After two straight weekends of four-plus boxing events on TV, we revert to a forlorn two-act weekend featuring a single show on Friday and Saturday night. Worse yet, fans will need to fork over PPV money to watch the Saturday night fare. It’s not all negative though; the matchups are attractive on both the ESPN and PPV card, with the possibility of an upset on the televised portion of both shows. Which favorite will go down? Read on.
Friday, February 12th
At The Pechanga Casino, Temecula, CA (ESPN2) Ji Hoon Kim, 19-5 (16) vs. Tyrone Harris, 24-5 (16) (ESPN2) Ruslan Provodnikov, 14-0 (9) vs. Javier Jauregui, 53-16-2 (36)
Javier Jauregui – They all come back, it’s no different for this Mexican slugger who returns to the ring for the first time since 2008. The former IBF lightweight champ lost four of his last six fights before retiring, but all six fights were against good opponents and he has not been stopped since 2000. Is now 37 years old, and gave Almazbek “Kid Diamond” Raiymkulov a tough fight in his last outing. Jauregui did not gain too much weight, and returns one weight class above where he left off. Jauregui gets stronger as the rounds wear on, and has a mauling/winging style which looks less effective than it is because of his long arms. Fights better on the inside than given credit for, and did so more as he aged and his speed began to fade. Which is why Jauregui has lost lopsidedly to mobile boxers, but given bangers who come at him problems with his toughness and reach. Was always a good body puncher, with the left hook considered his single best punch. With 486 pro rounds in his account, Jauregui won’t see anything new from Provodnikov, but the early rounds will be crucial for the Mexican to endure. If Jauregui has some accuracy left in his punches after a long layoff, and can get into the later rounds, this could be a better than expected duel.
Ruslan Provodnikov – The third TV appearance for the Russian, who impresses with brute strength and a willingness to walk through punches to deliver his payload. Describes his style as, “A lot of pressure, always going forward, sudden, hard punches.” Because of Provodnikov’s Asian features, comparisons to Kostya Tszyu are sure to be made. Is not as intelligent in the ring, nor does Provodnikov economize his punches the way Tszyu did. Two things stand out about Provodnikov, his thudding power and an utter lack of attention to defense. 26-year-old is a fun TV fighter to be sure, and is said to be teachable to the point that he just finished earning a University degree. If that is true, I expect some upper body movement and perhaps even ducking under a punch or two. Moves his head a bit, so there is a flicker of self-preserving instincts in him. Majority of his power lies in a big upper body and shoulders, so Provodnikov does not need a lot of space to hurt an opponent. For a big puncher, does not ignore the body, and when he goes to the ribs he does so with zeal. Gained a reputation at Freddy Roach’s Wild Card Gym for not letting up in sparring against anyone. Still looks raw for a guy who won 135 of 150 amateur bouts (from age 12 to 23) and won a European championship, but is perhaps ignoring basics in the knowledge of his physical superiority That could be why he has not shown a lot of combination punching either. Power is not of the one-punch variety, more like the crippling blows of a Julio Cesar Chavez (Mike Tyson is said to be Provodnikov’s boxing inspiration), but has resulted in nine stoppages in fourteen fights. Has gone ten rounds once, and beat solid Argentine Victor Castro in his last fight. When he reaches a higher level, a lack of elite hand speed could hurt him, and perhaps a propensity to cut if the defense does not improve. The kid grew up tough in Siberia and fights like he doesn’t want to go back!
Result – Although Provodnikov’s style seems to fit Jauregui, the kid looks too powerful for the Mexican veteran to engage. This leaves Jauregui with few options and little beside his toughness to get into the later rounds. I have a sneaking suspicion that Provodnikov is not as one-dimensional as footage suggests, and a slowing Jauregui will allow him to show this. If the fight does not end before four rounds, Provodnikov will begin to mix boxing with banging, extending the beating until the referee stops the fight in the last two rounds.
