He’s like a weatherman in that he is predicting a Manila Ice storm at the MGM Grand Hotel on Nov. 14.
And he is like a bear hunter who has set out a trap for Miguel I’m No Angel Cotto.
I don’t know exactly how you would label a combination meteorologist-bear hunter but his name is Coach Freddie Roach.
The grandmaster of pugilistic psychology is using the Dedham, Mass., Reverse play on Cotto and his inexperienced camp now.
Roach has set out his bear bait by boldly stating that, unless the proud Puerto Rican runs, Manny Pacquiao will knock him out in the very first round of their scheduled 12 round welterweight title bout.
THIS GEM OF A ROACH VERBAL FORAY WAS REPORTED BY RENE BONSUBRE JR. AT THE EXCELLENT PHILBOXING.
Roach’s comments were dripping with honey but he’s not dealing with 1970s middleweight journeyman Eugene “Honeybear” Bryant here, he’s dealing with a ringwise Cotto.
On the face of it, you would like to think that Cotto blocks out the “white noise” from Roach and that his entourage does the same. On the other hand, Cotto is nothing if not macho and you wonder if this first round disaster forecast has gotten under his skin.
SEE DIGITAL JOURNAL, WHERE AREL AVENASA ALSO THINKS COACH ROACH IS TRYING TO MENTALLY WHIP THE PERHAPS OVERLY SENSITIVE COTTO.
If it’s the latter, then it could be Mission Accomplished for the always tactical Roach.
There is both method and madness in Roach’s latest ploy.
You see, boxing cult figure Johnny Bos sees Cotto as being most vulnerable in the first two or three rounds but then gives him a great chance to beat Pacman past that point.
Bos theorizes and has stats to back it up that lefthanded bangers such as Megamanny most often register early round KOs because it takes a non-southpaw some rounds to adjust to punches coming at him “the wrong way.”
The Bos Theory is borne out in Pacman’s overall ring log. If my math is correct, Pacquiao has notched 25 of his overall 37 knockouts within the first five rounds.
Manny has had 54 pro bouts over 290 rounds, 66 of them championship rounds. The average length of his collective bouts is 5.3 rounds.
I started with the May 2 KO 2 over Ricky Hatton and went all the way down to Pacman’s pro debut.
My count shows six first round blastouts and seven in round two.
Packy has four third round terminations and five in the fourth round.
He has finished off three foes in the fifth round.
FOR THOSE SCORING AT HOME, THAT IS AN AMAZING 17 KNOCKOUTS IN THE FIRST THREE ROUNDS.
So the lucky number for Megamanny is 25 whackouts before the bell for round six ever sounded.
The smartest move Cotto could make, given this information, is to feel Pacman out for a round or two and then start pressing forward.
Unless, of course, Roach does not have an early assault in mind at all…
It’s a guessing game any way you slice it.
Does the Manila Ice Storm come right away or in the middle rounds?
Or does it come when Cotto may be sagging down the stretch run, let’s say from the eighth round onward?
Is Cotto smarter than the average bear?
We’ll know on Nov. 14.
All I know is that Roach is a hunter who rarely gets captured by the game.
