Holy cow, I was shocked on Saturday after watching David Tua vs. Shane Cameron. I was expecting the familiar old, overweight, washed up Tua to show up. That was not the case. Whenever someone had asked about Tua in the last few years I would respond by saying that David’s time had passed and that you might as well give up on him completely. I love David Tua as much as anybody. He is a blast to watch because of his unusual combination of attribute and pure power. But I am a realist, and based on his activity and form over the last few years, and his advanced age, there was no reason to believe he would ever bounce back.
Perhaps I was wrong. Tua may actually have something left in the tank, because he looked pretty damn good on Saturday. I compare his form against Cameron to his form against Michael Moorer in 2002. That version of David Tua has no chance to dethrone a Klitschko brother, but he still has the ability to shake up today’s top ten rankings.
Based on what I saw against Cameron, I would favor Tua to beat David Haye right now. Bring on the hate mail Haye fanatics.
Moving on to the mailbag, fans are hyped about Manny Pacquiao’s upcoming fight with Miguel Cotto, and many are already looked past Cotto towards a mega fight with Floyd Mayweather. In addition to the healthy dose of Pacquiao emails, I also cover a wide range of other topics. Please enjoy, and be sure to send in your emails to be used for next week’s mailbag.
Mayweather Scared?
Brian,
Here is a straight up question. Do you think Mayweather would like to fight Manny Pacquiao?
-byTKO
byTKO,
Yes I do. Mayweather loves money and Pacquiao presents him with the most lucrative option. Mayweather, for better or worse, is extremely confident (arrogant?) and truly believes that nobody can beat him. He isn’t scared of Pacquiao or anyone, so his decision on which opponent to fight is strictly a business decision made by his people.
Cotto vs. Judah As It Relates To Cotto vs. Pacquiao
Hi Brian,
This is my second time to write into your well-read mail bag, where boxing fan’s comments actually make sense. As I’m writing, I’m watching the Miguel Cotto vs. Zab Judah fight. I’m not an expert; I just think this is the best fight to watch when analyzing the Pacquiao vs. Cotto fight. I think Judah is a good fighter. He is a southpaw. Zab’s body in this fight is almost comparable to Manny’s except that Zab is taller.
I think this is one of Cotto’s best fights at welterweight. I like Miguel Cotto and everybody is right when they say that this is one of the hardest and most dangerous fights for Manny. Cotto is huge and throws punches in combinations. His combinations, accuracy and head movement make him look fast in his fights. I think for Cotto to win; relentless pressure is the key like he has always done. Cotto defeated Judah using relentless pressure, excellent combinations and hard body punches. He was able to cut-off the ring and corner Zab against the ropes. If Cotto can do this to Manny perfectly, I think he could win. Of course for Miguel to win he should conquer Manny’s early relentless attack which Hatton was not able to do.
On the other hand, Manny’s key to winning against Cotto is to fight Zab’s fight in the first round which I think Manny can do for 12 rounds. I just chose the first round because of the beautiful left hand counter punch. I think this punch hurt Cotto. I’m a Filipino and I would never bet against Manny. I always want Manny to win. But in all his recent big fights, I tried to watch fights of his opponents to somehow give me good reasoning on why Manny should win.
In his fight against Cotto, I think Manny would win. One of my reasons as what I’ve said is Manny can do what Zab did in the first round. Manny throws more punches than Zab. I don’t think Manny will stay on the ropes as Zab did because coach Roach won’t allow it and Manny listens to Roach.
My only question is whether or not Pacquiao can hurt Cotto like Zab did. I have no question about Manny’s power, however; Cotto has taken the punches of Mosley, Margarito and Clottey who are all much larger fighters than Manny is. I just want Manny to land the punch that Zab did and see if he could also hurt Cotto.
-Sean
Sean,
Cotto is a scary opponent for Pacquiao because of his size and power, but I agree with you that Pacquiao could duplicate Zab Judah’s early success against Cotto and carry that success into later rounds. I can see Pacquiao using his in and out boxing strategy to fire off hard combinations then avoid counter punches.