Tyrone Harris – The Michigan native, who is trying to erase the “good opponent” image, can be trouble for prospects when he comes to a fight with his “A” game. Has the speed, and difficult southpaw stance, to get to Kim early and place some doubts in the Korean’s mind. Harris lacks bulk across the upper body, and prefers to box his way around foes instead of attacking straight on. Wore down a good Damian Fuller, stopping his intrastate rival in the ninth round, and last time out, upset left-handed Mexican prospect Marvin Quintero. Last loss was to prospect Urbano Antillon, when he could not escape Antillon’s superior power and quick feet, going down twice in the fifth round. A fine amateur, winning a Golden Gloves title, he will have an option to employ Plan B if things do not go his way early. At 28, is in his prime as an athlete, mentally and physically, so Harris needs to fight more than the twice-a-year that he averaged the last two years. Has the full complement of skills as far as hand speed, fluidity, and balance, but has shown a propensity to wilt under consistent pressure. That looks like it could be the storylines, but Harris’ weight has been higher than Kim’s for most of his career. If there is trouble for Harris it is because he is not an out-and-out runner, and fires back when hit instead of retreating to reset his offense. Given his abilities Harris should have a better record, but is too erratic to put place much confidence in.
Ji Hoon Kim – Had a great warm-up for this fight by roaring back to knock out a similar southpaw to Harris in Zolani Marali (in South Africa) five months ago. Came up the hard way, turning pro at age 17 (only began to box at age 16) and losing three of his first five fights. Reeled off five wins before he was overmatched and lost two ten-rounders before his 13th pro fight. Displayed mental resiliency to fight his way to this point, and has not lost in the last four years during his current 11-fight winning streak. An all-action “I dare you to stand in front of me” brawler, who has knocked out his last nine opponents. At 23, has blossomed in terms of strength, which he combines with a worth ethic of a manic monk. Despite lack of defense, has only been stopped once, and shown endurance in terms of retaining punching power late while taking punches throughout. Also, for some reason, Kim just looks like a big guy. Perhaps because of his height mixed with small waist and long arms? Can wear on opponents through contact or leaning of any kind, and looks comfortable on the outside or inside. Had no amateur bouts, learning on the fly and in the gyms. Beat former Olympian Koba Gogoladze in his American debut. This is Kim’s second fight in America, but was rocked hard before coming back to score a first round kayo. Has to be in shape to continuously rally in fights and demonstrate his recuperative powers. At 23, Kim has the potential to develop into a mainstay on television because of his ultra-tough and exciting fighting style. The question is at what level? ESPN/FOX or Showtime/HBO?
Result – What’s your preference, speed or power? Brawler or counter-puncher? In this fight, you have a clear choice. What I keep coming back to is Kim needing to come back in every fight to win. That catches up to fighters, and Harris has the style to score a wide points win if he can stay upright for ten rounds. I say Kim’s good fortune ends tonight, and his inevitable made-for-TV rally falls short. If this were a 12-round fight, I might have gone with Kim. I am relying on a previously-unreliable Harris as well. A tough call, but Harris survives to win a decision.
Saturday, February 13th
At The Las Vegas Hilton, Las Vegas, NV (PPV) Nonito Donaire, 22-1 (14) vs. Manuel Vargas, 26-4-1 (11) (The Ring Magazine #7 junior bantamweight vs. unranked) (PPV) Fernando Montiel, 39-2-2 (29) vs. Ciso Morales, 14-0 (8) (The Ring Magazine #9 bantamweight vs. unranked) (WBO bantamweight belt) (PPV) Eric Morel, 41-2 (21) vs. Gerry Penalosa, 54-7-2 (36) (PPV) Mario Santiago, 21-1-1 (14) vs. Bernabe Concepcion, 27-3-1 (15) (The Ring Magazine #8 featherweight vs. unranked)
Bernabe Concepcion – Talk about a young veteran. 22-year-old Filipino has been a pro for six years, and scored his best wins on the road in Mexico and America. Concepcion gets crowds on their feet with a brash damn-the-torpedoes style and a dedication to body work that even Hispanic fans rooting for Santiago will appreciate. That style got some refinement after Freddie Roach took over his training. Concepcion was signed by Top Rank after he upset a then-undefeated Joksan Hernandez, perhaps seeing the Mexico vs. Philippines rivalry on the horizon? A 22-fight winning streak was just snapped by a DQ loss to WBO champ Steven Luevano in August, when a frustrated Concepcion hit Luevano after the bell. Against Luevano, Concepcion’s lack of hand speed was out in the open, and his defense was porous as well. However, because of his aggression, Concepcion was only a couple points behind on the scorecards, and a big right hand always loomed as dangerous. Concepcion has gone the 12-round distance once, and ten rounds on multiple occasions. A sturdy, come-at-you guy in the mold of 1930s-era sluggers like Bat Battalino or Peter Kane. Note that Concepcion has dug deeper then Santiago to come back in a fight, which could be a telling factor if this bout develops into the type of grind-it-out affair Concepcion wants.
