Tabulating boxing PPV TV buy rates is like tracking a presidential election. It takes some patience just like a race for the White House.
You don’t start with 14 votes from the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, like you do when CNN and all their competitors are trying to get a handle on McCain versus Obama but you do have early indicators as to what the final numbers might be.
“Tracking strong, tracking very strong especially in the commercial establishments (bars and reataurants)” is the word I am getting from a longtime PPV TV maven who was not involved in the Miguel Cotto-Manny Pacquiao promotion.
Seee the Sports llustrated report by Chris Mannix who agrees with me and all sane individuals that the Mayweather-Pacman Colossal will go to contract.
My knowledgeable source, who must remain anonymous so to preserve him as a source, told me Tuesday afternoon that what he is looking at are total numbers that may quickly match and then surpass the supposed 1.1 million buy rate that Floyd Mayweather did against Juan Manuel Marquez on Sept. 19.
It won’t be until probably late Thursday that a reasonably certain “final number” can be extrapolated from the various PP distributors.
This industry veteran explained how the buy rate is compiled.
“The only guys who can get the real numbers are Bob Arum,and of course Ross Greenburg and Mark Taffet (HBO),” he said.
“Today, meaning Tuesday’s it all projections. By the end of the business day Wednesday they will have hard, reliable numbers as reported in from Direct TV and Dish Network, Those companies own the PPV boxes so they get their numbers directly. In Demand takes longer because they work with a bunch of unwired cable companies where those companies report from their boxes.
“I think it will match Marquez-Mayweather and maybe inch a bit past their numbers,” this TV insider said. “From there, it’s a heavy push to blow past the PPV all time record which is about 2.3 million for the Oscar de la Hoya-Mayweather fight. I do not know if a fight between a guy from the Philippines and a guy from Puerto Rico whose last name is not Trinidad can beat Floyd-Oscar.
“I will say this if the Mayweatgher clique thought they would smash Pacman’s final numbers, the early returns already tell me they got that wrong.”
Conspiracy theorists think games will be played and that Arum may not get the real numbers in an attempt to lower Pacman’s asking price for the Mayweather mega fight.
The old pro I spoke to said fear not on that account.
“He turns age 79 a month from now. But although Arum was born at night, he was not born last night. They don’t call him ‘The Sheik’ around his office for nothing.
“Don’t forget his 40 plus years of counting the money and the fact that he distributes his own PPV shows, the Latin Fury and Pinoy Power shows.
“Nobody is going to fool Arum with the hidden ball trick, trust me. As they like to say down at Redbone’s Barbeuce over in Mineral Wells, Texas, this ain’t Uncle Bobby’s first PPV rodeo.”
If, as a foreigner, Pacman can even match Mayweather’s numbers, I’d say that is yet another Pacquiao victory.
Let’s see what happens.