The key to Manny’s success is hurting Cotto. If he can badly hurt Cotto with his punches despite being naturally smaller, then he will win. I think Manny will be able to hurt Cotto, at least to some degree even if not enough to knock him down for the count.
Over-training in Camp
Hey Brian,
I just want to ask how long does it takes for a fighter to over-train? How could you spot an over-trained boxer during a fight? Is there such a thing as under-training?
Will Cotto be at risk of over-training due to his 12 week training program? That seems to be too long compared to Manny Pacquiao’s 8 week training program.
I’ve written to u about 5 times before and you’ve always given me a satisfying answer every time. Thanks so much Brian, God bless you and your family.
-Ace
Ace,
I appreciate your continued support of my mailbag.
The amount of training it takes to over-train a boxer is different for each guy. The trainer needs to know his fighter very well in order to know when to back off. Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto are legendary for their training camps. They can train harder than just about any other fighter in the world without getting burnt out. I am not worried about Cotto over-training. Another guy is Bernard Hopkins, who has been constantly training for the last 20 years. He has his body in such good shape that it is probably impossible for him to over-train.
Older fighters do not bounce back as well so they are more susceptible to overtraining. The goal is to push your body hard so that on fight night you are in peak physical condition and brimming with energy. Sometimes your peak comes and goes and your body is just tired.
Boxers who over-train appear sluggish and less reactive than normal. Take a look at Antonio Tarver’s fight against Bernard Hopkins for a good example.
Of course there is such a thing as under-training. A boxer will come in overweight and carrying around the extra weight cuts down heavily on your stamina. Look at Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Sturm for a good example.
Super Middleweight Mythical Match Ups
Hey Brian-
I’ve got some Super -Middleweight matchups for you:
1) Anthony Hanshaw vs. Edison Miranda 2) Allan Green vs. Andre Ward 3) Jermain Taylor vs. Allan Green 4) Librado Andrade vs. Carl Froch 5) Sakio Bika vs. Andre Dirrell 6) Lucian Bute vs. Jermain Taylor 7) Sam Soliman vs. Andre Ward
-Daniel “Tex” Cohen
Tex,
Those are really tough ones, and almost all are evenly matched. Here is my quick take on each:
1 – Miranda by KO because I am not that impressed with Hanshaw of late.
2 – Ward survives a knock down to win a decision.
3 – Taylor guts out a close, controversial decision relying on his championship experience.
4 – I think Froch has enough finesse to out-box the indestructible Andrade to win on points.
5 – Dirrell has more talent so he wins although nobody has an easy time with the rugged Bika.
6 – Bute, who probably should have been picked for the Showtime Super Six tournament, might be the best super middleweight in the world. He TKOs Taylor late.
7 – I love watching Soliman fight so I hate to say this, but I think he is washed up. Ward by impressive mid round KO.
Is Mayweather “Great”?
Floyd had a height and big reach advantage when he beat Marquez. The chance for Marquez to beat Floyd was to get in and hurt him, especially with body shots. Floyd knew that as well and that is why his strategy was to bulk himself up and come in heavier than 144 for the official weigh-in.
In the fight, Marquez tried to get in but he could not hurt Floyd because Floyd was too huge for his lightweight power. He also exposed himself to danger by forcing his way through an almost invincible Floyd defense. Marquez thought about it and just settled for a fight in distance which he knew he would lose. Marquez just wanted to keep up the fight and not get hurt.
I don’t think that kind of performance by Floyd he can beat Pacquiao. Floyd could not even KO Marquez. He needed that KO. He said that himself in 24/7 and he needs bigger bargaining leverage if he wants to fight Pacman.
I don’t admire Floyd’s skills. If people say that because of this Floyd performance against Marquez that he is going to beat Pacquiao, that is absolutely absurd. The best of Floyd won over a UD against the worst of Marquez while the best of Marquez lost a SD to one of the worst conditions of Pacquiao’s career because he was ready to move up in weight before that fight.
