In part one of my annual preview-review I lamented that readers who visit multiple boxing websites are sure to notice how easy it is for journalists to make predictions. They are certain in the knowledge that few will remember what they wrote in a year’s time. But I feel that writing for Maxboxing is to be held to a higher standard. With those thoughts in mind, every year I venture back in time and review my predictions for the previous year. I, again, encourage readers to take a look around the ‘Net. I don’t think you will find another boxing website or publication taking the time to examine and analyze their editorials from the recent past.
In this 2009 Preview Review, I revisit my predictions in every weight class for a champion who will stay, a champion who will go and a boxer to watch out for. I do not make any changes to the predictions from last year; removing any temptation to make myself look better through minor removal of irrelevant content. This means I have to separate this feature into three parts, in order to keep the word count below that of a Stephen King novel. At the end of each prediction I apply a simple grade, from A to F, along with an opinion on how the prognostication turned out.
FEATHERWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Chris John
What I said: A pretty obvious choice since John is not likely to leave Indonesia and has only fought twice a year since 2004. At 29 he is also a mature champion who just got through outpointing his mandatory challenger by a wide margin in Japan. Another positive for John is that Western promoters are not going to send their young contenders to Indonesia for a fight, and will instead go after an aging title holder like Oscar Larios or a lesser talent like new IBF champ Cristobal Cruz. The WBA does not have a Murderers Row of contenders either, and John should have little problem defending his title twice more in 2009.
Grade – A- : I was of the belief that John handily defeated Rocky Juarez twice in 2009, but the judges disagreed and John was ruled to have only drawn with Juarez in the American’s hometown. The Indonesian slickster left no doubt in the second fight, and no need for a trilogy by scoring an unanimous decision win. No matter, John showed his overall superiority, and gained a good American fan base in the process. If not for that official draw I would have given myself a solid “A”.
Champion who will go: Oscar Larios
What I said: Not only should Larios not be the WBC champion, by most medical standards he should not have entered the ring after his loss to Jorge Linares in 2007. In that fight Larios suffered a minor subdural hematoma, commonly refereed to as bleeding on the brain. But the WBC, who chose to ignore their holier-than-thou stance on boxing health and safety in this case, ignored this and allowed Larios to fight for their title. He defeated the unqualified Feider Viloria to win an interim belt that eventually turned into full title status. Featherweight features a pretty weak lot of champions, and it was harder deciding which boxer would stay instead of go. I will be rooting against Larios, just so he might retire after a loss. However, he will probably lose his title because he is not as good as he once was. At 32 he has slowed in every department, and is likely to be offered up to a young upstart like Yuriorkis Gamboa.
Grade – A : I was overjoyed when weak hitting Takahiro Aoh won a decision over Larios to take the title, thus ensuring Larios would not be hurt by the much stronger, faster, and deadly Yuriorkis Gamboa. I use the word deadly advisedly in this case, because I doubt the WBC would have stepped in to prevent that potential tragedy from happening. I enjoyed Larios in his prime, and he gave too much to see him removed from the ring on a stretcher. Larios has not fought since his loss to Aoh, which is the most positive aspect of his final year in boxing.
Will rise in 2009: Yuriorkis Gamboa
What I said: Sometimes there is no getting past the obvious. I wanted to surprise readers and select someone like Choi Tseveenpurev (a battle tested Mongolian, but also 37) or Chonlatarn Piriyapinyo (the 23 year old Thai has not proven himself as much as Gamboa), but circumstances force me to go with the odds on favorite. Gamboa, a former Cuban Olympian, has looked fantastic in disposing of former prospects Adailton De Jesus and Samuel Kebede. Showed he can work for a win when the opposition fails to go quietly against Darling Jimenez, and his crunching combination of handspeed and power was evident in his last two kayo performances on national TV. But he also had mental lapses that are eerily reminiscent of the ones Zab Judah used to make, and it has registered with boxing insiders. However, he has good promotional backing, and title holders Oscar Larios and Cristobal Cruz are beatable.
