Mayweather and Pacquiao looks dead in the water, and neither side looks likely to back down on their stance by the Top Rank deadline of tomorrow morning.
For Pacquiao this means facing one of his accusers in the ring by means of a fight against Paulie Malignaggi. For Floyd a fight with Matthew Hatton looks the most likely option, with several opponents for each lining up after that.
Despite who they might fight in the future though, if the fight never happens Pacquiao and Mayweather will both go down as the two great fighters of this age who never met in the ring. Which of them will be remembered and thought of as the best is difficult to say for sure. While Manny looks more impressive at the moment, history has a way of twisting the facts slightly and leaning toward one fighter as better than the other despite the fact that they are probably comparable.
With pressure from the fans and media though, the fight being canceled might still turn into the fight being merely postponed, particularly if Manny and Floyd’s next fights don’t sell very well. While it looks likely that both sides will vow never to work with one another again when the fight is formally declared dead later on today, money has a way of changing minds better than sound bites from either camp.
Supposing Manny and Floyd both win their subsequent fights against Malignaggi and Hatton, which they both should and the sales are poor for both, which they probably will be. Suddenly making that $40 million plus is a lot more appealing again, and the transgressions of the past might be forgotten. This is particularly the case for Mayweather, who seemingly doesn’t want to fight some of the bigger welterweight stars such as Shane Mosley or Antonio Margarito. Also Manny is probably conscious of opponents his stablemate Amir Khan will likely face in the future, and won’t want to knock too many of them back and dull the prestige of Khan facing them.
A few months away from all the attention and hype in the barren wasteland that is the welterweight division, and suddenly Mayweather and Pacquiao might find themselves inevitably drawn back together. Obviously the dangers are there for another stalemate, but if both struggle to make that much money between now and then, the terms of the deal might be a little more relaxed from both sides.
One thing that both fighters have in common is big overheads over the next year. Manny has his usual huge team and legions of followers and friends who he keeps on the payroll, and Mayweather has his various debts of all kinds to pay off, and also regularly runs into trouble with the IRS as well. Suddenly making a few million per fight again doesn’t go so far as it used to, and without that many big sellers out there, ‘Pac-man’ and ‘Money’ might need each other more than they would care to admit.
Looking at the ranking tables below (From Boxrec), there are few fights for either fighter that will make them that much money and be really big pay per view sellers. Struck out are the fighters who can pretty much be discounted as a future opponent for either Manny or Floyd. This isn’t to say that the fighters are necessarily not that good, just that they don’t have the combination of being a real challenge while at the same time being a recognized name that the casual fans will recognize and be interested in. Lets not forget that this is only on the timescale of the next couple of years as well, by which time both will probably have retired, so future stars toward the bottom of the rankings are out too.
Even from the fighters who aren’t crossed out from the offset, many aren’t ready for either Mayweather or Pacquiao and need quite a few more fights before they will be near their level. Also after the end of the month either Andre Ward or Shane Mosley can probably be crossed off as the list for either fighter.
Welterweight rankings
1 Manny Pacquiao 50(38)-3(2)-2 2 Floyd Mayweather Jr 40(25)-0(0)-0 3 Shane Mosley 46(39)-5(0)-0 4 Antonio Margarito 37(27)-6(1)-0 5 Andre Berto 25(19)-0(0)-0 6 Miguel Angel Cotto 34(27)-2(2)-0 7 Joshua Clottey 35(20)-3(0)-0 8 Vyacheslav Senchenko 30(20)-0(0)-0 9 Selcuk Aydin 19(15)-0(0)-0 10 Sebastian Andres Lujan 32(20)-5(2)-2 11 Jan Zaveck 28(16)-1(0)-0 12 Rafal Jackiewicz 35(18)-8(0)-1 13 Alfonso Gomez 21(10)-4(1)-2 14 Zab Judah 38(26)-6(2)-0 15 Jose Luis Castillo 60(52)-9(6)-1
Light welterweight rankings
1 Timothy Bradley 25(11)-0(0)-0 2 Ricky Hatton 45(32)-2(2)-0 3 Nate Campbell 33(25)-5(2)-1 4 Marcos Rene Maidana 27(26)-1(0)-0 5 Amir Khan 22(16)-1(1)-0 6 Paul Malignaggi 27(5)-3(1)-0 7 Devon Alexander 19(12)-0(0)-0 8 Juan Urango 22(17)-2(0)-1 9 Kendall Holt 25(13)-3(2)-0 10 Joel Casamayor 37(22)-4(1)-1 11 Paul McCloskey 20(10)-0(0)-0 12 Juan Diaz 35(17)-3(1)-0 13 Mike Alvarado 26(18)-0(0)-0 14 Ajose Olusegan 27(13)-0(0)-0 15 Victor Ortiz 25(20)-2(1)-1
* You will note Mathew Hatton is nowhere to be seen on either list, he currently sits at no 33 in the welterweight rankings. Hardly a tough fight for someone who claims to be the best fighter in the world when there are so many other higher ranked fighters who would jump at the chance to fight Mayweather.
