Hello and welcome to my boxing mailbag. Before I jump into the emails, let me remind you and give you a preview of a terrific weekend of fights happening this Saturday. On the weekend before the super fight of Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto we have three major matches.
For the WBA Heavyweight Championship, David Haye challenges the Russian giant Nikolay Valuev in Germany. The winner of this intriguing bout will be the prime target of Vitali Klitschko in the Klitschko brother’s attempt to swoop up all four of the major belts.
In a much-desired rematch between, arguably the two best light heavyweights in the world, Chad Dawson will attempt to fend off Glen Johnson again. Dawson is obviously hoping not to take nearly as much damage as the last time. Dawson, who won a contested decision against Johnson last year, has youth on his side and is considered the future of the division. A definitive win for Chad would thrust him into pound for pound consideration.
Finally, in a heavyweight fight of the MMA variety, Fedor Emelianenko will take on Brett Rogers live on CBS Saturday night. This is a curious experiment to see if they can duplicate the huge ratings that Kimbo Slice vs. James Thompson pulled last year. I hope fans take advantage of this opportunity to watch an elite fight for free.
I touch on the MMA fight, Pacquiao vs. Cotto, pound for pound lists, and mythical match ups among other topics in this week’s mailbag. I hope you enjoy and don’t be shy about emailing me your opinions and questions. Thanks for reading.
Mailbag Worthy
Brian,
First off, thank you for finding most of my boxing emails or post-commentaries as mailbag-worthy. I like your comments regarding the UFC incident where Machida seems to be a rising star MMA fighter who needs to be protected by the corporation-like UFC. I hope the UFC would resolve this ASAP in order to avoid the kind of mess that boxing is in right now.
I also admire your blatant recognition that defensive fighters are now being privileged in most of the judges’ scoring tendencies and yet the boxing world can’t do something to correct it. That shows how broad-minded you really are because I know you’re a hardcore boxing fan, boxing scribe, boxing expert ho, needless to say, truly appreciates the finer, subtle qualities of the “Sweet Science” and yet you know exactly and can readily empathize with what the casual, general fight fans or sports followers/enthusiasts expect and want in a prize fight or a boxing match.
I’m also 100% with you regarding Nonito Donaire. As much as I like and admire him, Nonito simply remains to be untested. He has so much talent but no one at this point can be so certain about that until he begins to step up on the level of his opposition. For instance, what would happen if he would face a 115-lb version of JuanMa Lopez someday? I mean someone who has excellent fundamentals with a concussive punching power at the same time. So hands down, you’re right!
You always amaze me with the way you consistently show good reason and intelligent boxing assessments. For instance, unlike some so-called “scribes” from other boxing websites, where most of them simply dismiss Pacquiao’s victories over De La Hoya and Hatton like shit, you’re one of the rarest writers who knows how to balance things out. I was also thrilled to learn that you consider Cotto’s struggle or trouble when he fought Ricardo Torres at 140lbs during their battle of attrition a few years back as a very relevant and helpful way of anticipating how the Pacquiao-Cotto fight would pun out and Pacman’s chances over a naturally bigger, younger, and stronger Cotto. Especially because I saw the Cotto-Torres light welter bout.
Some writers are so lame saying again and again that Manny will finally “choke” on this one, the first, true welter chunk down his throat! I mean there’s a grain of truth in that one but to say it with conviction that there would be no way Pacquiao can hurt Cotto is pure BS to me. It’s so prejudiced, blind, and stupid to say that nowadays. Like you, I believe Manny may not be able to put Cotto down for the count, but Pacman has already demonstrated that he can hurt bigger guys and keep them honest. Cotto can’t stream roll Pacman like a freight train because Pacquiao will viciously fire back with pure ferocity, volume, conviction, and velocity. And he will make Cotto think because Manny’s punches will have a sting on Cotto and the Puerto Rican might appear befuddled with Pacquiao’s dizzying speed, in and out movement, side-to-side movement. Let’s remember that Pacman is more agile and athletic than Cotto. Do I say that Cotto has no chance for an upset? Of course not. Thanks for the time, Brian!
