Hello and welcome fight fans. The wait for the huge super fight between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto is almost over. The two will collide in a massively hyped pay per view clash this Saturday night. This bout has the potential to pull the rare double feat of being the highest grossing fight of the year and also the most entertaining. Pacquiao and Cotto have both been in fight of the year type bouts and generally make for good, crowd-pleasing affairs (in contrast to boxers like Floyd Mayweather). Most of this week’s questions are regarding this spectacular welterweight showdown.
Before we get to the Pacquiao vs. Cotto discussions/debates, there were some important fight results last weekend to discuss.
The anticipated rematch between Chad Dawson and Glen Johnson had an anti-climactic ending with Dawson clearly winning the unanimous decision this time. Chad was never in trouble and the result was never in doubt as Dawson put together one of his best wins to date. The key to the smooth victory was using his tremendous assets in skill and speed to box from the outside instead of engaging Johnson in a war. Dawson further bolstered his argument that he is one of the best pound for pound fighters today, and he also become one step closer to completely cleaning out the light heavyweight division. I believe that Chad Dawson is the future of the light heavyweight division and expect great things from him.
David Haye stole the WBA Heavyweight title from Nikolay Valuev via head-scratching, tortuously boring decision. Neither man did a whole lot of anything in the fight so they might as well have scored the bout a draw. I was shocked that Haye was able to win a close decision against Valuev in Germany. The only success that Haye had the entire bout was when he stunned Valuev in the last round. I don’t see that as being enough to take the title from the champion. Evander Holyfield did much more to deserve a decision against Valuev than Haye. The only people I have found who adamantly think Haye won the fight are extremely biased British fans. Leading into the fight, David Haye was considered the most interesting heavyweight contender and someone with potential to beat a Klitschko and bring excitement to the division. His stock dramatically fell with his performance against Valuev, despite getting the win.
The final topic I would like to discuss before moving on to the mailbag portion of the column is the Fedor Emelianenko fight. Emelianenko fought a big, strong striker named Brett Rogers during primetime on CBS. The first round was close and hard fought, but Fedor came through with the win in the second round to close a satisfying, entertaining bout. This was a huge event for MMA and for fighting sports in general. The ratings were mediocre but I hope that CBS brings more big fights like this to free network television. If the network is smart, they will realize that they need to build an audience slowly and the reward will be huge. If they keep offering quality fights, word of mouth will make the ratings soar.
Strikeforce has just as much talent in the heavyweight division as the UFC so Emelianenko has legitimate competition. Brett Rogers showed that his win over Andrei Arlovski was not a fluke with his spirited showing in defeat. Next up for Fedor is probably Alistair Overeem, who is the Strikeforce Champion and a fighter who I have a healthy respect for. Fedor could have his hands full with Overeem. The Strikeforce heavyweights do not get much press but I put guys like Brett Rogers and Alistair Overeem on par with the likes of Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
Now onto the mailbag, we dive head first into the hype of the looming, celebrated clash between Miguel Cotto and Manny Pacquiao. Please enjoy the mailbag, enjoy the fight, and be sure to send me your reactions and/or questions.
A Pacfan’s Prediction
I’d like to participate in the Pacquiao-Cotto super fight by sharing with you my call.
Since there’s not much contention between Pacquiao and Cotto on who has an edge in speed, size, strength, youth, stamina, corner, or even big fight experience, I will only speculate on the issue of power before moving on to how I envision the fight to pun out on Nov 14th. I leave the other issues like mental toughness, ring “I.Q.”, heart, adaptability, versatility, defense, or wear-and-tear mileage/toll to experts like you to elaborate on because I believe both warriors have comparable boxing skills to begin with.
Power – I suppose most of Cotto’s KO wins were compiled at 140lbs. He hasn’t KO’d big welters (e.g., Margarito, Mosley, Clottey). Quintana, Jennings, and Judah were not big, thick, elite welters when he fought them. If this statement suggests a way to measure Cotto’s present punching power as a welter, then I consider him as a very hard puncher at 140lbs. Now DLH was a weight-drained junior middleweight and became gun-shy especially in the later rounds when he fought Manny. And Hatton didn’t land enough, or wasn’t able to last long enough to land often, to determine whether Pacquiao could take a significant blow from a 140-pound puncher, let alone an elite welter like Cotto who’s a hard puncher. But Pacquiao showed a good chin against the best power-punching featherweights. If the Filipino icon is truly a “freak of nature” then Manny should be able to withstand the onslaught of Cotto, particularly because I look at this Puerto Rican warrior as someone who has the body of a 147-pounder but who, I think, only harbors a concussive punching power of a 140-pound bomber. That said, I surmise that Manny can take a bomb from a fellow junior welter puncher. And if light welters like Torres and Corley (as you said recently) hurt Cotto, Pacman surely will come Nov 14th.
