Vitali Klitschko has fully restored his pre-retirement status with yet another dominant win over a top ranked heavyweight. Klitschko battered Chris Arreola for ten complete rounds before referee Jon Schorle called the contest on Saturday night. I give credit to Chris for having heart and giving his all. At least people understood that he was trying his hardest, unlike Sam Peter, but Arreola was thoroughly outclassed.
My pre-retirement opinion of Vitali Klitschko was that he was the best heavyweight in the world, better than his younger brother Wladimir. I am amazed that at 38 years of age and two years out of the ring he was able to completely recapture his form. Vitali rarely loses a round and because of his sturdy chin never even has scary moments.
The question now is: Who out there is a worthy challenger to Vitali Klitschko? I know Vitali will want to go after the winner of Nikolay Valuev vs. David Haye for the WBA belt. Capturing the WBA would fulfill the Klitschko brother’s goal of having two of the four major belts each, at the same time.
And after that? There are not many stand outs in the heavyweight division, so Vitali may have to go back to his old hobby of trying to convince Lennox Lewis to come out of retirement.
Switching topics, in the weeks prior to Mayweather vs. Marquez I talked about the Pay Per View buy rate battles on the business end regarding that match. First, Mayweather was going head to head with UFC 103 that Saturday. The numbers are in and the boxing card did an impressive 1 million buys. The UFC card is rumored to have done around 500,000. Boxing, and Mayweather, won that round with a slam dunk. 1 million is a number that exceeded all expectations.
The second part of the battle is the battle between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather clearly showed that he is a marquee attraction with the money generated from his fight with Marquez. Prior to last Saturday, both Pacquiao and Mayweather claimed to be a bigger draw and that they should get the higher percentage of the purse split if they ever met. Both had equally compelling arguments as to why they should get more.
The PPV buy rate for their respective PPVs would be the ultimate leverage in negotiations. Mayweather is off to a great start with 1 million buys. Pacquiao will have to do more than that in November against Miguel Cotto if he wants to earn more than Mayweather. 1 million is a very tough number to reach so unless Pacquiao vs. Cotto is superbly marketed, Mayweather looks like he will have the upper hand in negotiations.
There is a ton about Pacquiao in this week’s mailbag, so Pacfans get ready. I talk more about the potential super fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, Pacquiao’s upcoming fight against Miguel Cotto, older brother Bobby, and more. I also correct my pound for pound list from last week, give my take on some mythical match ups, and more.
I hope you enjoy, and send in your emails to me for next week’s mailbag.
Early Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Picks
I’m a first timer in your very nice and well-read mailbag. My life is not complete without reading your column every Monday. As regards to Mayweather’s fight vs. Marquez on 9-19-09, I observed a lot of columnists, especially from England, who were praising Mayweather as great and impeccable defensive wizard and that Manny Pacquiao doesn’t stand a chance if ever the meet at welterweight.
As I’ve been a boxing enthusiast for quite a long time and have seen almost all the fights of Mayweather and Pacquiao, one thing I noticed that the Turtle Defense of Mayweather is always cracked and penetrated by boxers with southpaw stance ,i.e., Demarcus Corley (Mayweather was staggered a few times) and Zab Judah, who actually knocked down Mayweather and was winning in early rounds. Zab however, does not have focus and stamina to defeat Mayweather in the latter rounds. These columnists were basing their observation on Marquez vs. Pacquiao earlier, however, Pacquiao has evolved to be complete fighter – that is offense/defense, power, limitless stamina (Bunny Energizer) and quick feet which dart in and out, and pivots to his right side away from left hook and straight right. I conclude based on above premise that Pacquiao will defeat Mayweather if ever they meet at welter.
-Ernie Pep
Ernie,
Thanks for the email and the compliments of my column.
You know what? You make some great points. Almost enough to convince me that Pacquiao would win! Mayweather indeed had difficult moments against Corley and Judah. Judah especially had the fight in the bag if he had kept up his pace. Judah is known for fading down the stretch and losing his focus and edge mentally. Mayweather really did not like fighting someone who matched his speed. Pacquiao will be able to match his speed just like Judah did.
Pacquiao has all of the skills that Judah possessed, only he tends to get stronger as the fight goes on. I don’t want to make an official prediction on Mayweather vs. Pacquiao until after I see Pacquiao vs. Cotto. As of today I am slightly favoring Mayweather but I don’t want to commit to anything. Excellent email, you really made me question my line of thinking.
