It?s time for a yearly ritual that, unfortunately for me, borders on self-abuse this time around. Visitors to boxing websites are sure to notice how easy it is for writers to make predictions at this time of the year, certain in the knowledge that few will remember what they wrote a year from now. Here at Maxboxing, we have higher standards and are held accountable for what is written. With those thoughts in mind, I venture back in time to review my predictions for the previous year. Take a look around the ?Net; I don?t think you will find another website or publication doing the same. A shame really, since journalists should be like the boxers we cover and learn from past mistakes while expounding on positives. That being said, 2010 was a dreadful year for boxing and, as it turns out, my psychic abilities.
In the 2010 preview review, I revisit my predictions in every weight class for a champion who will stay, a champion who will go, and a boxer to watch out for. I do not make any changes to the predictions from last year, thus removing any temptation to make myself look better through the removal of erroneous or irrelevant content. That forces me to separate this feature into three parts in order to keep the word count below that of an Alexander Dumas novel. At the end of each prediction, I apply a simple grade, from A to F, along with an opinion on how the prognostication turned out.
STRAWWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Oleydong Sithsanercha
What I said: An active champ, four fights in 2009, Sithsanerchai should make two defenses along with two gimme keep-busy bouts again this year. In November, retained his title with a close decision over top contender Juan Palacios, which had to help the 24-year-old mature as a boxer. Took the title from Eagle Kyowa, one of the more talented strawweights of the last ten years, impressing with sharp punching and nimbleness. Unlike many Thai champions, Sithsanerchai does not rely on brute strength or incessant pressure, the tiny Thai has a diversity of skills to retain the title, no matter the opposition put before him. Also has the advantage of fighting out of his homeland and Sithsanerchai comes at challengers from a southpaw stance. Number one challenger Yasutaka Kuroki is no slouch but is beatable for someone of Sithsanerchai?s talent. That fight could be intriguing if it happens in Japan, since Sithsanerchai has never fought on foreign soil.
Grade- B+: Sithsanercha is still the champion, though he struggled to a majority draw in his last title defense against a beatable foe. The Thai only won by one and two points (on two cards and was knocked down in round 11) in his other defense this year. However, that win came away in Japan and challenger Yasutaka Kuroki was a legit top-ten challenger. Because of the closeness of both bouts, I give myself a B+ instead of a solid A, perhaps judging myself on a harder curve than need be.
Champion who will go: Raul Garcia
What I said: It is not that I do not like or appreciate the unbeaten Garcia but two other champions at this weight (Sithsanerchai and Roman Gonzalez) are just more impressive. I do believe Filipino Donnie Nietes is not as talented as Garcia but I picked Garcia because his mandatory contender is talented South African Nkosinathi Joyi (more on him below). When choosing a champion who will go, more than mere talent has to be evaluated. Much depends on circumstance, like the list of potential opponents, recent form, or, in lower weight classes, the ability to maintain weight. It is in the potential opponents? category that this Mexican southpaw suffers. Garcia might travel to Asia for a title defense as well, which is never an easy proposition. So it is with trepidation, and not based on talent, that I chose Garcia over an inferior Nietes.
Grade- A: Garcia lost the title in his first defense of the year, suffering a lopsided loss to Nkosinathi Joyi, where it was hard to find a round to score for the difficult Mexican southpaw. As I expected, Garcia rebounded well to win his next two fights and even an interim version of the WBO title.
Will rise in 2010: Nkosinathi Joyi
What I said: I debated about whether to select Joyi and it had nothing to do with talent. He is the IBO champion and sometimes that can interfere with a title shot with the big four sanctioning bodies. But Joyi won an IBF eliminator in his last fight, which is a good indication he will get a title shot this year. I currently rate Joyi, 20-0 (15), as the fourth best strawweight and his style would entice me to pick him to beat all but Sithsanerchai, with a good degree of confidence. At 26, the South African is in his prime but he needs to fight more often. In the last two years, Joyi has only fought three times and that is no way to prepare for a title shot against a good champion like Garcia. His last three bouts were against quality opposition and he comprehensively defeated all three. Only fought once in 2009, a dominant 12-round decision over Florante Condes in June, and should take one tune-up bout before entering a title bout. It?s a shame he has not fought more often, since Joyi is a real joy to watch in the ring.
