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Prognostification: Mayweather-Mosley

It’s a sin to have a great gift and refuse to use and display it. There’s no other way to say it than it’s a sin, a disservice to humanity. True quality is so rare and difficult to observe in real time – it’s been a philosophical dead end since Plato – but when you see performance and excellence and quality it is truly moving, truly inspiring.

Floyd Mayweather has been a sinner over the last few years. No, I’m not talking about the typical vices of greed and self-reverence, I’m talking about a deeper and much more damaging moral failure; the denial of his own talent to us, the dereliction of duty as a special and gifted performer, it’s been a sin.

I’m not only speaking about his choice in opponents – whose weaknesses I believe have been overstated – I’m talking about his chronic inactivity. He has robbed us of the opportunity to see excellence made flesh; it’s a grievous crime.

He’ll have his opportunity for redemption on Saturday night. Floyd will be facing Shane Mosley, who possesses a combination of physical strength, speed, punching-power, and moral force that Floyd has never encountered before. I believe Floyd is truly great, I believe he is approaching the physical limit of man as fighting machine, a difference engine, and on Saturday night he’ll finally have the chance to show us.

Because Shane is the genuine article. He’s 38 years old but everything about him screams of defiance against his age and against those who doubt his pedigree. If Floyd is evasive and closed and protective Shane is anything but. He is so genuine in his desire and will to win it is almost heartbreaking. Shane had the potential to match Mayweather, the physical gifts, and even more than that a style that was ferocious and friendly to watch.

They call him “sugar,” and he is an African-American with handspeed so people think of him as a boxer, but he’s not. Shane is a fighter. He has so much rumble in him it can be painful to watch. He dominated the lightweight division and moved up to welterweight to take De La Hoya’s 0. But then hubris got him. He fought Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright, twice. He didn’t need to, he could have picked softer opposition, but he had that burn in him that made him want it so bad.

He has spent the latter part of his career fighting bigger men, just because he could. He did it because it was in him andhe suffered some defeats, but he has earned his place as a modern great. In his last fight against Antonio Margarito he stood up to the bully and beat him down, ripped him to bits with his speed, power, and insatiable hunger.

He’s moving because he’s human. He’s a uniquely talented physical specimen but he doesn’t always fight like that, he fights like someone who wants something. I’ve never seen a fighter’s face so clearly reflect how he is doing in a fight as Shane. If he is losing the disappointment and concern scream out; it’s heartbreaking to watch.

And Floyd, he doesn’t even seem to breath heavy in there. It is all craft and science, a difference engine. He was blessed with the physical body to be able to exact a craft impossible to master and the discipline and mental focus to do so. It’s an incredible combination of mind and body. It’s not like Shane’s deep hunger and desire, instead it is the insuperable perfection of the machine age; The man is a marvel.

But John Henry, he beat the machine. He did it through sheer muscle and humanity and by pushing a pace that iron and oil wasn’t built for.

That’s Shane’s chance. He needs to be wild and desperate and hungry, because Floyd won’t change, or if he does it will only be to become more exact and perfect, more fine and accurate. Shane needs to let his hands go and if that doesn’t work he needs to shoot his very heart from his chest. He needs to push. He has two of the great minds in boxing in his corner – Naazim Richardson and Bernard Hopkins – and he’ll need several different tactics, but the most important will be to turn pure dog in there.

Because though Floyd is a machine – fine and precise – he has been cruising in third gear. Up until this point he hasn’t had to change, but what if he does? What if he has to push and strain with that engine?

One possibility is that the engine breaks down. Maybe it wasn’t so fine after all, maybe we were all simply convinced because he was racing against a bunch of clunkers? I don’t buy it. But the other possibility is that it’ll take a while to get that gear unstuck, that it won’t come easy. That it will be a matter of pride to run in cruise control and by the time desperation is at hand there won’t be enough rounds left. Because Floyd has the capacity to do it, we know this. He has the capacity to make any fighter in the world look foolish. But when you throw only forty shots a round for half a decade what happens if you need to push it up to sixty, or seventy? What if you need to show a little dog in you?

That’s what I’m hoping to see on Saturday, it’s what I expect to see. I believe that Shane has the ability to push Floyd, to test him, and we’re going to see inside more than we ever have.

Will Shane be able to land combinations and huge power shots? No, I doubt it. But if Floyd has taken an average of one significant punch per round over the last five years I think Shane is capable of pushing that number up to four or five. Five punches a round may not sound like much, but against Floyd it would be something to see. I think he’ll rely heavily on the left hook, which he throws with speed and real force. It’s a punch that will always give him a shot to win. I think he’ll land it flush at least a couple of times, against Floyd it would be an accomplishment.

And it would push Floyd, because Mayweather he has a heavy tax. The tax that comes with excellence. Just winning a round isn’t enough when you’re that special, you have to win it special, you have to win it with class.

Wouldn’t that be something to see? To see Floyd finally at his limits, at his best against a certifiable opponent. He is accurate and beautiful to watch when he gets to work, and it’s a marvel and a gift to see.

I think he will do it. I think Floyd is prime and ready. I think this will be his statement. He won’t war with Shane, he’s too smart for that, but he’ll own the fight. Floyd has those legs that can’t be matched, that mastery and perfection. I think he’ll land at will. I see jabs and straight right hands and movement. I see caution but a refined and clear music to it. Floyd is going to hit, he’s going to test his brittle hands, because he’ll have to.

I don’t know that he’ll hurt Shane, and I don’t even know that he’ll discourage him, but I think he’ll perform. He’ll adjust and react because that’s what he was born to do, and because he had the discipline to grow into his gift. I think it’ll be something fine and special to watch.

Because there will be trouble and there will be moments of doubt. I expect it be a real fight. I see Shane genuinely winning a few rounds. Not the type of inactive, nothing rounds that Floyd lost against De La Hoya and Judah, but real rounds, rounds where he takes some hurt.

And that’s when the class will kick in. “I won’t lose,” Floyd will say, and then we’ll see it. The sacred thing called quality or excellence; that special thing that is visible to even the most casual observer.

Floyd claims to be the greatest. He won’t ever get there, but on Saturday I think he’ll show us something to remember, something moving. I think it will have been worth the wait.

Floyd Mayweather UD 12 116-112 Shane Mosley

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