Floyd has had problems with southpaws and he knows the only way to beat southpaws if he is a better conditioned athlete, that is why he beat Judah, Corley and the rest. He knows that Pac will come in fight night far more conditioned than those fighters.
I have a strong feeling of how Pac will win against Floyd. Pac will circle on Floyd’s left to put Floyd in a position wherein his left jab is useless and his straight right is too awkward and far from the target. We bear in mind that Pac is a southpaw and has power with both hands. As Pac gets in with his fast feet he connects with shots which will put Floyd in a defensive shell. Pac pulls back a little because Pac is also a smart fighter. It is no use pushing himself to nothing. Then Pac again does the same and Floyd does the same also. Round after round the scenario will not change. Floyd might have some good straights and jabs coming, but Pac will connect much more because we all know that Pac’s punches come in bunches.
I feel that Pac will win a boring UD, even the most exciting fighters will be boring against Floyd. Don’t be overwhelmed by floyd, if he was that good he should face the elite welterweights because he has the size of an ideal welterweight. Now he has nowhere to run because even an elite light-welter in Pac would beat him. I consider Floyd feather-fisted. All the greats have power to hurt, no matter how great your defense is you also need a great offense and a great offensive boxer creates offense, unlike Floyd, who just sits and waits for mistakes.
A great boxer should be great in offense, defense and have power so I say I am sorry to all Floyd fans because Floyd does not qualify greatness for me.
-Jet G.
Jet,
You may not like his fighting style, but Floyd is already great (when I talk about greatness I am talking about top 200 or so boxers ever). His legacy at 130, 135, and 140 pounds secures his place in history. The wins against Hatton, De La Hoya, and Marquez just added icing to the cake.
Even with that said; I understand all of your points in criticizing Mayweather’s win over Marquez. I mostly agree with it. You have to put Floyd’s win into perspective and Marquez was a much smaller and older opponent who had not had time to adjust to his new weight.
When comparing Marquez’s fights against Mayweather and Pacquiao, in addition to all of the points that you made, you also have to know that styles make fights. Pacquiao’s style is tailor made to get trounced by a pure counterpuncher like Marquez, yet he still found a way to win. In defeating a boxer of Marquez’s caliber even when the styles match up was not in his favor demonstrated the true greatness of Pacquiao.
Mayweather’s defensive boxing style is the perfect style to defeat Marquez. He beat Marquez due to heavy advantages in style and size. I agree with you that comparing Pacquiao’s and Mayweather’s fights against Marquez is not a good way to analyze Mayweather vs. Pacquiao.
Still, I have a hard time buying into your fight breakdown. I am leaning towards Mayweather winning by decision. Pacquiao will not be able to move in and out against the extremely quick footed Mayweather. The exact opposite is more likely to happen. Pacquiao is so fast, talented, and unpredictable though that I can’t wait to see how he fairs.
Pacquiao Against De La Hoya Was History
Hi Mr. Brian!
This is the second time I have ever written to your mailbag. Congratulations on your bag by the way, because it is a very good one.
This time I just had one comment that I noticed from the time Pacquiao challenged Oscar De La Hoya. This is a follow up to the question Mr. John Doe asked you in your last mailbag. When Oscar accepted the challenge but Pacquiao didn’t like Oscar’s terms at first (regarding money). Oscar responded and said that if Pacquiao decide to fight him, it would put Pacquiao in the boxing history books and be remembered for generations.
And that is what he did. What can you say about this?
-Hilmex Fan
Hilmex Fan,
I think that was a good negotiating strategy by Oscar. Instead of offering more money he talked about “history” and “legacy” to get Pacquiao to give in. Oscar won the negotiating battle although it is hard to call Pacquiao a loser with the amount of money that he walked away with.
Overall it was a very smart move by Manny to take the fight. He has made up the money in subsequent fights as his marketability is much greater with the win over De La Hoya.