Grade – A : Technically, I could have given myself an A+, since Gamboa is now a full belt holder and won four fights in 2009. But Gamboa won the “interim regular” WBA title form the 37 year old and unqualified Jose Rojas, never having to beat the real WBA champ. The WBA did remove the interim tag (why I am not sure?) from Gamboa, making him a “regular” champion. Of course all this only means that Chris John remains the real WBA champion in the eyes of sane boxing fan. Still, it was a quality year for Gamboa.
JR. LIGHTWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Jorge Linares
What I said: Talent! It is the best reason to go with Linares, who reminds me a bit of Alexis Arguello in his style and demeanor. The 23 year old is still maturing in the ring, knocking out his last five foes, and looks to be improving on an already impressive skill set. This could be Linares’ breakout year, and outside of a unification fight with Humberto Soto I cannot see anyone giving the powerful Venezuelan a stern test. The WBA’s top ten is either weak or unproven, and number one challenger Israel Perez has not lived up to the potential he showed as an Argentine Olympian. Linares could become special, but his career defining fights are likely to come in 2010 not 2009.
Grade – F : Linares’ loss to Juan Salgado was the most shocking upset of the year. I will say that I think it was a somewhat fluky kayo (he caught Linares around the top of the head in the first round, but applied a quality finish as well), and that Linares would handily defeat Salgado in a rematch. No excuses though, and a loss like that leaves me no choice but to give myself an F. Linares is still only 24 years old, so I expect him to make a strong comeback and perhaps become better for the loss?
Champion who will go: Nicky Cook
What I said: It was tough choice between the Englishman and Cassius Baloyi. In the end I chose Cook because he has a tougher mandatory, Puerto Rican upstart Roman Martinez, and he could square off against the talented Kevin Mitchell (a local rival) in a fight that would reward both financially. Either is a tough challenge, and Cook has had problems when handed world class opposition. Cook winning the WBO title from Alex Arthur was a minor upset in itself. Cook was hurt in that fight, and he was dropped five times by Steven Luevano in his only loss. Baloyi is older, and has a weaker list of potential opponents, but he looks like he might be having a late stage career revival at age 34.
Grade – A : Was overwhelmed by Puerto Rican slugger Roman Martinez in March, and has not returned to the ring since. Cook had his moments in the third round of the Martinez fight, but two knockdowns of Cook in the fourth round prompted the referee to stop the fight. I could not have gone wrong with my pick here since Cassius Baloyi, my second choice, was kayoed in a title defense as well.
Will rise in 2009: Urbano Antillon
What I said: Any non-title fight Antillon takes in 2009 will be of the keep busy variety, and this is a boxer-puncher who seems ready to fight for a world title. He is the number one challenger to newly crowned champion Humberto Soto, and taking the title from him will not be an easy feat. But if Antillon is not ready for that challenge now, he never will be. He is in his prime at age 26, and has dispatched of solid opposition on his way to a number one ranking. Antillon has not been forced to go the distance since 2006 (his last eight fights) and you can sense he is putting his punches together to formulate stoppages. If his ring savvy is now aligned with his skills, I could see Antillon putting it all together to score a points victory over Soto.
Grade – F : Antillon started the year well by stopping the usually sturdy Tyrone Harris, but was then kayoed in nine rounds by relative unknown Miguel Acosta. It seemed like Antillon expected Acosta to fade in that fight, but the Venezuelan kept walking Antillon down then scored with a viscous uppercut that sent Antillon down. Give Antillon credit for making it to his feet, but the referee was right to wave the fight off. In my preview I wrote, “If Antillon is not ready for that challenge (Humberto Soto) now, he never will be.” Sadly, that looks like the case.
LIGHTWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: None
What I said: I do not think Manny Pacquiao will return to 135 to defend the WBC title, and Campbell (who holds the other three titles) is too erratic to rely upon.
Grade – A+ : This prediction was short, sweet, and correct.
Champion who will go: Nate Campbell
What I said: I am positive that Campbell will either lose a title through boxing politics, since the IBF loves to strip its champions, or a loss in the ring. At this stage in his career, Campbell wants – and will get – bigger paydays for facing tough opposition. I can see a rematch with Juan Diaz materializing, and other title defenses against the likes of Edwin Valero, Anthony Peterson, or Juan Manuel Marquez are also feasible. Any of those four men have a chance to defeat Campbell. I can not get over Campbell self-destructing on previous occasions, and it is just as likely Campbell will pull out a win because of his overall abilities. The odds however, are against his keeping all three titles.