-Karl Quizon
-Karl,
Great email, I really appreciate your support for my mailbag and for my comments from last week.
Nonito Donaire has one golden star on his record right now and that is Vic Darchinyan. Everyone else has been a second tier or below fighter. I need to see him fight another top notch opponent before I comfortably place him with the pound for pound elite, even though based on talent alone he already belongs there. Boxers have to prove their ability in the ring and earn their rankings. That is the only way to fairly rank boxers. I would like to see Donaire fight Fernando Montiel, Alexander Munoz, Hozumi Hasegawa, Yonnhy Perez, Joseph Agbeko, Daisuke Naito, Pongsaklek Wonjongkam, or even a rematch with Vic Darchinyan. All of those would be solid match ups against the upper tier of the divisions at or around super flyweight. Quality opposition is present. It is up to Donaire to seek it out.
And yes, I stand by my statement that I absolutely think that Pacquiao can hurt Cotto. He might even be able to knock him out. Cotto was badly hurt against Ricardo Torres as you said, but he was also buzzed against DeMarcus Corley. Corley was not known as a particularly hard puncher either, proving that the way to hurt Cotto is with a well-timed, well-placed punch rather than a hit from a powerful big guy.
Cotto has shown vulnerabilities many times in his career. His stamina has also been tested. Lovemore N’dou made him sweat in the closing rounds of their fight. So did Shane Mosley, Joshua Clottey, and obviously Antonio Margarito.
Miguel is very beatable despite being a phenomenal fighter. Pacquiao although undersized, with the right game plan, is big enough to keep Cotto honest and do damage. I expect a terrific battle with heavy blows exchanged.
1999 vs. 2009 Pound For Pound
Hi, Brian it’s me again. I guess the P4P ranking 10 years ago (October 99), especially rank 6 to 10 had more savvy than today. Here is the list:
THE RING’s current pound-for-pound top 10 for October 2009: 1. Manny Pacquiao 2. Floyd Mayweather 3. Shane Mosley 4. Bernard Hopkins 5. Juan Manuel Marquez 6. Nonito Donaire 7. Miguel Cotto 8. Celestino Caballero 9. Israel Vazquez 10. Rafael Marquez
And here’s THE RING’s pound-for-pound top 10 for October of 1999: 1. Roy Jones 2. Floyd Mayweather 3. Felix Trinidad 4. Oscar De La Hoya 5. Shane Mosley 6. Mark Johnson 7. Ricardo Lopez 8. Erik Morales 9. Bernard Hopkins 10. Steve Johnston
I give much respect to Mayweather for staying at the 2 spot 10 years apart. This only proves how talented and well preserved he was until now. I commend also Sugar Shane and Hopkins for staying in top 10 over a decade. Talent wise, I give slight edge for the top five of October 2009 than the top five of October 1999.
Overall in my opinion, top 10 of 1999 had slight edge to top 10 of 2009. The guys rated from 6 to 10 of 2009 made the difference. Donaire over Johnson? It’s funny to think that Johnson is the most underrated of the top 10 in 1999. Who would you favor Brian? Cotto over Lopez? Young El Terrible over overrated Caballero? What about young Hopkins and Johnston of 1999 over damaged Vasquez and Marquez?
I admit, I’m becoming antagonist lately but it is always fun to play devil’s advocate. I would gladly appreciate if you make your own comparison Brian especially the prime Roy Jones over the present version of the Pacman and other top 10 in terms of skill.
I also do not think this era is weak for boxing; the only problem is that the best don’t fight the best. So experts will resort to eye test even if over a poor quality opponent.
Thank you,
-Sam
Sam,
If you are talking about talent alone then the two lists are about the same. However if you are talking about accomplishments then the 1999 list is an easy slam dunk over the 2009 list. You were on the right track saying that the best don’t fighter each other enough anymore.
