MOST news items predicting Manny Pacquaio finally winning his cherished dream and dogged ambition to become a member of Philippine Congress largely have been coming from the foreign press and occasional Manila-based reporters writing for national media network or outlet.
The local press has so far been divided, with most of stories favoring or disputing a victory by Manny either coming from the media bureaus of the Filipino boxing champion or from rival candidate Roy Chiongbian.
I find one apparent and disturbing non-presence of one good barometer on how Manny would fare in the elections on Monday.
As I asked Manong Hermie Rivera, why are betting men and bet takers not waging and hedging their money on who will win in the race for the lone congressional seat for the province of Sarangani?
As confident as Manny is, I have yet to come across someone from his close circle of cockfight aficionados place a bet on a Pacquiao victory with just three days to go before D-day.
Forecasting aside, here are my take on why Manny will either win or lose the election – from a voter?s perspective.
Manny will emerge victorious because the people of Sarangani are willing to take their chances with him, unlike their neighbors in General Santos. People will see the genuine intention of Manny to help and be of service to the people. Manny will win because people believe he will make up for the failures of outgoing Rep. Erwin Chiongbian ? a protest vote. And most importantly, Manny?s vast resources and enormous war chest will win over the people who will be led to believe Manny will help alleviate their poverty. Additionally, his supporters want to Manny to succeed this time.
On the other hand, Manny?s waterloo could also be his wealth. People will suspect Manny has motives other than public service the way he runs his campaign as if only the wealthy are eligible to run for public office. Manny?s perceived wrong choice of candidates running under his slate and suspect company have alienated voters who might otherwise give him a second look. Those who won?t vote for him also are likely to reason out that Manny is not cut for the job and that they want him to remain as a true boxing champion unspoiled by politics.
As an observer of the election campaign in Sarangani, I have my own views and assessments on how well or otherwise Manny and his advisers have conducted themselves.
I had a brief and fleeting conversation with Manny in December 2008 inside, of all places, the rest room of one of the bars at the East Asia Royale Hotel? before he left to train for his Ricky Hatton fight.
Manny then had already made public his intention to run.
Back then, he was still undecided whether or not he will field a full slate ? being still good friends with incumbent Sarangani Gov. Miguel Rene Dominguez.
I told him he might face some problems should he field a candidate for governor as Dominguez is very popular and ran virtually unopposed in 2007.
He shoot back at me, ?May the best man win.?
I advised him that it would be prudent for him to talk things out with Dominguez.
True enough, Manny did meet Dominguez at the latter?s residence on December 23, 2008 if I am not mistaken.
What transpired in that one-on-one meeting is a matter between the two young men.
Suffice to say, the two good friends went their separate ways. Manny is fielding a full slate with a candidate for governor who was once a political rival of one of Manny?s trusted political ally.
Manny?s provincial and mayoral candidates for the seven towns of Sarangani is a merry mix of turncoats, political rejects and people who were once implicated in a Php 45-million scam in the province.
But I guess one of Manny?s ill-advised strategies is to build his own media outlet, buying a printing press and publishing his own weekly newspaper. To boot, he also temporarily re-opened the mothballed radio station owned by GMA news network.
In doing so, he competed with the local media that otherwise would have been good allies given his popularity and the goodwill he built in becoming today?s best in the whole of boxing world.
Lately, Manny?s media camp realized that he is not winning the local media war. He stopped publishing his Abante Socsargen weekly newspaper that is all but a mouthpiece of his campaign from front to back page. His media camp should have labeled it a newsletter ? to undress all pretensions of a legitimate press. On Wednesday evening, he sent his media coordinator to buy more radio time in a leading radio station, belatedly realizing that the broadcast version of Abante Socsksargen in his own radio station is not making a dent on public opinion.
My assessment is that Manny is loosing heavily in the local media war.
Whether that will be translated into votes against him, only the electorate of Sarangani knows.
And by Monday, it will be done.
