CHICAGO – Judging from the 10 losses and two draws that blot his opponent’s overall record, Manny Pacquiao’s fight this Saturday night at the Staples Center in LA appears only as a quick ATM stop before he goes to the bank to cash another seven-digit paycheck.
A Pacquiao victory plus an Erik Morales conquest over Zahir Raheem on the same HBO promotion is an equation that equals PacMan versus El Terrible II, a rematch of their classic March 19 duel. In this much-anticipated fistic reprisal, Pacquiao is guaranteed of a $1.75-million purse.
On paper, Hector Velazquez sounds more like a suspect, not a prospect. He is not a legitimate contender, but a 30-year-old pretender whose name’s mention results only in a dismissive shrug among super-featherweights.
In reality, however, Velazquez bites. He has 31 KOs in 42 wins and he has a 9-1-1 record in his last 11 fights. He is unbeaten in 2005, and his last outing at the Aragon Ballroom here in Chicago last July 15 ended in six violent rounds, leaving his opponent, Trinidad Mendoza, crumpled on the canvas as though he was shot with a magnum 357.
Velazquez isn’t just an orange traffic cone harmlessly blocking Pacquiao’s route towards another Morales collision. The Mexican from Tijuana, hungry for a million-dollar payday, is a clear and present danger.
A 12-year pro, Velazquez will draw from his vast experience to stretch Pacquiao’s thin patience. He will grab, hold and cunningly steer from harm’s way, especially in the first five rounds, when PacMan’s stamina is fresh and his punches are heavy and voluminous.
For Velazquez to score an unlikely upset, patience is the key. He needs to weather Pacquiao’s early storm, wait until his foe’s gas tank leaks in the middle or late rounds, and then maliciously stalk the Pinoy from pillar to post.
Most critically, Velazquez must never, under any circumstance, engage Pacquiao in a brutal free-for-all exchange of power punches. Doing so would be like daring 355-pound Shaquille O’Neal to a steak-eating contest.
Having said all that, I pick Manny to coast in six rounds or less. And here’s why.
Manny is four years younger at 26. He has the benefit of a better corner, a better trainer, and ultimately, a better talent. Manny also has a tougher chin, a chin that has taken the best haymakers from Marco Antonio Barrera, Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales.
Manny is a half-inch shorter than the 5-foot-7 Velazquez, but both have a 67-inch reach. The big difference is that Manny is a relentlessly aggressive fighter, who throws his blows with more weight, frequency and accuracy.
And with 31 KOs in 39 triumphs, Manny is evidently the more lethal puncher.
In the final analysis, Manny’s upcoming fight achieves two goals: It makes him $750,000 richer and it keeps him sharp and focused. In other words, Velazquez is the perfect appetizer before next year’s Erik Morales feast.
E-MAILS. From Frederick of Liloan (fredrick_nittsu. com.ph): “Give me your analysis on Pacquiao vs. Velazquez.” I just did, and I hope it’s good enough for you.
From Erwin Tadena ([email protected]): “Can you request Manny to play our very own ‘Noypi’ when he enters the ring?” Too late now, Pacquiao’s choice of entrance music is a song entitled “The Champion,” the lyrics of which he recorded in collaboration with Fil-Am apl.de.ap, a member of the very popular Black Eyed Peas.
From Brent Roque Nadela ([email protected]): “Should we expect a Morales-Pacquiao II even if one of them loses this Sept. 10?” No way. A setback by either Erik or Manny will kill the appeal of their scheduled rematch.
LAST WORDS. From Manuel Trocio (bombie_trocio @yahoo.com): “I’m a junior at SWU medical school and your column really takes my mind off many exams. I consider your articles a drug with the same mechanism of action as nitrous oxide, but without the detrimental side effects.”
Thanks, Manuel, but I diagnose my write-ups differently. Here’s my second opinion:
To my fans, my columns are like the drug sodium penthotal, or more commonly known as the truth serum – it’s soothing and it induces a lot of truthful information. To my critics, reading my column is like overdosing on a psychotic pill, and in their manic-depressive rage, they all want to choke me.
