Las Vegas, NV (Sports Network) – When Erik Morales takes on Manny Pacquiao in their January 21st rematch, there will be no chance for the kind of shock results we saw on the year’s first major fight card (when Zab Judah and Jean- Marc Mormeck lost their titles). Despite Morales’ unanimous-decision win over Pacquiao in their first fight, the second edition is a pick ‘em affair at World Sports Exchange and other online sportsbooks.
On the surface, even money seems like a surprising price on Morales, a future Hall of Famer going up against an opponent he’s already beaten, albeit in a tough, competitive fight. Evidently, Morales’ soundness is now being questioned in the wake of his recent loss to career underachiever Zahir Raheem. Were it not for that result, Morales would surely have been an odds-on favorite to repeat his performance against Pacquiao.
Instead, the betting markets have fingered Morales as a fighter in decline, dismissing several key factors working against Morales in the Raheem loss: a difficult step up in class from junior lightweight to lightweight; an awkward stylistic match up; and the usual motivational factors that come into play when a boxer faces a far-less-talented opponent.
Overlooked, however, is the fact that Raheem was exactly the kind of opponent one would expect to give Morales trouble: a speedy cutie who piles up points while avoiding danger. Pacquiao, on the other hand, is an action fighter who welcomes heated exchanges, making him an easy target for a powerful counterpuncher like Morales. In addition, Morales is back down to junior lightweight for this fight and, unlike in the Raheem fight, there is no question that Morales will be up for this scrap against a dangerous opponent.
When assessing two fighters, handicappers often look to their relative performance against a shared opponent, in this case Marco Antonio Barrera. Morales lost two out three to Barrera, though the remarkable series made legends of both fighters. Pacquiao, on the other hand, fought Barrera only once, but defeated him soundly in a major upset, taking a big lead on all cards before handing Barrera his only career KO loss. The fact that Barrera has since gone undefeated has made Pacquiao’s victory all the more impressive.
So, if Pacquiao soundly defeated Barrera, and Barrera got the better of Morales, Pacquiao should be favored over Morales, or so the theory goes. However, the transitive principle is rarely operative in boxing, where questions of style regularly outweigh those of skill. Promoters may wish you to believe otherwise, but a rematch in boxing is usually just a euphemism for a rerun. No matter how much lip service a boxer may pay to reinventing his game plan in order to avenge a loss (viz. Taylor-Hopkins II), instincts inevitably take over in the heat of the moment and fighters revert to the styles they’ve honed all their lives.
So take Morales and look for a replay of their first fight, more or less: another stirring battle in which Morales manages to control the action on his way to a points win.
01/20 09:57:34 ET