Out of the comparisons that you gave me I would easily rank Ricardo Lopez over Miguel Cotto, Erik Morales over Celestino Caballero and Bernard Hopkins over Israel Vazquez. The only one where I go with 2009 is Rafael Marquez over Steve Johnson. These are, of course, all in terms of accomplishment, not necessarily skill. As for your skill comparison of Roy Jones vs. Manny Pacquiao, I think they are comparable but I rank Pacquiao much higher in terms of all time greatness because of his superior opposition.
Let’s say that we pooled the talent from both years together, this is the list I would come up with:
1. Manny Pacquiao ’09 2. Floyd Mayweather ’09 3. Roy Jones ’99 4. Floyd Mayweather ’99 5. Felix Trinidad ’99 6. Oscar De La Hoya ’99 7. Shane Mosley ’99 8. Ricardo Lopez ’99 9. Mark Johnson ’99 10. Shane Mosley ’09 11. Bernard Hopkins ’09 12. Erik Morales ’99 13. Bernard Hopkins ’99 14. Juan Manuel Marquez ’09
I would go to 15 but there are unranked guys from 1999 who I would put above the rest of the squad from 2009. Ike Quartey, Fernando Vargas, Marco Antonio Barrera, and maybe even Naseem Hamed would be ranked higher than a relative newcomer like Nonito Donaire.
So again, the top two current guys (Pacquiao and Mayweather) are very strong. After that the campaigns of the rest after the top two drop off considerably. And like we both touched on, this is not a weak era. The best are not fighting each other as much anymore.
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
Brian,
I’m kind of stoked about the Strikeforce event this weekend for a couple reasons. First, I think Fedor is the best heavyweight in MMA and he is going against a really good challenger in Brett Rogers. But more importantly, I am excited that this show will be free on CBS. A good fight that is not on Pay Per View? That is almost too good to be true!
Who do you like in this fight and why?
-Victor
Victor,
That is correct. This Saturday, November 7th, the best that Strikeforce has to offer will be on prime time network television. Though the UFC is MMA’s premier league, Fedor Emelianenko refuses to sign on board and Showtime/CBS’s was more than happy to swoop him up to replace their former ratings magnet Kimbo Slice.
I think that Emelianenko is going to defeat the very strong but moderately skilled Brett Rogers. I agree with you that Fedor is the best heavyweight in the world. There is no denying his long and impressive track record. He has already beaten a handful of challengers who were better than Brock Lesnar ever will be during his days as Pride’s champion.
The only chance that Rogers has at the upset is if Fedor is finally succumbing to age and is past his prime. To be very honest, I hope that is the case and Fedor loses. The heavyweight kingpin has made it clear that he will not sign with the UFC so there is no hope of every crowning a universally recognized MMA heavyweight champion while Emelianenko is still undefeated. Now if Brett Rogers wins, I am sure that the UFC would easily swoop him up and stick him in against Lesnar, giving the fans exactly what they want and giving the UFC a blockbuster heavyweight fight.
Cotto Southpaw Surprise
Hi Brian,
Do you think Cotto will go southpaw on Manny?
I haven’t heard this idea yet from anyone but I think this will be his secret come fight night. I know that Cotto is a natural lefty fighting orthodox that’s why he has a strong left hook. If Cotto does this do you think this will have an effect on the fight and Mannys’s performance? Can Cotto pull off the upset with that strategy?
My Pacquiao wishlist: 1. vs De La Hoya – check 2. vs Hatton – check 3. vs Cotto – check 4. vs Marquez 3 – ummmm still is in my wishlist 5. vs Mayweather – hope we someday get to see this
Thanks,
-Caloy
Caloy,
Manny didn’t have any trouble at all with the last southpaw he faced (David Diaz). The surprise factor of fighting a southpaw when you aren’t expecting it would only work for a little while against a seasoned veteran like Pacquiao. He would adjust and then that surprise would work against Cotto.