Grade – A : Turns out I was wrong about how Campbell would lose his title (he could not make weight), but ultimately was correct about his inability to retain the title through 2009. I did make sure to mention Campbell’s previous history of “self-destructing”, which is exactly what Campbell did in both his fights in 2009! Though, in his defense, Campbell faced two very good foes in Ali Funeka and Tim Bradley.
Will rise in 2009: Anthony Peterson
What I said: The 23 year old boxer-puncher has completed his apprenticeship, but he did so with less flair than many expected from him. He has not been pressed by a solid lot of foes, but he has also not gone out of his way to score stoppages where putting his foot on the accelerator might have done so. He is the younger brother of Lamont Peterson, but is the bigger puncher of the talented duo. He brought an impressive set of boxing skills with him from the amateurs, where he won the National Golden Gloves lightweight title. We need to see if he can take a punch as well as he dishes one out, but world class manager Shelly Finkel is sure to get him a title shot that will go a long way towards telling us about the quality of Peterson’s chin.
Grade – C : It’s the lowest passing grade I could give for a boxer who did not lose in 2009. Maybe I should be more generous, since Peterson waited out an old contract before signing with Top Rank, and also suffered a knee injury that scuttled a proposed fight with Edner Cherry. Peterson beat an ordinary Luis Arceo in August, but did not enter the ring for the rest of the year. More worryingly, he has no fight scheduled for 2010 yet. Peterson has time on his side, is only 24 years old, but his career momentum definitely took a hit in 2009.
JR. WELTERWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Kendall Holt
What I said: For me this choice came down to picking the winner of the scheduled Holt – Bradley fight. I think it will be Holt, given his activity and the offensive versatility he showed against Demetrius Hopkins. The Hopkins bout was also a good tune-up fight, since Bradley is likely to rely on a similar style in his fight with Holt. Bradley will want to counterpunch as well, but will do so with more speed and determination than Hopkins. Holt showed good mental strength in dealing with a last minute change of opponents, which presented him with a complete opposite of what he had trained for, and came forward instead of allowing Hopkins to get into a rhythm. Superior activity and a more attractive offensive attack should allow Holt to retain his title via an exceptionally close split decision. Number one challenger Willy Blain, a former Olympian, has been underwhelming, and I am not sure if Ricardo Torres will figure in Holt’s plans after a title unification win?
Grade – F : Not only did I pick the wrong champion, I blew the fight prediction in the unification bout between Holt and Bradley in the process. Holt had an opportunity to win that fight early, scoring a hard first round knockdown of Bradley, but was never able to go to a plan B when Bradley figured him out. This was more a case of underestimating Bradley than anything else, and I hold Bradley in very high esteem now as my highest rated 140 pounder aside from Pacquiao. It has been ten month since Holt’s loss to Bradley, and he has not entered a boxing ring since. Which means we both get an “F”.
Champion who will go: Andreas Kotelnik
What I said: This is not so much a knock on Kotelnik, or his abilities, but a tip of the hat to his challenger Marcos Maidana. The Argentine dynamo has scored 24 kayos in 25 fights, against a wide stylistic range of foes, and has done so in Europe. Kotelnik is a solid boxer, but has not excelled in fights against world class opposition. He won the title from a weak title holder, Welshman Gavin Rees, but to his credit has never been totally outclassed by anyone. Kotelnik did lose decisions to Junior Witter and Souleymane M’baye, but the keys to those losses were the advantages in hand speed for that duo. That might not be the case with Maidana, but Maidana’s power will put Kotelnik on his back foot and perhaps into a defensive shell.
Grade – A- : I can’t be too hard on Kotelnik, since he faced two excellent young guns in Marcos Maidana and Amir Khan. Many thought Kotelnik lost the Maidana fight, but he was awarded a split decision win (no judge had it more than two points apart) and should be applauded for taking another tough fight five months later. I got a bit lucky that Kotelnik did seek out the Khan fight, but he could not match Khan’s feet and fast hands in losing a wide decision. A lesser champion would have rode out the year after dispatching his number one challenger, and Kotelnik should be commended for taking chances in an era that can reward mediocrity.
