I have a feeling that Manny Pacquiao is going to get knocked out. I previously predicted Cotto by 11th round stoppage, and I’m sticking with that for now. First off, I should probably state that Manny Pacquiao is currently my favorite fighter. I love his all action style, and I generally enjoy his demeanor and charitable attitude outside the ring. I think Manny’s accomplishments the past few years have been very good for boxing, and exciting for fight fans like us. He’s winning in spectacular fashion and on the cusp of unfathomable greatness; a world title in a record, 7th weight class. That’s all amazing stuff, but I’m starting to get shaky feeling about Manny’s upcoming battle against Cotto.
COACH ROACH AND THE TRAINING
Freddie Roach has seemed a little snippy and whiny leading up to this fight. First off, he and Manny haggled forever with the Cotto camp over the purse and weight requirements. This wasn’t too severely surprising, because it wouldn’t be a Manny fight without some drama regarding negotiations or dealing with promoters. But I was hoping for things to go a little more smoothly this time, with less “fight is on, fight is off” silliness. Recently Roach has started complaining about which referee will be handling the bout, and objecting to a Hispanic like Joe Cortez. Roach has also begun some complaining about Cotto’s alleged tendencies to foul–which is fine–but it’s a little much to start demanding an immediate disqualification during the biggest fight in recent years. What is Roach so stressed about?
However, what really gave me cause for concern was when I found out Manny planned to open his camp in his native Philippines. As the most in demand man in his country, I thought this idea was pretty nuts. It’s especially perplexing considering how successful Manny was training in the U.S. for his last two fights. Cotto is by far the biggest challenge of Manny’s career, so it would make sense for him to keep with a program that has been working for him, and avoid the distractions at home. Roach wanted to have camp in either the U.S. or Vancouver. He lost the battle, and traveled over to Manny’s homeland to get his guy ready for the fight of his life. Is Roach losing influence over Manny?
The idea to train in the Philippines turned out to be pretty disastrous. Besides the distractions, the islands were hit with some of the worst rainstorms in their history. The national emergency caused Manny to interrupt his training on numerous occasions. The social service and charitable demands of the disaster also put added stress on the camp. I’m not saying Manny needed to pull a Nostradamus and foresee the storms, but if he wasn’t there, his camp wouldn’t have been as affected. He shouldn’t have been there based on the reasons I discussed earlier i.e. distractions, and why mess with a good recent pattern?
The first episode of HBO’s 24/7 has me convinced that there are some serious problems going on, and the fistfight between the wannabe cornermen is the least among them. I have recently read that Roach is unhappy with how camp has gone in regards to Manny’s sparring. Apparently, Manny is horsing around too much and letting his sparring partners tear into him on the ropes. Roach is angry that Manny isn’t taking this most daunting challenge against Cotto more seriously. One segment that displayed this problem was Manny playing basketball. First off, Manny has a pretty decent game and ballhandling skills. Secondly, what in the blue hell is he doing out there. One turned ankle, and the fight is postponed. One torn ligament or broken bone, and the fight is off. Roach asked Manny to lie off of the b-ball inside of four weeks before the fight, but Manny was out there anyway doing his best Asian A.I. impression. Roach acted a tad bemused, but I’m sure he must have been furious under the surface.
The segment from the first episode of 24/7 that really made me think that the Roach-Manny union could be nearing an end was when Roach approached Manny about leaving the Philippines sooner to avoid being stuck in more storms. Roach was adamant about leaving, but Manny wanted to wait it out a little longer, and enjoy more time at home. Things reached such a boiling point that Roach threatened to resign. I couldn’t believe it when Roach interrupted a meeting between Manny and a local politician to address the “let’s get the eff out of dodge” issue. Although Roach may have been right about the need to leave, I thought he handled the situation poorly and embarrassed Manny in front of an important figure. It could have waited until after the meeting. I noticed Manny’s raised eyebrows of annoyance and surprise. Roach got his way, but I wonder if this may be a key episode leading to the ultimate dissolution of the most successful team in boxing today.
NOW WHAT?
At the time of this writing, Manny and Freddie are back in the States and working hard at the Wild Card Gym. I’m very anxious to see how things play out in the next few episodes of HBO’s 24/7. I’m also looking forward to Roach’s upcoming quotes in the media.
In my next edition of Fight Lover’s Forum, I’ll focus on how things are going with Miguel Cotto; the strong, proud, champion who started training a full month before Manny got going. I’ll also republish the boxing-related reasons why I think Manny is looking at a loss via late stoppage. Again, I hope I’m wrong because this Pacquiao ride into legend territory has been fascinating and good for boxing. He and Roach have created something really beautiful together. However, I see signs of serious trouble. Maybe Manny is starting to buy too much into his own hype. Maybe Roach has become too overbearing. Perhaps it’s just time the two go in a different direction. It could be, that I’m way off base, and everything is everything. I’ll just write, as of right now, I see Pacquiao losing a heartbreaker, and I don’t see Roach in his corner for his next fight.