I think this strategy would back fire. Miguel should do what he knows and does best. Switching up your approach on short notice in the biggest fight of his career is a risky move, and I would say an unwise move. Now, if Pacquiao had shown susceptibility against southpaws in the past then maybe this would work, but he has not.
I’m still hoping that the final part of your wish list comes to fruition!
Pacman Making Weight
What’s up Brian,
Whether or not you publish this question is up to you, but I would very much like an educated answer if you are able to provide one. Now from one of the online articles that I read about the Pacquiao-Cotto showdown, it said that Roach expects Manny to be only 140 lbs during the weigh in, but he could weigh 148 or 149 during the fight. Now the question I have is why would Pac go down all the weigh to 140 for a fight at 145, and put on 8 or 9 pounds after the weigh in? Wouldn’t it be more logical to come in a 144 or 145, then add a few pounds after?
I noticed he did the same thing before the De La Hoya fight (weighed in at 138 for a 147 limit fight, then added about 10 lbs after re-hydrating), so I’m wondering if there is any strategy behind this? I’m really looking for a logical explanation for something which seems very counter-intuitive. Any input would be appreciated.
-Reggie
Reggie,
That is a very good question and I don’t have the answer for sure. You are right that losing that much weight before the weigh in when he doesn’t have to does not make much sense. I can think of a couple possible reasons why he might do this. One is he is in a routine of cutting weight before a fight so he does not want to disrupt his routine. That could affect him for this fight and future fights if he loses his routine.
Second is that restricting fluids is a main reason why Pacquiao always looks ripped like a super hero when he weighs in. This could be an intimidation factor. Lastly, not having to stress about the weigh in because you are going to make weight by a very large margin can give a fighter a mental edge over one who is worried about making weight instead of worrying about the fight. That’s all I can really think of.
Pacman Making Weight 2
I think you hit the nail right on the head. Your theory about his weight cutting routine does make sense, and now that you brought in up, I recall Freddie stating that if Pac were ever if fight Marquez again it would be at 140lbs. This leads me to believe that Freddie wants Manny to be ready to comfortably make the junior welterweight limit “just in case.” Much appreciation for your response. Keep doing what you’re doing duke.
-Reggie
Reggie,
Good point. Going back down in weight once you’ve gone up is very difficult as history has shown.
Pacquiao vs. Diaz Redux and Heavyweights
Hi Brian,
This is my second email since I got hooked on your column. I remember the last time I asked you how Pacquiao would fare against Juan Diaz (then undefeated) and you said you were inclined to favor Diaz. Any reassessment this time? Say, at junior welterweight.
The heavyweight division still sucks now Brian. What could boxing do to make it as interesting as before? I was really hoping David Haye to make waves but until now the big men’s division is still as exciting as a sleepy classroom.
Thanks for your time and more power! By the way, I love your mythical match up analysis, brief but right on the dot.
-Morse
Morse,
Thanks for emailing me again.
Yeah, my prediction for Juan Diaz vs. Manny Pacquiao has changed since you last emailed me (must have been a while ago!). At that time I was still unsure whether or not Pacquiao could handle the lightweight division since he had been gaining weight so rapidly. Since then, Manny has passed up the lightweight division and has found success even at welterweight. That is shocking for someone who started his career at flyweight.
Knowing what I know now about how Pacquiao handles his current weight, I would pick Manny to knock out Juan Diaz in the middle to late rounds.
The heavyweight division is boring because of the lack of intriguing talent. The Klitschko brothers are very good and I think they would hold their own in any era. The problem is that there is a huge drop off in talent after those two. David Haye and Alexander Povetkin are the only young contenders who pose any kind of threat, but even they don’t pose enough of a threat to excite people if they matched up against he Klitschko brothers.