Will rise in 2009: Marcos Maidana
What I said: Will Maidana become the Argentine version of Edwin Valero, or the next Walter Matthysse? I am betting on the former, and think he has breakout potential if he wins the WBO title from a respectable champ who is a former Olympic silver medalist. Maidana was no slouch in the amateurs either, and just missed out on an Olympic birth (American Rock Allen beat him on points in the finals of the Americas qualifiers). Maidana has an eye catching combination of accuracy and power, and you can not achieve a kayo ratio in the upper 90’s without good finishing skills or killer instinct. Since 2007 Maidana has had five fights in Germany, so acclimating himself should not pose a problem for the South American. I have only seen Maidana’s work on youtube, but I do have good contacts in Germany who see him as a future star.
Grade – B+ : Had to rise from the canvas a couple times, but Maidana more than impressed fans in America and Europe with his tenacity. While Maidana did officially lose to Kotelnik, he impressed the Germans and returned with a vengeance to kayo American prospect Victor Ortiz in his next fight. For good measure scored a quick kayo of William Gonzalez for fans in his native Buenos Aires in November. Could not give him an “A” because of the loss, and let’s not forget if it were not for his toughness Maidana could have lost to Ortiz after a horrible start. Still, the kid is the best new young face American TV presented this year.
WELTERWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Joshua Clottey
What I said: There are two very good reasons to pick Clottey, besides his fists. First, none of the big names are eager face to Clottey. Second, he has the style to repel the top ten in the IBF with minimal ease. At 31, Clottey has the perfect mix of mental and physical sharpness, and having fought his way to a title the hard way, he is not likely to let his title go easily. Kermit Cintron is the only top ten guy likely to bother Clottey, and even his style plays into Clottey’s high guard / high punch-output style. Margarito is not likely to come calling after their close 12 round affair in 2006, and he has already beaten Zab Judah. So Clottey is left without any big paydays, but also without the threat of losing his title in 2009.
Grade – D : Just my luck, Miguel Cotto wanted to reassert himself after a loss to Margarito and chose Clottey to do it against. Had I seen that turn (with Top Rank eager to match two of their own) down the road I would have never selected Clottey, and that lack of vision results in a failing grade. The whole pick was based on quality opponents avoiding Clottey. Before I get to dismissive of Clottey, he did put up a good fight and is still a player at welterweight given his bullying style.
Champion who will go: Andre Berto
What I said: Will Berto lose his crown this year? Perhaps not, but he is a young and inexperienced champ facing a tough little lefty in his next defense. The Luis Collazo bout is not a gimme, and he is likely to face at least one other credible challenge on HBO in 2009. Berto is a good young fighter, and lacks nothing but seasoning. He was gifted the title when the WBC approved the Miguel Rodriguez fight as an official title bout, and the fight with blown up Steve Forbes was more a test than a title defense. The only other choice I have is Antonio Margarito, and there is a possibility he could lose to Shane Mosley. The odds favor Collazo beating Berto more than Mosley beating Margarito, so I am going to play them.
Grade – D+ : There are plenty of people who will tell you Berto did lose his title to Collazo, but that the judges saw future possibilities instead of ring effectiveness for Berto on that night. I was probably a year too soon in selecting Berto, since I believe Mosley will erase the zero at the end of his record on the 30th of this month. This review sounds a bit like sour grapes, since Berto upset my pick, but I really like Berto in and out of the ring. However, I believe he has been handed a easy path to an alphabet belt and HBO paydays. Berto’s victories are of the stuff that should have gotten him a title shot…, not title defenses. Great kid, and I think he has a bright future no matter who wins in his bout with Shane Mosley.