Bobby “Blow Blow” Pacquiao
It’s my first time writing in your ever famous mailbag, and first time to write in any kind of mail bags anyway..
Err…I tend to disagree with Mr. Posaz from last week. Bobby “The Sniper of Balls” Pacquiao is not famous here in the Philippines for the nickname “Low Blow”, but rather “Blow Blow”.
Why do these so-called boxing experts and boxing writers always change their minds and observations months after the fight? Like before the fight, they say De La Hoya will kill Pacquiao or Hatton has a good chance of beating Pacquiao, etc. After the fights I’ve read lots of praises and good articles from these writers about how Pacquiao performed.
But after months, you can see that they branded De La Hoya as weak, over the hill. Did Pacquiao or these so-called experts expect De La Hoya to be in that situation before the fight? Then why were the odds not in favor to Pacquiao? Then, Hatton becomes overrated and mediocre after a while..ssshhh..
When Mayweather and Pacquiao happen, believe me Pacquiao will give “Money” a run for his money. He will not just stand in front of Floyd and wait to be outclassed. It’s do or die.
I wonder why there are no boxers coming from other countries such as here in Singapore. They love football, soccer and table tennis instead.
-Vhoythoy D’ Great (Singapore)
Vhoythoy,
You can razz the experts for not correctly predicting a fight. However, they have a right to take in all available information and form a new opinion of what happened afterwards.
Prior to De La Hoya vs. Pacquiao there was no reason to believe that Oscar was far past his prime since he nearly defeated Floyd Mayweather in his last fight. However on fight night it was clear that he was not the same. In weeks after the bout we found out more information, that De La Hoya could not comfortably make weight, that he may have even doctored the scales so that he came in under the contracted limit. The story came together slowly but surely until the results could be explained. Adjusting your outlook as more facts are available is what a reasonable person does.
But even though I believe what I said in the paragraph above, I don’t always agree with the trends. In general, I think that fans get too down on a boxer after one loss and too high after one win. For example, the notion that Hatton is/was a mediocre fighter is bogus. He has plenty of quality wins on his record including a sound victory over Paulie Malignaggi (who was robbed against Juan Diaz in his last fight). Ricky fought the wrong fight, got caught with a big punch, and was easily bested by the better fighter when he fought Pacquiao.
As for your Mayweather vs. Pacquiao prediction, I agree that Pacquiao will be competitive. I got the feeling though, that you thought Juan Manuel Marquez did give much of an effort and just stood in front of Mayweather to be dominated. I disagree. Marquez gave his all and actually threw more punches than Mayweather. He never stopped pressing forward or trying to overcome Floyd. Mayweather’s immense skill is what caused Marquez to fail. A possible outcome of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao is that Manny gives his all and comes out with guns blazing but his attacks are rendered useless and he looks just like Marquez did. Going up against a great defense has a way of making opponents look like they are not giving a full effort.
Pacquiao Surprise
Brian – This is my first time writing but I have been reading your Mailbag for a long time. Okay, most people think the odds on Pacquiao winning against Mayweather are slim. What would surprise you in that fight? Like, what would Manny have to do or show that would surprise you in that fight?
-byTKO
byTKO,
Pacquiao has surprised us so many times that it would be very hard for him to take us completely by surprise again. However if he knocked Floyd Mayweather out, that would be pretty darn shocking.
I am expecting a very competitive bout with Pacquiao being the aggressor and Mayweather boxing/jabbing. I see Mayweather’s ability to avoid punishment being the deciding factor. Manny will do much better than Marquez’s 8% connect percentage but I don’t think it will be enough as Pacquiao drops a decision by a score of 116-112 or something like that.
But like I said before, counting him out or saying that Pacquiao will be anything less than competitive would be an error given Manny’s past and his penchant for upsets.
Pacquiao Not Invincible
Hey Brian,
I really dislike Floyd Mayweather because he has a big mouth, has no brains, and is apparently a liar (IRS) when surely he had to know the truth would come out, but I don’t see the Pacman giving him much of a fight either. You can’t beat him if you can’t hit him. I know the Pacman fans think he is invincible and I do like his fights but he is going to lose eventually.