Z Gorres On Pacquiao vs. Cotto Undercard
Alas! Z Gorres will be fighting for a world title on the Pacquiao vs. Cotto undercard. Eric Morel is good, albeit the weakest link of the other bantam champions. The Fernando Montiel vs. Gerry Penalosa fight sucks, Montiel should be fighting Gorres while Penalosa must retire. He has done too much already for the sport.
-Sam
Sam,
Fernando Montiel is a top notch little guy be he has had many scares in the past. Although I agree that Gerry Penalosa should retire, Penalosa the tough old bugger, could make it interesting.
I don’t really care for the Z Gorres vs. Eric Morel fight. Morel is washed up and a scum bag. Gorres should beat him relatively easily. The only interesting factor is that, on the Pacquiao vs. Cotto undercard, there is a Puerto Rico vs. Philippines angle.
The overall undercard for Pacquiao vs. Cotto is terrible. Aside from the potential Gorres vs. Montiel bout you mentioned above, here is what you have tentatively:
Daniel Santos vs. Yuri Foreman – Two really boring fighters that will make for a horrible fight even if both are highly rated.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs. Troy Rowland – JCC Jr. going against yet anther hopeless journeyman. (yawn)
Jesus Soto Karass vs. Alfonso Gomez – Two over-celebrated fringe contenders.
When Top Rank put this undercard together it was like they were trying to hit as many demographics (Jewish, Puerto Rican, Mexican, Filipino) as possible instead of trying to make quality fights.
Still Can’t Believe How Bad Marquez Lost
Brian,
Great mailbag as always. Until now, I still couldn’t believe how Juan Manuel Marquez was nearly shutout by Floyd. He bested a fellow counterpuncher and a defensive boxer in Joel Casamayor a year ago and I got the feeling that perhaps JMM had that sort of mentality coming into his fight with Floyd recently. To be honest, I didn’t get the impression that JMM was pressing the fight and moving forward or working really hard to turn the tide in his favor, even in the later rounds. What I saw was a very typically patient, cool JMM who somehow had hoped for Floyd to commit mistakes and capitalize with openings. But Floyd doesn’t typically throw much or participate in trading or exchanging leathers because it’s not his style to offer his foes dangerous and unnecessary openings (as you said, “Floyd doesn’t know how to lose” so exchanging in wild abandon with Marquez was never an option for Floyd). As if JMM was waiting for Floyd to abandon his game plan and make him fight his fight. Or as though he was waiting for Floyd to fight from his heart and not from his head.
But JMM is a smart boxer. He should’ve known this beforehand that it would never happen because Floyd is so strong mentally as well. JMM thought he could counter Floyd’s counters as successful as he did against Casamayor. Or it’s possible that JMM thought he could outclass, or surprise or expose this black former p4p best fighter in the world in Floyd. If that was indeed his assumption prior to the fight, he paid a very bitter price in believing it so all along.
Floyd was indeed spot on, leading up to his fight with JMM, when he said, “Marquez knows how to fight, he knows how to win, but he’s stepping up in this fight with me.” JMM should’ve taken this very seriously. I got the feeling that JMM might have believed in his heart that he’s the best, and that JMM had looked upon Floyd as being regarded as the p4p no.1 fighter in the world prior to his 2008 retirement only by polls and popular opinions from the experts of the boxing community and he’s out to prove it otherwise last Sept 19th but, just like the previous 39 opponents of PBF, he fell short, really short down there in the scoring department. Make no mistake about it, I’m no JMM hater, in fact, I’ve come to admire Marquez so much that I felt disappointed with him in his latest outing against Floyd. Thanks man!
-Karl Quizon
Karl,
I admire your respect for Marquez and understand how you were disappointed by the end result against Mayweather.
