It has been two months since our initial compilation of predictions for the Manny Pacquiao-Antonio Margarito fight and now with the most anticipated fight of the year less than a week away the predictions for the battle have better foundation and more clarity.
While styles make fights and comparing shared opponents is not always the best way to gauge a matchup, Fred Kelley of Bleacher Report does a good job of dissecting Miguel Cotto as a shared opponent of Pacquiao and Margarito.
?Both Pacquiao and Margarito stopped Cotto; however, Cotto managed to put on a boxing clinic against Margarito for the first six rounds of their bout. While Pacquiao beat Cotto in decisive fashion,? wrote Kelley.
The only chink in this analysis is the rounds that Cotto dominated against Margarito have been typical of Margarito, known to drop earlier rounds and pick up the pace later in the fight, coming on strong while his opponent is wearing down.
?Well I think that?s the way most boxing experts expected the first rounds to go,? HBO boxing commentator Emanuel Steward said in the second round of the Margarito-Cotto fight. ?Even the guys who picked Margarito. Cotto is a much better boxer, much faster, much crisper punching. But what?s going to happen after four or five rounds is the big question.?
Evan Bailey of BoxingNews 24 has taken the news from the Pacquiao camp that the training has not going as smoothly as possible and not only picks Margarito to win but Pacquiao to be decimated by the combination of a lackadaisical Pacquiao and an enraged Margarito.
?So now we head in the later rounds where the fight is on the verge of being stopped,? Bailey Wrote. ?Margarito?s in his corner laughing, joking about life after the fight, maybe a party, a club even. While you have Pacquiao in another corner begging for Roach to stop the fight. But unfortunately he?s pushed out for another round. At this point Pacquiao is almost turning it to a MMA match grappling, even trying to slam Margarito. But sadly it doesn?t work.?
A less bombastic, more technical opinion for a Margarito victory comes by way of Dave Lahr, also of BoxingNews 24 who cites the biggest reason for a Margarito upset will be Pacquiao?s eagerness to trade with Margarito. The more physical domineering Margarito, in the opinion of Lahr, will knock the Pacman out.
?He doesn?t have the size, the chin or the ability to stand and trade with a big fighter like Margarito,? Lahr wrote. ?Forget about all that nonsense about Margarito no longer having power; he can still punch like an ox, and when you get hit 100 times from him in a round, it?s going to have disastrous effects on Pacquiao?s face. When you got a little guy like Pacquiao, who used to be hitting by other little fighters, it?s going to be a shock for him to be getting pounded on by the bigger Margarito. If Miguel Cotto, a small welterweight, had been able to stand and trade with Pacquiao for 12 rounds, instead of running, he would have beaten Pacquiao to a pulp. The same thing for Oscar De La Hoya.?
Lahr?s assesment of Margarito being able to land on Pacquiao to the tune of 100 punches per round is a bit off key. Pacquiao?s speed and mobility should disarm the bombs of Margarito, from whom it is ridiculous to assume will have even close to 100 punches per round. Lahr?s analysis of Cotto seems also fairly absurd. Cotto traded with pack for the first few rounds and could not handle the Pacman?s punching power and a result backed off.
Outside of Boxing News 24, the majority of experts still maintain Pacquiao winning the fight, either by unanimous decision or stoppage.
The entire staff of ProBoxing-fans.comfavor the fight for Pacquiao.
Jake Emen gives the best analysis, tackling the reports of a poor training camp for Pacquiao.
?Just how much of the pre-fight talk about Pacquiao failing to be focused is legitimate, and how much is being sold to us so that we buy the fight?,? Eman Wrote. ?Margarito might be in the best shape of his career, but he?s never had to deal with the darting speed, or the variety and skill of an offensive attack, such as Pacquiao?s.In and out, right jab and straight left, in and out, over and over again is the pattern I expect to see. If Margarito can find a way to smother Pacquiao from the early going, he could make the fight interesting, but ultimately, I see Pacquiao as simply being far too good. Completely focused or not, Pacquiao won?t let his pound for pound status be derailed against the Tijuana Tornado.?
The editors at Boxing Dispatch stick by our decision that Margarito moving from Roberto Garcia to Manny Pacquiao will be like going from a soapbox derby to the Indianapolis 500 and we predict a knockout within 10 rounds. Margarito?s chance besides for a lucky punch relies on how Pacquiao?s conditioning holds up over the course of the fight. If Pacquiao keeps his stamina, Margarito will be shut out of the fight.
Freddie Roach said it best on the last installment of 24/7: ?He thinks he?s a tornado, the fucking real tornado is coming.?
