Don?t look now boxing fans, but The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come is trudging down the street, slowed by a bag of coal flung over his shoulder.
Earlier in the week Top Rank Promotions CEO Bob Arum detailed pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao?s conceivable fight plan for 2011. The plan includes a spring battle against ?Sugar? Shane Mosley and a fall battle against the victor of a Miguel Cotto-Antonio Margarito rematch.
It was revealed later in the week that the victor of a Cotto-Margarito rematch may be Sergio Martinez.
?We?re going to, in effect, cooperate with each other for the first half of the year. Martinez is going to fight on HBO in March, and Cotto will fight Margarito,? Arum told Lem Satterfield of Boxingscene.com. ?Depending on the date of Cotto-Margarito, we may do an HBO fight involving Cotto prior to that. But the Cotto-Margarito winner would be in line to do another mega fight in the fall against Martinez for the middleweight title.?
Martinez would take a tune-up fight in the spring before taking on Margarito and Cotto.
So for 2011, in the upper echelons of contemporary boxing greatness here is our potential offering:
Pacquiao-Mosley
Martinez-Sebastian Zbik
Cotto-Margarito
Pacquiao-Cotto/Margarito
Martinez-Cotto/Margarito
Cotto-Martinez will no doubt be an exciting matchup, desired by boxing fans for its assured action and tossup of victor.
The remainder of the fights though, with the exception of untested wildcard Zbik against Martinez, have predetermined outcomes with Martinez and Pacquiao padding their resume.
All the names are recognizable, all the fights will surely make money, but that doesn?t mean they make sense.
Another year will go by without a defining fight being made.
No big surprise.
Top Rank will make money off of Paquiao and their prized fighter will remain on top of his game, taking no risks, a heavy favorite for the second straight year.
Pacquiao and Martinez will finish the year flawless but neither will make any ring progress.
Pacquiao is big enough to face Mosley, Cotto or Margarito.
Mosley, Cotto or Margarito are big enough to face Martinez.
The public, though has been convinced that Martinez is too big for Pacquiao.
If Martinez fought in the style of Cotto or Margarito this would not be the case.
Following the undramatic middleweight reign of Kelly Pavlik, we were offered something fresh with Sergio Martinez.
If this is what the middleweight championship has to offer Martinez in the next year he might consider leaving the division, at age 35 he has limited time at his peak.
Cotto or Margarito would no doubt be entertaining in fighting Martinez, both are warriors committed and believing in their respective abilities, but the fights would be anti-climactic. Martinez is too good for them at this stage in their careers.
Martinez-Pacquiao could be negotiated, bringing Martinez down to an acceptable weight for Pacquiao, but is this what Arum wants?
With the business plan above you have four potential Top Rank fights, all capable of monetary success. Martinez-Pacquiao brings the number of fights down to one, a big risk considering Martinez?s style will present Pacquiao with problems.
Pacquiao loses the fight and Top Rank loses dollar signs.
So the top in 2011 will fight lesser talent and the fans will be giving lesser fights.
Here?s to 2011: soon to be signed, sealed and delivered.