I believe Pacman starts fast but in a smart way, showing full awareness of Cotto’s money punch from the very outset. Cotto fires back as Manny throws rapid 1-2 or 1-2-3 combinations to fend off an advancing, but moderately aggressive Cotto who wants to go inside and land a debilitating left hook to the body and uppercut to the chin. Pacquiao rapidly snaps his guard back to its position and moves quickly to his right before a slower Cotto can counter with a left hook. A typically accurate Cotto finds himself missing quite often with Manny’s in-and-out and lateral movements, along with frantic head movements as well.
It won’t take long before Manny’s quick, sharp right hooks to the head find their mark that make Cotto honest. Miguel resorts to boxing Pacquiao as though to win one round at a time and conserve the needed energy for the championship rounds. Especially because Cotto at some point recognizes that he cannot merely apply pressure and walk through this Filipino miniature storm whom he previously looked upon as a mere 126-pounder trying to invade his weight class to become the first seven-time world champ in seven different weight divisions in boxing history.
Cotto’s face looks busted in the middle rounds as he learns that this is not a slick Malignaggi or a speedster Judah he is fighting but a very unpredictable, unorthodox boxer-puncher who has a peculiar ring mobility buttressed with a remarkable foot speed. Manny humbles Cotto by proving to him that he’s a lot harder to figure out than Miguel originally thought when he was at ringside for the Pacquiao-Solis super feather bout back in April of 2007 at Alamodome , Texas.
Then it only takes a few rounds after Cotto starts to bleed in the middle rounds when referee Kenny Bayless has seen enough and waves off this fight in round 10 as Pacman continues to pound a retreating Cotto who now shows a sign of resignation written on his face as he clearly concedes to accept the second loss of his pro career at the hands of the smaller fighter he was determined to manhandle and beat decisively in order to silence and prove the critics wrong with regards to being a Margarito-inflicted “damaged goods”.
Manny Pacquiao once again shocks the entire boxing world with his latest fistic accomplishment, among them is a ducker named Floyd Mayweather Jr. who still doesn’t have a win over Cotto after years of campaigning at 147lbs.
-Karl Quizon
Karl,
Your prediction is very detailed and well thought out. I see this as the best case scenario for Pacquiao. I am sure this is how he and Freddie Roach dream and wish the fight will unfold this way.
I am more hesitant to say that Pacquiao will dominate from start to finish. No one has ever done that to Cotto, not even his conqueror Antonio Margarito. If you remember, Cotto was kicking the living crap out of Margarito in the first half of their bout until his stamina faded.
Cotto is underrated in many areas. His hand speed and punching accuracy are world class. But another area where he does not get enough credit is his ring intelligence. Cotto is a clever technician and can figure out how to get his punches through just about any type of defense. With that said, I can almost guarantee that Cotto will be able to land some clean power punches early. How Pacquiao reacts and responds to those punches will dictate the rest of the bout. Personally, I think that Manny will be able to survive those shots and go on to win the fight, however my confidence in that prediction is shaky.
Is Cotto Soft?
The huge fight between Miguel Cotto and Manny Pacquiao is less than a week away and many experts are now releasing their predictions for this fight. I was a bit surprised to see so many picking Pacquiao to win. From what I have seen, and this may not be accurate since I have not seen everyone’s picks, but it looks like about 80% of experts are going with Pacquiao. This is a super fight right? Usually super fights are supposed to be even, with the experts split down the middle.
How good can Miguel Cotto be if so many do not have faith in his ability as the bigger, stronger fighter? Is this proof that Pacquiao is taking an easy fight or is carefully choosing weak opponents that will make him look good?
-Rick
Rick,
Nothing could be further from the truth in regards to your question as to whether or not Pacquiao is ducking tough fights in favor of easy wins. Cotto was the best possible opponent out there since Mayweather was already tied up. I mean, who else could he have fought? The fact that so many experts are picking Manny to win despite fighting a great and naturally bigger foe has less to do with Cotto being a soft opponent and everything to do with Pacquiao’s greatness.
You can only be proven wrong so many times by one fighter before you start to believe that he really is one of the best of all time and is able to overcome seemingly insurmountable odds and challenges. Based on Pacquiao’s recent track record I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt here, and that is why I am going to pick Pacquiao to win.
By the way, to see all of the official predictions from the Ringside Report writers, check out the Team RSR fight picks that will be posted a day or two before the fight.
What To Expect With Cotto vs. Pacman
What kind of fight do you expect when Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao fights Miguel Cotto this Saturday? Do you see a calculated chess match? Do you see a bar room brawl? Is there a scenario you see as the most likely? What about least likely?
-Eric Ramirez
Eric,
This fight is as unpredictable as boxing matches come for a few reasons. First, Pacquiao is not a natural welterweight and whenever a boxer is moving up in weight you never know how he is going to react. Manny has some experience fighting at welterweight but that is not natural for him.
Second, Cotto’s sole loss to Antonio Margarito is in question because of Margarito’s cement glove scandal. How much did the doctored gloves come into play? Some people may be too low on Cotto because of that loss when the gloves could have been the only reason Miguel lost.