Grade- A+: Not only did Joyi win the IBF title but he is now rated the number one strawweight by The Ring magazine. Again, the one big concern I have with Joyi is that he only fought once in 2010 and 2009, thus wasting his prime and not building a fan base worthy of his talent.
JUNIOR FLYWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Ivan Calderon
What I said: The Puerto Rican slickster is the Joe Calzaghe of the lighter weights, a man who has been overlooked and underappreciated for nearly a decade. Outside of Floyd Mayweather Jr., no one has flashed so many pure boxing skills; inside the ropes, there is nothing Calderon cannot do. Well, yeah, there is one thing…he can?t knock people out. But his skills frustrate opponents to the extent that he does not need a finishing touch with his fists, since his opponents are kayoed mentally by mid-fight. The only chink in Calderon?s armor is that a kayo is not likely if he were to need it late in a fight. As the biggest payday at junior flyweight, he will attract excellent challengers and because he is in the later stages of his career, this could be a dangerous pick. However, his skills are so superior that I cannot use conventional wisdom to judge him. Calderon is that good and he is putting up Hall of Fame numbers.
Grade- D: A failing grade is in order since Calderon was dethroned by red-hot Giovani Segura but the letter F should never be associated with Calderon either. As I stated in the preview, picking an aging champion looking for big fights to end his career can be risky and it cost me in this case.
Champion who will go: Rodel Mayol
What I said: A rematch with Edgar Sosa is virtually ensured, given the way Mayol took the title with the aid of a controversial headbutt, which obviously put Sosa on Queer Street. The lack of a world-class chin has prevented him from breaking through against world-class opposition. Mayol has a good mix of speed and power but prefers to use his power to move straight at opponents. This despite a very good amateur career (a five-time national champion), which grounded him with an accurate but underutilized jab. Might have had his best performance in a loss for an alphabet title against Eagle Kyowa, repeatedly rocking the champion before faltering in the late rounds to lose a split decision. That fight might have taken a lot out of Mayol and he lost two of his next three fights via stoppage (to very good opponents). At 28, is near his physical prime but even if Mayol does not have to fight Sosa, his mandatory is tough Omar Nino.
Grade- A: The Filipino engaged in a pair of tough fights with Omar Nino, losing his title in the second fight after their first bout ended in a technical draw. In the initial fight, Nino hit Mayol while he was down and that controversial ending merited a rematch, given the tenacity of the three rounds. The ensuing bout was much less dramatic, with Nino scoring a clear decision victory. Mayol won his comeback fight and should still be considered a threat at the world level.
Will rise in 2010: Johnriel Casimero
What I said: This pick came down to Casimero and the equally qualified Milan Melindo but I chose Casimero because he has a bit more size and a lot more punch. The 19-year-old just wowed Nicaraguans by dominating battle-tested Cesar Canchila (knocked him down five times) and knocking out the hometown favorite in the 11th round. Is currently 14-0 but the way he traveled into hostile territory really provides positive insight into his psyche and overall boxing ability. Other than Canchila, has only faced middling opposition but Casimero is a former national amateur champ and has been boxing since age 12. Says he usually trains down from 125 pounds and looking at his chest and thick legs, that seems accurate. While he is an offensive force, Casimero will need to tighten up his defense with head movement to start. That should not be a big problem since most reports tout Casimero as a gym rat. Let?s hope this win does not give Casimero a big head, as Marvin Sonsona got, and that he continues to improve.