However, if you watch the fight again without the emotion of watching it live I think you will see that Marquez was pressing the fight much more than he normally does. In the 3rd round, I think it was, Marquez trapped Mayweather against the ropes and landed a very good clean power punch. His uncharacteristic aggression is what caused him to have that little success. Now his problem was that he backed off and allowed Mayweather to escape. Perhaps he felt more comfortable in the center of the ring where he normally is in his comfort zone, however in this fight he should have tried to take away Mayweather’s legs.
I stand by my statement that Marquez was giving his all, being aggressive, and leaving everything he had in the ring. He was simply rendered ineffective by Mayweather. And size had A LOT to do with it.
The Other Pacquiao vs. Marquez
Bobby Pacquiao vs. Rafael Marquez just popped out of my hair and you nailed the reason for the match-up which is none other than family rivalry. Heard of the Shamrock-Gracie rivalry? This is boxing’s version of that.
Bobby has yet to show his true form. His greatness almost dazzled when he nearly floored Humberto Soto but something stopped him. Perhaps a victory at that time would have subjected his name for an early trouncing in the realm of politics and would’ve killed his 2022 bid for the presidency.
As for Mayweather’s padded record — a padded record compared to that of Pacquiao’s is indeed what I meant. Money Floyd did take easy routes though, like when he opted to fight the likes of Carlos Baldomir. Beating a great little man in Marquez, albeit, the performance was admirable, how can Floyd compare that to what his main rival has done recently? Pacquiao scaled the mountains up, down, and back up again beyond his natural weight to fight serious contenders. Pacman may not beat him when they fight, but in terms of achievement in the noble art, Manny Pacquiao wins all the glory.
SJ The Matchmaker! I wouldn’t mind being a matchmaker. If I would be granted the honor of such a task, these would be the match-ups I would give the world:
1. Brock Lesnar vs. Bob Sapp (I know Bob Sapp has been losing a lot lately but the old 150+ lbs of supplements Bob Sapp is a force to be reckoned with) 2. Manny Pacquiao vs. Joe Calzaghe (Can you imagine the fireworks this fight is capable of generating?) 3. Fedor Emelianenko vs. Nacho Libre (If anyone must be named the best they should first go through the greatest Lucha Libre fighter of all time) 4. Randy Couture vs. Ric Flair (Sure, Couture gets better when he ages but Ric Flair has long been old and is still seen as a boy) 5. Carlos Newton vs. Frank Shamrock (The world was robbed of this fight due to the old UFC’s poor officiating. What a fight it would’ve been though.) 6. Lyoto Machida vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. 7. Wladimir Klitschko vs. Andrei Arlovski 8. Dana White vs. Vince McMahon (The trash talking President vs. the evil Chairman – who wins?)
-SJ Jarapa
SJ,
I don’t knock Floyd Mayweather for fighting Carlos Baldomir. Baldomir, at the time, was the true and lineal Welterweight Champion because of his win over Zab Judah. Mayweather caught flack for fighting Judah instead of Baldomir, the guy who beat him. Floyd got fed up and answered the critics by fighting Baldomir too.
That is just one point however. Overall, I completely agree with you that Pacquiao has done more and that Mayweather probably could have done better. Manny’s resume is superior even if he ends up losing to Mayweather. I don’t think Floyd was ducking fighters necessarily, but he wasn’t actively pursuing the best fights like Pacquiao has done his whole career.
Another point, fighting the best available competition is sometimes not good enough if you come along in a weak era. To truly be one of the greatest of all time you have to be lucky to have other all time greats in your weight class at the same time in order to prove yourself against the best.
1. Sapp is a farce and, surprisingly, Lesnar is actually turning out to be pretty decent. Lesnar by 1st round KO. 2. Calzaghe is way too big for Pacquiao. Calzaghe by wide UD. 3. Nacho Libre…Really? I think I’m done with this email. LOL!
Klitschko vs. Klitschko and Prime RJJ vs. Calzaghe
Brian,
What’s up? Obviously Chris Arreola can take a punch. Anyone else would have been done sooner against Klitschko. I think Vitali would spank brother Wladimir and send him home crying to mom. He has a lot more stamina, has a better variety of punches, and doesn’t panic like his brother seems to do sometimes. Vitali could stay champ for a very long time it appears. It would be nice to see Haye try to fight him. His scrawny ass would not have the power to do anything against the giant.