Third, both Pacquiao and Cotto are multi-dimensional fighters. In most super fights you have a very good idea how the fight will turn out. For example, Floyd Mayweather is always going to box, Bernard Hopkins is always going to be tricky and fight rough, Juan Manuel Marquez is always going to try to counter punch, Ricky Hatton is always going to try to maul, etc. This is not the case with Manny and Miguel. They are equally as comfortable boxing as they are slugging. They both have the offensive ability to be seek and destroy killers, but they also have the skill sets and experience to back pedal and win a decision on their toes.
I am eager to see what strategy each one decides to employ. Both men are usually aggressive from the opening round and are fast starters. However knowing that about each other may make them take more of a defensive, counter punching approach. A rare but possible outcome is that both men are trying to be cute defensively and this turns into a tactical chess match.
A more likely scenario is that they come out firing like they usually and slug for a bit to try to assert their dominance. Pacquiao, being the smaller man, will probably jump in and out, using his speed to avoid return fire. If Manny finds success doing this then Cotto would do well in a counter punchers role, trying to time Pacquiao coming in.
There are just so many variables and different scenarios. I would not be surprised if either man were to win via 1st round knockout. I would not be surprised if either man were to win with a late round TKO or a decision. All outcomes are within reason with this match up and that cannot be said about most other boxer matches. The most likely outcome, I think, is a late round Pacquiao stoppage, taking advantage of Cotto’s questionable stamina.
Top Weight Classes
Hi again Brian,
I don’t know if you agree with me but I noticed that throughout the years, the weight divisions where the most talented and popular fighters reside are as follows:
1. Heavyweight (at least until the Tyson era) 2. Welterweight 3. Middleweight 4. Lightweight
I don’t know why the Light Heavyweight and Cruiserweight divisions are not really that talent-packed when in fact Americans and Europeans (or most races except Asians), being tall and largely built are (or should be) comfortable in the 165-195lb divisions. Poor Roy Jones, he could have been tested against so many quality oppositions, the likes of Chavez, Mayweather, Pacquiao, Duran, Ali, Tyson, Hearns, Leonard, De La Hoya, Tszyu, Arguello, etc., if he had been a little smaller. Any thoughts?
-Morse
Morse,
The last decade or more has not been a particularly strong light heavyweight era. However, there have been many very talented light heavyweights to come along in boxing history. You have the likes of Gene Tunney, Bob Foster, Archie Moore, Ezzard Charles, Billy Conn, Tommy Loughran, Michael Spinks, John Henry Lewis, etc. The light heavyweight division has a long history of great champions. In my opinion, they are on par or even surpassing some of the divisions that you mentioned.
The cruiserweight division, not so much. That division is relatively new however, having started in the late 1970’s/early 1980’s. The only great cruiserweight champion in history is Evander Holyfield.
The problem with these divisions, especially with cruiserweight, is that the fighters are tempted by money to move up to the heavyweight division. Heavyweights get paid much more than light heavyweights or cruiserweights. Instead of staying at their natural weight and building their legacy, the fighters chase the money to get roughed up in the heavyweight division. This inevitable jump to the heavyweight division usually ends bad and can damage a legacy. For example, Michael Spinks is known for being the guy that got demolished by Mike Tyson instead of the dominant king of the light heavyweight division.
If more of the top champions in those weight classes decided to stay put and dominate for the duration of their career, then those divisions would get more respect. Instead they are treating light heavyweight and cruiserweight as a minor league for the heavyweight division.
Mythical Round Robin Tournament
Brian,
Please give me an assessment of the following mythical tournament: Mike Tyson, David Tua, James Toney, Joe Frazier, Rocky Marciano, Roy Jones, say at heavyweight or cruiserweight assuming all are in their prime. Who would win? Thanks again and more power.
Morse
Morse,
I would probably pick Mike Tyson to win that round robin. You list three of the legendary heavyweight champion crouch fighters: Joe Frazier, Rocky Marciano, and Mike Tyson. Crouch fighters fight from a crouch in order to stay compact for defense and also get the most power out of their punches. These types of boxers are very aggressive and offensive-minded, meaning that we would get some serious brawling going on. Tyson, Frazier, and Marciano were all similar in style and stature so the reason I go with Tyson is that I think that he was the most physically talented of those three when he was in his prime. Marciano and Frazier would try to engage Mike in a fire fight and that is a battle they would not win.
As for the others, I don’t think that Toney and Jones would be able to hang with the heavyweight legends because of their weight disadvantage. Both were best suited as middleweights or light heavyweights. Toney and Jones were able to have success at heavyweight in the late stages of their careers due to careful matchmaking and a weak heavyweight division.
David Tua could give some trouble as well because out of all of the candidates, he had the best chin and was probably the hardest hitter (even over Tyson). The reason I still like Tyson in a fight with Tua is that Tyson had huge edges in defense, speed, technique, and footwork. In an all out brawl however, Tyson would have his hands full against Tua!
Those would be some really terrific fights to watch!
Thanks for reading everyone. Have fun watching Pacquiao vs. Cotto.