Grade- C+: I thought about giving myself a B- since Casimero engaged in an interim title fight, losing a close split decision to a Ring magazine top-ten ranked boxer in Ramon Hirales. However, it was Casimero?s only fight of the year, so I count that lack of activity as an additional demerit. Overall, I consider it a learning experience for him, since Casmiero lost on the road in Mexico and he is still only 20 years old.
FLYWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Koki Kameda
What I said: Colorful, brash, outspoken, and possessed of an arrogance that is on constant display in or out of the ring. Koki Kameda embodies everything Japanese culture reviles; think of Kameda as a Naseem Hamed persona on steroids. Kameda?s most recent title winning performance drew an incredible 50-percent of the nation?s television audience and he has garnered near-Muhammad Ali-like admiration and vilification. Is only 23 years old and has some potentially attractive matchups in the future. Koki and his brother Daki have no regulators on their mouths but could conversely be commended for stating what they believe, damn the consequences. Koki?s attacks in the ring match his rhetoric outside it, a hyper-aggressive, full-speed-ahead power-puncher with little regard for safety. Just won the title from Daisuke Naito, who some thought was the second best flyweight in the world. Should have two easy defenses in 2010 and perhaps a rematch with Naito at the end of the year. A rematch is no sure thing for Kameda but the odds of his retaining the title are slightly better than those of Omar Narvaez and Moruti Mthalene, given Koki?s youth and skills.
Grade- D: Did not see a fight against Hall of Fame-worthy Pongsaklek Wonjongkam materializing this year, which Kameda ended up losing via a correctly scored majority decision. To be honest, I would have picked Kameda to win that fight anyhow, had I known. Since Kameda?s loss was close, I am giving myself a D instead of F. Still failing but to a lesser degree.
Champion who will go: Denkaosan Kaovichit
What I said: The 33-year-old Thai looks to be fading, engaging in two fights in 2009, winning one by split and the other by majority decision. Granted, both fights were against quality opposition but Kaovichit has only had one convincing victory over a top-flight opponent and relies on speed more than power. That is not good for a boxer like Kaovichit, who likes to counter and fire accurate punches in holes left open by taller opponents. Not as strong as his physique indicates but does maximize his size by going to the body consistently and putting forth a good work rate. Is scheduled to fight cocky Daki Kameda next, a tough chore, since the fight is in Japan. However, given Daki?s negative image with fans, Kaovichit might have substantial support from Japanese fans. If he gets by that test, Panamanian Luis Concepcion lurks but the Panamanian has yet to test himself with a road fight. I am playing the odds and going against an older fighter in a division that has traditionally been rough on the aged.
Grade- A+: Lost twice in a surprisingly active year and was knocked out in one round by Luis Concepcion two months ago. I expected the loss to Kameda and, like many Thai boxers, Kaovichit is a weak road fighter, suffering his stoppage loss in Panama. At age 34, with average power and slowing reflexes, Kaovichit is no longer a title threat.
Will rise in 2010: Zolani Tete
What I said: Beats out fellow southpaw Cesar Seda on the strength of his power and a win over fellow South African prospect Xolani Ntese in 2008. He is 22 years old and handled a good mix of styles in his 12 victories. A speedster with good pop on his punches, Tete showed impressive stamina in going the 12-round distance against former gym mate Ntese. One big concern is that Tete reportedly had an ?epileptic fit and convulsions? during a run but recovered fully and knocked out former African Boxing Union champ Francis Miyeyusho a couple months later. Any hint of frailty that attack might have should be assuaged by two devastating first-round kayo wins in 2009. Tete is rated in the IBF and WBO?s top ten but I think he will be avoided by their champions until he becomes a mandatory. Tete?s blend of speed, power, and ring charisma make him impossible to overlook for the long haul.
Grade- F+: I should have went with Cesar Seda, since Tete was stopped in five rounds by countryman Moruti Mthalane in a challenge for the IBF title. Gets the plus at the end of the grade for defeating Filipino speedster Richard Garcia to start the year. I can?t call the Mthalane setback a fluke but refuse to discount Tete down the road, given his mesmerizing performances in 2009.
