Geale in Australia. That is invaluable experience for a maturing fighter and both men complimented Rodriguez on his training camp performance in post-fight comments. Dominican-born puncher came to America at age 13 and began boxing late at age 16. Made a name for himself by winning the 2005 USA Boxing Nationals and followed it up with a 2006 National Golden Gloves tourney title. The first fighter from Massachusetts to win the USA Nationals since Marvin Hagler in 1973 and lists other local legend Rocky Marciano as his favorite fighter. Even in the amateurs, his big punch featured prominently, ending with an 84-9 record and earning the nickname of ?La Bomba? (?The Bomb?). 25-year-old has a puncher?s reputation but has developed into a better all-around boxer under the guidance of Peter Manfredo Sr. and aided his career by signing with Lou DiBella. Has all the tools, physically, with a solid upper body and long arms and is a big chess player like Lennox Lewis. Although that is not seen in his sometimes over-aggressive ring demeanor and I like that Rodriguez performs best when the bright lights of TV are upon him. Rodriguez beats out English Olympic gold medalist James DeGale, Peter Quillin, Fernando Guerrero, and Maxim Vlasov.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Tavoris Cloud ? I picked Cloud as the boxer who would rise in 2010 and last year?s win over Glen Johnson confirmed my confidence in him. In fact, I think Cloud is the best light heavyweight in the world and would pick him to defeat anyone from ageless Bernard Hopkins to rebounding Chad Dawson in succession. At 28, Cloud is both youthful and ambitious and only Don King?s lack of TV dates is keeping Cloud from achieving his goals. I still believe in King as a promoter and the Hall of Famer will keep Cloud on the winning path. However, the lack of television air time King provides his young boxers is criminal. Because Cloud beat back Glen Johnson, he has no mandatory challenger and aside from a tricky Gabriel Campillo, no one in the IBF top ten is on Cloud?s level. 2011 is not about Cloud keeping his title- he will- it is about his promoter getting a big name like Dawson, Pascal, or Hopkins to accept Cloud?s challenge.
Champion who will go: Jurgen Br?hmer ? The troubled German southpaw was once proclaimed as a ?once in a generation? boxer by his promoter but severely under-delivered on those words. It is hard to live up to that kind of hype and Br?hmer was once a fantastic boxer who won 95 of 100 fights as an amateur. Won a world championship stopping Ricky Hatton and beating Carl Froch and Felix Sturm along the way. Br?hmer simply wasted his prime years partying, serving two separate stints in jail for robbery and assault. To his credit, Br?hmer seems to have rebounded personally but never reached his potential in the ring, losing to Mario Veit and Hugo Garay in title challenges. Is scheduled to fight Beibut Shumenov this week in a title unification match but has to travel to the hostile environs of Kazakhstan for that opportunity. I doubt Br?hmer escapes with his title but do not think it impossible either, given his current run of form. Even if Br?hmer does beat Shumenov, he is likely to accept big money to defend both titles against former undefeated champion Zsolt Erdei, who is well-liked in Germany. Perhaps in his missed prime, Br?hmer could have pulled off that double but not at the party-weakened age of 32.
Will rise in 2011: Ismayl Syllakh ? A couple years ago, I lamented the weakness of up-and-coming stars at 175 pounds; now there is an excess of talent with Nathan Cleverly, Luis Garcia, and Yordanis Despaigne edged at the tape by ?The Black Russian.? The lanky Ukrainian, whose father is from Sierra Leone, started boxing at age seven and won a gold medal in the under-17 world championships. A silver medal at the full world amateur championships followed and Syllakh ended his unpaid career with an impressive 302-16 record. Syllakh moved his base of operations to Los Angeles for an undefeated run in the pros but signing with Roy Jones? promotional company, Square Ring, has slowed his rise. Unfortunately, since he is promoted by an American firm, Syllakh?s opposition has not been tough, which has played a role in 12 stoppages over 14 fights. Even given that dominance, it surprised most when Syllakh only needed two rounds to blast out Daniel Judah in his first step up. Ukrainian boxers have a reputation for a calculating style and Syllakh falls into this category. He is a tactical fighter; everything works off a jab which is straight and hard, whose form is picture-perfect as if he were posing while throwing punches. Uses every punch in the book and the compactness and trajectories are designed to make impact from minimal distances. Fights fellow young gun Yordanis Despaigne in March on ESPN2?s ?Friday Night Fights,? which will validate or disprove my selection of Syllakh over the talented Cuban.
CRUISERWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Krzysztof Wlodarczyk ? There is talk of a cruiserweight tourney, promoted in Germany like Showtime?s ?SuperSix? 168 pounds tournament, that puts every champion?s title reign in jeopardy. The main reason I chose Wlodarczyk is that he is the least attractive champion for television with few storylines, who fights almost exclusively in Poland. He is a talented boxer-puncher as well, who is undefeated in three years since splitting a pair of close contests with Steve Cunningham. Fights his mandatory in April, 33-year-old converted basketball player Francisco Palacios, which takes up nearly half the year and is not likely to face any other champion to round out 2012. Could be matched with Alexander Frenkel, who viciously knocked out Enzo Maccarinelli, in the first round of the proposed tourney. That is a tough but winnable proposition. If the tourney does not take place and Wlodarczyk continues to fight in Poland, this is as safe a pick as there is in the ultra competitive cruiserweight class.