Mario Santiago – The 31-year old is a good example of why it is important to become rated by a sanctioning body. I thought he was unjustly ranked at #12 by the WBO back in 2008, after a first-round kayo of journeyman Edel Ruiz, and he subsequently got a title shot against Steven Luevano in short order. To his credit, Santiago did better than expected, and fought to a draw with the newly-crowned champ. Had two fights in 2009, and barely got by 11-7-2 Morris Chule, via split decision in his last bout. A southpaw with decent power, Santiago has not stopped any of his last three opponents. Strength lies in his speed, but does not look totally devoid of power when standing flatfooted. Santiago prefers to stay on the outside and work his way in behind a jab, sliding to the side to get off a quick combination or hit and run. Was a good amateur (had first amateur bout age 15, but his uncles had him in the local gym with them at a much earlier age) ending in a 53-5 record. Represented Puerto Rico in international tourneys, which shows in his punch selection and calmness. In his lone loss, Mexican volume puncher Hector Velazquez did not allow Santiago to get on track, hitting Santiago with awkward blows every time it looked like Santiago was about to launch a big punch. Trained by Evangelista Cotto, who seems to have gotten more aggression out of Santiago offensively than many thought was there. Santiago has never lacked for finesse on offense; it’s his ability to put opponents away that is questioned.
Result – A solid match-up, and the type of test that merits the winner a title shot. Each man is good at what they do, but Santiago’s edge lies in a five-inch reach and two-inch height advantage. That is hard for a slugger to overcome against a boxer of Santiago’s skill. There is too much for Conception to take in, from a southpaw stance to lateral movement, and overcome in ten rounds. I like Santiago to overcome rough patches late to score a close decision victory.
Gerry Penalosa – From fighting stock (older brother Dodie was a world champion), this 37-year old Filipino has a history of erratic ring performances at the highest level. The perfect example is a one-punch body shot kayo of Jhonny Gonzalez. Penalosa was losing badly, and on the verge of becoming a stoppage loser before rescuing himself with a perfect punch to the liver. Looked good in his lone defense, against Ratanachai Sor Vorapin (whom he had beaten before), but was dismantled by Juan Manuel Lopez in a brave attempt to hang with the superior youngster. By all rights, should have retired by now, but wants one last shot at a title. Four of seven losses have come by split decision, and only “JuanMa” ever outclassed Penalosa. An excellent boxer in his prime, one of the best his nation ever produced, employing speed and timing to deliver a dazzling array of combination punches. Those virtues have been replaced, in the last three years, with a granite chin and a willingness to take two punches to deliver one of his own. It is hard to judge Penalosa by his last fight because Lopez is such an excellent boxer, but it looked like Penalosa was on his last legs. I chose that description because Penalosa could not move fast enough on defense or offense to set up punches. At his best, was an intuitive counterpuncher, now left to engage and come straight at opponents. Not sure if that is because Penalosa is aware of vanishing hand speed, or if he believes his strength and desire are enough to win. The jab, from a southpaw stance, is still there and, in combination with his smart feet, can win fights against fighters of lesser pedigree. Always comes in shape and retains his stamina, allowing him to pressure when and how much he wants. Was at his best at 115 pounds, but now, is a smaller guy up two weight classes. That notwithstanding, Penalosa has never been dropped, despite engaging some tremendous sluggers. Against Daniel Ponce De Leon and Jhonny Gonzalez, Penalosa showed that he can handle bigger guys and be competitive. Reports state Penalosa looks good in workouts, under the guidance of Freddie Roach in L.A. at the Wild Card Gym. Is also going by his given name of “Geronimo” now, which is apt, given his recent change of style.