JUNIOR BANTAMWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Simphiwe Nongqayi
What I said: Why do I pick a fighter I know little about over an established star like Vic Darchinyan? One reason is that Nongqayi is not likely to fight Darchinyan; secondly, the list of challengers for Nongqayi will not be as treacherous as that of Darchinyan?if Darchinyan even stays at junior bantamweight. There is no other choice, given that Darchinyan holds the WBA and IBF titles and the WBO has not filled their vacancy. Simphiwe Nongqayi is not without talent, impressing me by traveling to Mexico to defeat the Arce brothers in succession. Came to the pros really late; reports have him age 34 all the way up to 37 but his body seems well-preserved and Nongqayi has an extensive amateur career. Likes to use his height and counterpunch but showed in both Arce fights that he can get in the trenches when he has to. Also displayed maturity and courage by getting up from a hard knockdown against Argentine Julio Ler, in the third round, and boxing his way to a wide points win. Has been fighting good opposition since 2006 but does not fight often enough (currently 16-0). Because he started so late, Nongqayi will always be one of those ?might have been? guys who you wished had done more with his career.
Grade- F: A solid F, given Nongqayi?s away draw, in France, to a good but beatable Malik Bouziane and subsequent beatdown at the hands of the powerful but ordinary Juan Rosas. Nongqayi seems to have lost his skills or drive almost overnight and, with his age and physically taxing style, I doubt a second chance is coming. Will make a mental note to myself to stop backing aging fighters for the 2011 preview, which has cost me here and with Ivan Calderon.
Champion who will go: Vic Darchinyan
What I said: With the WBO title vacant and Darchinyan holding the WBA and IBF titles, I did not have much choice. Plus there is still the chance Darchinyan simply leaves the division in search of bigger game again. At age 33, where weight can creep up on you, that becomes more of a possibility out of necessity as well. A rematch with Nonito Donaire is also a real possibility. Darchinyan?s power remains intact, as evidenced in his last fight against Tomas Rojas, and his underrated boxing skills will give many the false security Cristian Mijares entered the ring with. Darchinyan will also face a much higher caliber of foe than Nongqayi, given that he fights on Showtime and is in search of big paydays. I hate to make this pick but logic says to play the odds.
Grade- A-: Had to wait to the last minute for this one, 20 days to spare, and I give myself an A minus because Darchinyan?s loss took place at bantamweight. Did defend his title against Rodrigo Guerrero early in the year but Darchinyan will be judged by big challenges at this stage of his career. It would be a wise move for Darchinyan to go back down to junior bantamweight after facing Yonnhy Perez early next year.
Will rise in 2010: Muvhuso Nedzanani
What I said: Gotta love a guy who goes by the moniker ?Hands of Thunder,? although that is misleading given that his kayo ratio is at just 50%. Nedzanani has faced good international competition since 2007, from Philippines to South America, and, like other African boxers, has not put in enough ring time. Only fought three times over the last three years but when he does step between the ropes, he dazzles with speed and combination punching. Made seven defenses of his national title before accepting a lowly WBF belt. Has now jumped on the WBO bandwagon to gain a regional title. I hope the move to the WBO means Nedzanani is ready to jump to the big time and, at age 26, this would seem an ideal time. Began his career with three draws and a loss but showed good mental toughness by putting things together and avoiding any other setbacks. Has good size for the division but from reports I have read, Nedzanani needs to remain more focused once he has an opponent demoralized. Did well handling aggressive Marvin Tampus and his trademark right hand landed consistently off his back foot.
Grade- C: The appropriate grade would be an incomplete, since Nedzanani did not fight at all this year. For the life of me, I don?t know why but do know he was injured in a car accident (suffering broken ribs) in September of 2009. Logic dictates he should have returned from that by now. Reportedly, Nedzanani signed with a new promoter in 2010, so perhaps lawsuits kept him out of the ring. Inactivity seems to be the curse of South African boxers and another factor I will have to keep a watchful eye out for in my 2011 preview.
BANTAMWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Yonnhy Perez
What I said: The Colombian impressed me in a non-stop war with Ghanaian strongman Joseph Agbeko and before that, traveling to South Africa to dispatch of Silence Mabuza. Only won a title in his last fight, but Perez is much more mature than his 20 bouts indicate, having competed in over 240 amateur bouts. Fights an average of four times a year against solid competition and defeated the red-hot Agbeko to do it. Is 30 years old, serving a four-year stint in the Colombian army, but anyone who saw his punch volume and chin against Agbeko knows not to question his physical preparations. Big for this weight as well, with broad shoulders and real power, and was in no way intimidated by imposing foes in his last two outings. This is a risky pick since a rematch with Agbeko could happen this year but outside of Sasha Bakhtin and Abner Mares, there are no other fighters in the IBF?s top ten who can hang with this monster.
Grade- D: Damn, just as I was 20 days early for Vic Darchinyan, I only needed 20 days to escape this Yonnhy Perez loss. I was confident Perez would defeat Agbeko a second time and even mentioned Mares (with whom Perez drew) as a potential threat, not believing Mares would be pushed into a challenge of such a talented champion. All credit to Agbeko, who showed versatility I did not believe he had. I did not give myself an F, since Agbeko is such a credible foe and, as such, inflicted a forgivable loss.
Champion who will go: Fernando Montiel
What I said: I refer to Montiel as the reverse Barrera, a slick boxer who has morphed into an exciting kayo machine late in his career. This stylist has not faced a mediocre opponent since 2004 and only suffered one arguable setback against the elite Mark Johnson back in 2003. Montiel is the closest Mexico has come to replicating Miguel Canto but ditched defensively sound tactics in favor of a fan-friendly action style. The results have been great for fans – five kayos in his last seven fights – but the 30-year-old has had to absorb punishment in return. A technically sound boxer/puncher in the Ricardo Lopez mold, his superior skill set has allowed Montiel to deal with a decline in hand speed. Montiel has never been outclassed, even in close losses to Jhonny Gonzalez and Mark Johnson, but he will have to face some good opposition this year after dealing with the overrated prospect Ciso Morales in February. I hate to pick against someone as fun as Montiel, but it is that recent fun factor that will be his undoing against some big bangers coming up at bantamweight.
Grade- F-: I keep doubting Montiel because he fights in a style that negates his best talents and I deserve the worst grade possible for it. Montiel scored four stunning kayos in 2010 and defended the title in Japan, putting him in my running for 2010?s ?Fighter of the Year.? My worst decision by far, no matter how sound my thought process might have been. Faces Nonito Donaire in February, just daring me to pick against him again in 2011!
Will rise in 2010: Abner Mares
What I said: A bit of a rarity among top-notch Mexican prospects since Mares was an accomplished amateur, finishing with a 112-8 record. Brought home plenty of international medals as well and ended his run in the amateurs with an Olympic appearance. The smooth boxer, with solid pop in his mitts, also has Hall of Fame trainer Ignacio Beristain in his corner. It?s a solid combination that has been working its magic en route to a 19-0 record, with the 24-year-old coasting through the standard opposition, for a prospect. Has the backing of Golden Boy Promotions, so Mares should have little trouble getting a title shot when Beristain thinks the time has come. Is comparable to Fernando Montiel, mentioned above, but carries a bit more power and much more speed at this point of his career.
Grade- A: Drew with Yonnhy Perez, in a ?Fight of the Year? candidate, but made up for that in spades by out-brawling Vic Darchinyan in another ?Fight of the Year?-type of performance. I expected a lot of Mares, and he delivered with only the draw preventing me from awarding an A+ to myself. Faces Joseph ?King Kong? Agbeko next and with a possible fight against the Montiel ? Donaire winner looming, a pound-for-pound ranking could be justified for Mares in late 2011 if he wins all his fights.