Champion who will go: Guillermo Jones ? I keep picking against the 38-year-old Panamanian, mostly because he fights less than the Swiss army, and he somehow continues to retain his title. Was inexplicably allowed to keep his title, when other boxers are stripped for facing fellow titleholders, despite a 25-month ring absence that did not involve injury! Just defeated number one challenger Valery Brudov (who grew old waiting for the title shot) and had average Frenchman Steve Herelius elevated to number one challenger. However, former Cuban standout Yoan Hernandez has the promotional pull and financial backing to cut in line this year and take the title. I give Jones all the credit in the world for winning, despite age and size disadvantages, when he does fight?but Jones? luck has to run out in 2011?please?
Will rise in 2011: Yoan Pablo Hernandez – Did not do as well as other Cubans in international competitions, losing in his one Olympic appearance (2004) in the second round. Unlike his peers, Hernandez has not been able to avoid a loss in the face of tough matchmaking. Is currently 23-1, with 12 kayos, and is on a good run of form, beating borderline top ten guys Enad Licina and Mohamed Azzaoui. Hernandez did not fare well in the amateurs because he was shrinking down to an unnatural weight, moving from heavyweight to 175 pounds in a less than a year had to hurt his body. The 6?4? southpaw has world-class trainer Ulli Wegner, who trained Sven Ottke and Arthur Abraham, working with him and at 26, should be coming into his own, physically. He is a busy puncher but not overly powerful despite good physical proportions. His loss came against former champion Wayne Braithwaite, where Hernandez got too comfortable after knocking Braithwaite down in the first round. Braithwaite caught Hernandez flush with a hook and then defeated him on the three knockdown rule, while Hernandez was on his feet. Hernandez was also knocked out in the amateurs by countryman and current stablemate Odlanier Solis, so his chin has questions. Seems to have rebounded from the loss and if Hernandez has learned from it, there is no reason he cannot win a title like the reputedly weak-chinned David Haye did in recent division history.
HEAVYWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Vitali Klitschko ? Given Vitali?s overall r?sum?, I rate him ahead of brother Wladimir as the best heavyweight in the world today and in terms of historical legacy. Despite his size, fights with intelligence over brawn and, in two setbacks, was ahead on the judges? scorecards (losing via cut and injury) and, in many people?s views, on his way to victory when the fights were stopped. The Ukrainian giant always arrives at fights in optimum mental and physical condition, a rarity in today?s heavyweight scene. Because of Klitschko?s size (6?7?? and 250 pounds), he is hard to hit cleanly and almost impossible to counter with a hook because of his dimensions. With one of his giant steps backward, Vitali is out of punching range and opponents find themselves off-balance, attempting to land more than one punch at a time. An underrated technician, landing pinpoint jabs and lead right hands in the middle of the ring but never in a rotation that leads into a detectable pattern for opponents to pick up on. Former Cuban standout Odlanier Solis, who fights out of Germany, is his mandatory contender and, on paper, represents a credible threat. However, I simply do not believe any heavyweight can beat Vitali even at his advanced age of 39.
Champion who will go: David Haye ? One way or another, Haye loses his title this year. If Haye keeps his promise of fighting one of the Klitschkos, he loses the title in the ring. If Haye honors his words, made after the Audley Harrison fight, to retire this October before he turns 31, this pick still counts, since he will have forfeited the title. I know better than to take a boxer?s pronouncement of retirement seriously but usually they keep their words for six months?which still fits into the 2011 time frame of this feature.
Will rise in 2011: Kubrat Pulev ? No one should be shocked that I did not choose an American in this spot and only Seth Williams was even on my long-range radar screen. Fact is, the heavyweight division is dominated by Europeans and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. Probably, even for the rest of the decade. Like most Eastern Europeans, Pulev was an outstanding amateur (beating and losing to Odlanier Solis), competing and medaling in every major international tourney, including the world championships and Olympics. The 6?4? Bulgarian, nicknamed ?The Cobra,? has beaten one-time American prospect Dominick Guinn and former Olympic Bronze medalist and European champion Paolo Vidoz before his tenth pro fight. In only his fifth fight, knocked out English banger Matt Skelton and a Gbenga Oloukun, who upset Lamon Brewster in his previous bout. He has done this in a 15-month span and from footage I have viewed, could only find one or two rounds he lost. At the beginning of each round, seemingly chooses to lead or counterpunch, looking equally comfortable in each scenario. Is a calm and calculating combination puncher, displaying excellent hand speed for a big man while remaining surprisingly nimble on defense at the same time. Right hand is weapon of choice when Pulev wants to get the attention of his opponent but will win fights at the highest level through an accumulation of punches vice one-shot power. Is not particularly muscular but you can tell there is power underneath a healthy bulk (not flab) that is centralized on and around his shoulders and torso. Pulev was chosen over a more accomplished Robert Helenius, in the professional ranks, because of his versatility and ability to react better to an opponent?s style vice forcing his on others. Mike Perez and Tyson Fury might be sexier picks but lack the fundamental soundness and overall athletic ability of Pulev.