Unfortunately I don’t see any exciting prospects or any major talent at the amateur level to break this trend. Nor do I see any contenders that would combine with a Klitschko to make a blockbuster fight. Maybe David Tua fighting for a title would turn some heads?
Let’s hope that David Haye makes a statement against Nikolay Valuev and then calls out the Klitschkos so that we have a half way decent heavyweight fight to look forward to.
All About Nonito Donaire
Sir Brian,
Greetings!
Thank you for sparing some of your time to answer my email. Thanks also to Sam for his response. I hope you didn’t include me as one of those fans who “always think weight classes do not matter” because I assure you, I am not one of them. In fact, I believe that it was Rafael Concepcion’s “two weight-class” advantage over Nonito Donaire that prevented the previous from going down and I think that guy had power. If you watched that fight, Donaire was caught with so many hard punches from a guy more than four pounds heavier than him at weigh-in (You could only imagine during fight night).
To remind you, every pound in the lower weight classes matter, but Donaire never fell. I am not saying Rafael Marquez is not tough either. Now if you consider Rafael Marquez as tougher than Donaire because he is in a higher weight class, does this mean that Hatton is tougher than Rafael Marquez simply because he is heavier? I don’t think so.
-Reagan
Reagan,
Thanks for your retort. I suppose we will have to agree to disagree about the dreamed up Nonito Donaire vs. Rafael Marquez match. I still have Marquez in that one despite your best efforts to persuade me otherwise but it would surely be a fun one to watch.
A Few Predictions
Hi Brian,
I want to know your opinion about Cotto and Margarito meeting for a 2nd time (this time Margarito without loaded gloves LOL) Who do you think will win this time? Will you go for Cotto or it will still be the same fight?
And also again my favorite part of questions: How do you see the results of these fights.
1. Undertaker vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr.(Wrestle Mania event) Will Floyd ends Undertaker’s winning streak? 🙂
Back to boxing, (assuming these fighters are in their prime) 2. Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Roberto Duran 3. Roberto Duran vs. Carlos Ortiz(Elorde’s Conqueror) 4. Ricky Hatton vs. Juan Manuel Marquez at 140 5. Joan Guzman vs. Edwin Valero at 135 or 140 6. Edwin Valero vs. Michael Katsidis 7. Manny Pacquiao vs. Undefeated Hatton (Floyd always boast that he beat the undefeated Hatton) and how many rounds?) 8. Muhammad Ali vs. Mike Tyson
Thanks Brian!!
-Rab
Rab,
The outcome of a proposed but unlikely rematch between Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito is a big mystery because of this question: Exactly how much did Margarito’s cement wrapped hands have to do with his championship success? If you pushed me for an answer I would say that Cotto survives a late rally by Margarito to win a close decision.
Here are my quick picks for your other mythical match ups:
1 – Mayweather wouldn’t partake in a wrestling match unless he was the arranged winner. 2 – Duran roughs him up against the ropes and wins a decision. 3 – This is a very good match up between two all time greats but I think Duran wins due to his edge in punching power. 4 – Marquez is too technical and durable, accurate sharpshooter. I think he survives some rough spots early and counter punches his way to a late round TKO over Hatton. 5 – Guzman by decision over Valero. Guzman has a good chin and far better boxing skill. 6 – Katsidis would be too aggressive for his own good and get KO’d by Valero. 7 – Pacquiao would beat Hatton the same if Hatton were undefeated or not. 8 – Ali could survive Tyson early and then frustrate him late, winning by decision.
You’ll Never Look at Ellerbe The Same Way
Hi Brian,
Are you bored? Watch this clip:
Oh My!
Thanks! -Sam
Sam,
Classic video. Thanks for the heads up.
Okay folks. That concludes my mailbag for this week. Take care and have fun eating all of your Halloween candy.
Be sure to enter RSR’s contest to win a free gift basket by picking the winner of Manny Pacquiao Vs Miguel Cotto.
Also, you can pick the winner on RSR’s online poll as well located on the home page.