Eric Morel – One of the bright lights coming out of the 1996 Olympics, many thought he would develop into a major attraction below the bantamweight division. Is of Puerto Rican heritage, but fought for the USA in the Olympics and grew up in Madison, Wisconsin. A combination of complacency and legal problems derailed his once-promising career, seven years in, and is now trying to get some of that back at age 34. A Golden Gloves champion, he was unlucky enough to draw Cuban Maikro Romero in the first round of the Olympics, losing 24-12. Because of his ability and amateur pedigree, was fast tracked by Top Rank to a title shot, winning the WBA flyweight title in his fourth year as a pro. Nickname of “Little Hands of Steel” is misleading, since Morel has less than a 50% kayo ratio and is a boxer who moves to set up combinations. Has not stopped a quality opponent since 2002. Would not call Morel a pure boxer, but he prefers opponents come at him to gauge and pick them apart rather than hunting them down with his size and speed. That speed has diminished, but remains world-class. Combination of talents earned him 33 wins to begin his career. No one came close to Morel on the scorecards before 2003, and he was getting consideration for P4P status. Made five defenses of the title before Venezuelan hotshot Lorenzo Parra dropped him in the third round, taking the title in an entertaining scrap. Morel immediately moved up in weight, but was shockingly outclassed by Martin Castillo losing all but one round on every judge’s scorecard. Entered that fight with a lot on his mind, and was jailed seven months later, after pleading no-contest to second-degree sexual assault of a drunken 15-year-old girl. Served a two-year prison sentence, and has won six fights in his comeback. Best win in comeback, so far, was outpointing Heriberto Ruiz, where Morel’s speed and jab allowed him to dominate from the outside. A negative is that Morel only fought once in 2009. Not all his fault, fights with Fernando Montiel kept falling through, but it has been 11 months since his last ring appearance. Ring rust aside, Morel remains a threat to any champion from 118 pounds to 125 pounds.
Result – This would have been a boxing tactician’s dream fight in 2002, but both men have regressed since that time. Penalosa, more so, in my opinion. Much like Santiago against Concepcion, Morel just enjoys too many physical and stylistic advantages. The recent tendency of Penalosa to slug it out plays into Morel’s wheelhouse as well, and the Puerto Rican is two inches taller and has a five-inch reach advantage. I don’t see how Penalosa shrinks that distance, or gets to the body, as he has stated is his strategy. Morel stays on the outside to win an easier-than-expected decision.
Ciso Morales – Follows in the footsteps of Marvin Sonsona, as a Filipino fighter who is making the jump to championship bouts before his 15th pro fight. A hard-hitting prospect, but nothing Morales has achieved to date seems worthy of a title shot. First eight opponents did not have a win to their names, and Morales has never defeated anyone with more than 11 wins. Footage of Morales shows a rough edged banger, who likes to begin combinations with a straight right, ending with a big left hook to the head. Right hand looks like the bigger weapon for now, but at 22 and only three years removed from his pro debut, Morales has time to mature. Well, he did before this fight was made! Physically reminiscent of Daniel Ponce De Leon, with a thick upper body and legs, muscles everywhere and not much room to cut excess fat. Can be compared to De Leon in boxing style, since Morales overwhelms foes with power and constant pressure. His punches still have too much arc, and the right hand is telegraphed. Hard to tell how much boxing skills Morales, has with his success running over foes, or if he can fall back on other skills if forced by an opponent. Was reportedly undefeated as an amateur, so that provides hope. I will say Morales looks fast, but not sure if I can put that down to him or his opposition. Favorite fighter is Erik Morales (for which he must take a lot of flak for, back home), and he even uses the nickname of “Kid Terrible”. A good sign is that Morales is trained by Nonito Donaire Sr., who has been training a lot of Filipino talent beside his sons. Morales had his first fight outside of the Philippines in Canada this November, where most thought he was lucky to escape with an eight-round majority decision win. Morales has gone 12 rounds once before. A good sign, but most believe if this fight goes the distance, it is Montiel who has the advantage.
Fernando Montiel – I refer to the classy Montiel as the reverse Barrera, a slick boxer who has morphed into an exciting kayo machine. This stylist has not faced a mediocre opponent since 2004, and only suffered two inarguable setbacks against championship-caliber foes. The speedster is the closest Mexico has come to replicating Miguel Canto, but in recent bouts, has ditched defensively sound tactics in favor of a fan-friendly action style. The results have been great for fans – five kayos in his last seven fights – but the 30-year-old has had to absorb punishment in return. A technically sound boxer/puncher now, in the Ricardo Lopez mold, a superior skill-set has allowed Montiel to deal with a decline in hand speed. Has never been outclassed, even in close losses to Jhonny Gonzalez and Mark Johnson, but did show signs of vulnerability against free-swinging Alejandro Valdez in his last fight. Unlike most Mexican boxers, he grew up idolizing Sugar Ray Leonard, which shows in a fluid style and ability to switch from defense to offense in an instant. I have already referred to four great fighters in this review of Montiel, and that is because Montiel has the ability to infuse so many styles into his arsenal. At his best, was like an arrow, moving into position to deliver a punch (and retreating just as fast) before an opponent was aware of what happened. Even with new found offensive ability, he remains a thinking fighter who exploits minuscule flaws. A three-division title holder, Montiel can trick or move opponents into his combinations and is a couple good wins away from pound-for-pound consideration. Much of his success has been built on speed and reflexes, and I am not sure how many recent tough fights have taken from that. Shown a warriors heart, and will have to do so again with this young and menacing opponent.