One thing I thought that was very impressive was that Vitali threw 800 punches in 10 rounds (80per round). Marquez and Mayweather only threw 483 and 593 in 12 rounds (41 to 48 per round) and they are almost 100 pounds lighter than him. I was surprised too that his 38 yr old legs had the stamina to move that much. Also I think weight should be more of a factor in the alleged “pound for pound” title.
I realize the smaller guys are usually more exciting fights because of the speed and action and stamina because of the lighter weight but I think it’s more impressive to be able to take a punch from a big guy and still be able to throw a lot. I suppose when you’re a smaller fighter they still feel like big punches but they don’t just appear to be the same.
I’m not a fan of Joe Calzaghe at all but I always thought he should have been right at or the top fighter for those reasons. I know everybody rips on him too for fighting an old Roy Jones and Hopkins but who else was really out there who could have given him a fight? He did beat Kessler. One more thing. Would you agree at all that Joe Calzaghe would have still been a handful for Jones even in his prime just because or his unlimited stamina and amount of punches he throws?
See ya,
-Ackerman
Ackerman,
I agree with you that Vitali Klitschko would defeat his younger brother Wladimir Klitschko if the two ever fought. Wladimir is a very talented fighter but Vitali trumps him in many important categories. Vitali can take a better punch, has better stamina, has better poise, is more aggressive, is bigger, and may even hit harder. Wladimir’s edges in boxing ability, jab, and foot speed are less of a factor in the heavyweight division compared to the lower weight classes.
There are plenty of guys that Calzaghe could and should have fought during his long reign at super middleweight. From Sven Ottke to Glen Johnson to Dariusz Michalczewski to Eric Lucas to Anthony Mundine to Michael Nunn, the list could go on an on. At the end of his career Calzaghe stepped up his level of opposition by taking on Kessler and Hopkins, but there were others he could have gone after as well, especially instead of the washed up Jones. Chad Dawson, Jermain Taylor, Lucian Bute, Glen Johnson, and others were all willing and able to fight him.
So, would a prime Calzaghe still have been a handful for a prime Roy Jones? No way. Jones would have slaughtered Calzaghe. The fight would have been round one of the actual Jones vs. Calzaghe fight, round after round. Calzaghe would not have been able to hang with the ultra skilled technique and unearthly speed of a prime Roy.
Pacquiao vs. Cotto Comments
I’ve read that Miguel Cotto can handle Pacman’s speed because he handled Shane Mosley and Zab Judah, and they are both speedy fighters.
But Mosley and Judah only fight in spurts. They didn’t fight Cotto three minutes of every round for 12 rounds using their speed. Unlike Pacman, who would make Cotto fight every second for as long as it takes until Cotto runs out of stamina, which is a trademark of Cotto by the way.
What do you think? But I still consider Cotto a very dangerous opponent primarily because of his size and strength advantage and not for his supposed ability to fight a speedster.
-Vinjo
Vinjo,
A jab is the best way to handle speed. Cotto has a good one but not the kind that would disable every speedster he would ever face. Marco Antonio Barrera had a great jab but Pacquiao still crushed Barrera.
I don’t really even consider Shane Mosley to be that fast anymore. I see Shane as a savvy veteran fighter with slightly above average speed, average power, but excellent boxing ability and experience.
Judah is as fast of a fighter as you will ever see, but as you said, there are glaring flaws in his game that Cotto exploited. Pacquiao does not share those flaws with Judah.
The outcome of this fight will have less to do with speed, power, and all of the other ponderings that people have brought up and have more to do with skill, counter punching, and technique with regards to fighting on the inside. November 14th cannot come soon enough!
That is all I could fit into my mailbag for this week. Hope to see you back next week. Take care everyone!