JUNIOR FEATHERWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Celestino Caballero
What I said: Is my logical choice since WBO champ Juan Manuel Lopez is moving up and Caballero owns the other two titles. However, since Caballero is likely to have a tough schedule this is no gimme. Let?s not forget how tall the 33-year-old Caballero is for this weight class, there is a possibility he could be forced to move up by his metabolism and no champion remains so through 2010.
Grade- D+: I struggled with this grade since Caballero was forced to move out of this division by the other ?champions?? refusal to face him. Moved up one weight class to defeat hot prospect Daud Yordan but unwisely went up a further weight class, suffering a close split decision loss to streaking Jason Litzau. In the end, it has to be a failing grade because Caballero both left the division and suffered a loss. I should have seen at least one coming.
Champion who will go: Toshiaki Nishioka
What I said: A solid southpaw who shocked North American boxing insiders when he got up from a first-round knockdown to kayo Jhonny Gonzalez in Mexico. Previous wins over Napapol Kiatisakchokchai and Genaro Garcia hinted at Nishioka?s talent but most thought he did not have the overall skill set to hang with a talented banger like Gonzalez. We should have known he was mentally strong by winning the WBC title in his fifth attempt and coming back from a ruptured Achilles tendon. The Japanese champ is lanky and works well behind his jab, using an upright but not rigid stance to good effect on defense. Not refined on offense but throws a lot of punches and working from a distance ensures judges see the punches land. Despite his age, 32, Nishioka probably peaked both mentally and physically in 2009. The challengers of the WBC are a weak lot, outside of Rafael Marquez, who will be busy with Israel Vazquez, but Nishioka can be confused by movement and someone like Rendall Munroe could pull the upset.
Grade- F: Turns out Munroe did not have the wherewithal to confuse or overpower Nishioka, who won a surprisingly easy decision over Munroe and also repelled the challenge of inexperienced Balweg Bangoyan. Nishioka has proven himself a solid champion and, despite his age, improves with every outing. In fact, Nishioka has not lost since 2004 and taking his entire career into account, Nishioka should not be entirely discounted from P4P consideration.
Will rise in 2010: Antonio Escalante
What I said: Edges out Puerto Ricans Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. and Victor Fonseca, as well as talented former Hungarian amateur star Zsolt Bedak (who defeated Abner Mares in the Olympics). One of the reasons, beside talent, I am picking Escalante over the others is his promotional pull with Golden Boy that can get him a title shot in 2010. The 24-year-old matured in 2009 and is riding an impressive winning streak. Excitement is the name of the game with Escalante; his loss to Mauricio Pastrana was action-packed as well and even when forced to go the distance, Escalante?s aggression does not wane. The Pastrana fight showed how the aggression of Escalante can be used against him, getting caught flush coming in for a finishing shot against an opponent he had just knocked down. It is Escalante?s only real setback following an early career loss and he seems to have learned from it, judging by the way he finished off Mike Oliver. If he continues to box within himself, Escalante has the potential to annex a title this year. I am taking a chance on Escalante?s ring maturity but have a feeling he is ready to take on elite boxers this year.
Grade- D: Engaged in a ?Fight of the Year? candidate with childhood rival Miguel Roman, which rescued Escalante from F territory, which some might suggest I give myself, since Escalante was knocked out in three one-sided rounds by the now-two-dimensional Daniel Ponce De Leon. The win and loss were not of equal worth, which is why Escalante gets a failing grade. Because Escalante is such an exciting fighter, expect to see him back on ESPN and Telefutura and back in title consideration by 2012, given his relative youth at 24 and consistent activity.
On Saturday, I?ll review my picks from the featherweight through junior middleweight divisions.
You can contact Marty at [email protected] or visit him at www.facebook.com/fivedogs