Result – Sonsona’s management has a lot of confidence in the young man, throwing him in with a high-caliber and seasoned pro like Montiel. Or, they believe Montiel is near the end and somewhat shot. This title opportunity was to be Z Gorres’, but Gorres suffered a career-ending brain injury (which he is recovering from and will be ringside) that has allowed Morales to step up to the plate. I do think Montiel can be had, but not by someone of such limited experience. Yes, Morales has a puncher’s chance, but Montiel has seen and experienced it all before and will ride out trouble spots with his know-how. Unless Montiel gets careless trying to finish off Morales, he wins an uneventful decision avoiding the powerful-but-rudimentary punches of Morales.
Manuel Vargas – A last minute replacement for Gerson Guerrero (who failed a vision test), who is not a bad substitute, given he was announced on Wednesday. Another Mexican fighter who came up the hard way, losing two of his first three fights as a pro, as well as a lone fight outside of Mexico. Last bout was a split decision setback to Donnie Nietes, last September, where Vargas had early success but could not make use of his height and reach advantage in the late rounds. Vargas took too many punches, and did not vary his punches to prevent Nietes from seeing and countering his offense. Most Americans saw Vargas in a close and entertaining decision loss to Rayonta Whitfield, on ESPN2, where the hometown boy got favorable, but not unwarranted judging. Rebounded from that setback, and back into the title picture, with a fourth round kayo of Daniel Reyes and a win over future title challenger Walter Tello. Is a hard-to-discourage volume puncher, who does his best work when allowed to get on the inside and bang to the body, arms and head. If it moves in the ring, Vargas will throw a punch at it. Outside of the Whitfield setback, he only lost to Nietes in the last eight years, and is in his physical prime, at age 28. Can be outthought in the ring, but is nearly impossible to discourage from advancing and is a good in-fighter despite a lanky frame. Vargas has faced a similar level of competition to Donaire, but didn’t look as good in his wins as Donaire has. One concern has to be that Vargas has never fought at 118 pounds, but at 5’6” he should be able to carry the weight well.
Nonito Donaire – Despite Donaire’s knockout of Vic Darchinyan, one of the decade’s best, I remained unsure about his legitimacy. Given three victories since then, over well-qualified Moruti Mthalane, Luis Maldonado, and Raul Martinez, my skepticism flew in the face of reality. I have now made a 180-degree reversal, and now accept him as an elite fighter. Although, I cannot agree with his being ranked by The Ring magazine as the #6 pound-for-pound boxer! At 27, Donaire is in his prime, and has a wealth of amateur experience to fall back upon, if ever in a crisis. His all-around boxing skills are multiplied by abundant hand speed, and despite a 5’6” frame, Donaire is a good body puncher. Moniker of “Filipino Flash” is justified, and he hides those flashes of power behind a stiff jab. Of course, the Filipino (who competed for a spot on the American Olympic team, losing to Brian Viloria) lives in the shadow of Manny Pacquiao, but Donaire’s visibility is rising around the world. A flaw I believed to have detected with Donaire is that he gives up too much of the ring to weaker opponents, but that could just be his fighting preference? Donaire moves backward and sideways, luring opponents into mistakes as they advance. He worked this to perfection against Darchinyan, dropping the cocky Armenian with a left hook worthy of The Ring’s “KO of the Year” accolades in 2007. He should be more active (three fights in the last two years), and Top Rank has promised to remedy that in 2010. Hard to find a fault in any other any area with Donaire since 2007, and he can develop into a top attraction if he fights and defeats the resurgent Darchinyan a second time.
Result – Bottom line, Vargas is moving up ten pounds in weight from his last fight, and facing a big puncher to boot. Without a big punch, 35% kayo ratio, Vargas has nothing to hold off or make Donaire question himself. The challenger cannot be in championship form either, on three days’ notice, mentally or physically. Given all the disadvantages for Vargas, Donaire should score a highlight reel kayo around the halfway mark of the fight.
Prediction record for 2010 to date: 80% (20-5)