Will rise in 2009: Selcuk Aydin
What I said: This is a weak crop of youngsters, and no one stands out as having the all-around skill set needed to create a buzz that cries out for a title shot. I am going to take a flyer on this Turkish bomber. One of the reasons I am going with Aydin is an extensive amateur career, where he competed in international tourneys from the age of 16 on. Is currently 16-0, with 13 kayos, and is a big attraction in his native Turkey even though he fights out of Germany mostly. Has a pleasing offensive style, switching between pressure offense and a solid long-range sniper mentality according to the opposition. Showed patience and intelligence when he defeated South Africa’s Lucky Lewele, refusing to get frustrated when his punches did not dent the veteran’s defenses. Aydin edges out South African Bongani Mwelase, who struggled a bit more against Lewele.
Grade – A : Won three times in 2009, winning an European title and appearing on American television in the process. Did not show his best against awkward Said Ouali, in his Showtime debut, but rebounded well to knock out respected European veteran Jackson Bonsu three months later. Showtime would be well served to bring the aggressive slugger back as soon as possible, since Aydin might be knocking on the door of a title shot by the end of this year.
JR. MIDDLEWEIGHT
Champion who will stay: Daniel Santos
What I said: The most underrated jr. middleweight of the last decade, and few seem to remember Santos legitimately defeating Antonio Margarito in 2004 (the fight went to the scorecards after a headbutt in the 10th round). Lost his belt on a close decision to Sergiy Dzinziruk, in Germany, but roared back to knock out Joachim Alcine to win the WBA version of the title. A solid fighter who does everything well, and can be compared stylistically to Fernando Vargas. Not flashy, just damn good and intelligent in his offense. Will presumably fight twice this year, and is waiting for a mandatory to emerge in the ratings. It should be James Kirkland, and even if it is, Santos has a good chance of beating the still maturing slugger.
Grade – F- : My Lord, did Santos let me down against Yuri Foreman. I should have had a clue when Santos looked plump a couple weeks before the Foreman fight (and gained over 15 pounds after the weigh-in), and instead of talking about Foreman was calling out Kermit Cintron. Might have been lucky to lose to the light hitting Foreman, who still knocked him down twice, instead of a hyper aggressive James Kirkland who ran into a jail term instead of Santos.
Champion who will go: Vernon Forrest
What I said: An aging high profile fighter who will be pursuing high profile bouts, this is a combination that did not work out well for American boxers in 2008. I don’t see it working for Forrest either, especially since his mandatory challenger is the red hot Sergio Martinez. Forrest is 37 years old now, and he has lost speed on that fastball right hand. In the last three years, Forrest has faced one dimensional foes, and still managed to register that inexplicable loss to Sergio Mora. The WBC’s pool of challengers is a weak lot outside of Martinez, and if he avoids Martinez, the WBC is likely to strip him. Either way, I can not see Forrest escaping 2009 with a title.
Grade – None : Never have I wanted to be more wrong. Most fans are aware that Forrest was the victim of a senseless shooting, and lost his life instead of an insignificant title. Sad.
Will rise in 2009: Alfredo Angulo
What I said: A wealth of choices in this division, and it came down to James Kirkland, Yuri Foreman, Zaurbek Baysangurov (unknown, but no joke), and Alfredo Angulo. As far as I am concerned, Kirkland and Angulo are the same savage fighter, but they come at you from different stances. I chose Angulo because he will fight Ricardo Mayorga next, and that is the kind of name win that can propel a boxer into a title fight. He has a slightly better amateur pedigree than Kirkland as well, and showed a warrior’s attitude against Richard Gutierrez. This was my hardest pick, since Kirkland has a Haglerian upside. Baysangurov could be on a level with Kirkland and Angulo, but it is hard to judge this Russian prospect equally against two boxers I have seen so much of.
Grade – C : Receives the lowest possible passing grade, because Angulo lost when he stepped up against Kermit Cintron. However, I am quick to pounce on fans and media alike who write of prospects after their first loss, and believe Angulo will be better for the loss in the long run. The post fight excuse for Angulo’s loss was that he was sick before the fight, so at the very least he can learn to never do that again if there was truth to that story. Let’s also remember that Cintron is no slouch, and Angulo was the aggressor (if ineffective) the vast majority of time.
In part III I review my choices from the traditional glory weight classes of middleweight through heavyweight.