Have these diehard fans not heard of Mike Tyson or Roy Jones who were like Superman in there primes to most people and were actually undefeated (except for Jones DQ which I think should have been a point deduct. It wasn’t like he was warned several times before the stoppage) and were also thought to be unstoppable?
Don’t tell because I’ll be get death threats but I wouldn’t mind seeing Cotto win a very unanimous decision just to stir up the boxing world and to get to hear all the excuses from fans. I do like the Pacman and would not want to see him knocked out though.
Also, what do you think about Oscar quitting against Pac? I do not recall Oscar being seriously hurt or wobbling back to his corner like you see in many other fights that weren’t alleged superfights like that one. He has had some losses (that everyone points out) but the guy has never really had his ass kicked. To me the Hopkins body shot was not that solid because it grazed his elbow and he was not getting hammered that bad before the KO. At least that’s the way I remember it. Oscar and Hopkins became business partners shortly after that and I couldn’t help thinking along those lines when he quit to Pacquiao. Pac is already a huge star and beating the huge star Oscar could really make some money. Maybe Oscar “the business man” took one for the team. Take it easy.
-John Doe (named changed to protect against death threats)
Sir,
I like your comments about Pacquiao not being invincible. Usually the #1 pound for pound boxer is thought to be untouchable and fans get carried away. That, of course, is never true. Pacquiao has lost before so that should be a sign of his vulnerability.
There are many Pacquiao fans who email me and have a realistic outlook on their guy, but so many others who think that he would defeat every boxer who ever lived all in one night.
I am most likely going to officially pick Pacquiao to win but I really think that Miguel Cotto has an excellent shot at pulling this one off. Cotto is a marvelously skilled boxer with power and accuracy. I have a hard time pegging this one down. A win by Cotto would shake up the boxing world a little bit, more so than a Pacquiao win.
I’m not so sure about your theory that De La Hoya quit on his stool because he wanted to pass the torch to Pacquiao. He is a world class competitor and if he thought there was any chance that he could get up from that stool and win, he would have. Plus, Pacquiao is a Top Rank fighter so Top Rank, not Golden Boy, is reaping the benefits from that win.
My P4P Folly Last Week
Brian,
Not to offend you or your expertise, but how could you put Chris John and Nonito Donaire in your top 10 pound for pound, but not the great and brave Miguel Cotto? How could that happen or even be possible? He is still undefeated in most eyes since Antonio Margarito cheated and he beat the guy that beat Margarito. I think it is safe to say you could have overlooked Miguel’s greatness, not to mention his exciting bouts.
-Alfredo Morales
Alfredo,
You are correct. I did that list very quickly and on the fly. I have previously given Miguel Cotto tremendous respect in P4P rankings and there is no reason to bump him down now all of a sudden. This was an oversight on my part. I would rank Cotto in the top 10, probably somewhere around 6 or 7, maybe even top 5. As you said, his loss to Margarito is in question now and his resume besides that is exemplary.
PPV Buys and Circus Fights
Hi Brian,
I wanna know how many PPV buys Floyd Maywheather’s last fight against Juan Manuel Marquez generated. Is the 1 million number for real because that figure is coming from Richard Schaeffer and I don’t trust him because he is from Golden Boy. I hope you could provide some answers.
Also, I want your opinion on these matches, and I wanna greet my team Kat, Budz, Glenz & Ron!!
1. Floyd Mayweather Sr. vs. Freddie Roach 2. Brian Kenny vs. Max Kellerman 3. Roger Mayweather vs. Yoel Judah 4. Mike Koncz & Jeng Gacal vs. Brad Cooney & Michael Marley 5. Ivan Calderon vs. Nikolai Valuev
Thanks & more power!!!
-Smallville
Smallville,
Reports are coming out that Mayweather vs. Marquez did 1 million PPV buys. I believe the numbers. HBO’s 24/7 series chronicling the training camp of both fighters is a very effective marketing tool. EVERYBODY in the US knew that this fight was coming up. That series is exactly the reason why De La Hoya vs. Mayweather did almost 3 million buys. The hype for Marquez vs. Mayweather was much larger than I had anticipated, especially the week leading up to the big event.
I attribute the overwhelming success of the PPV to the 24/7 series. There were many highlights this time around. Mayweather was up to his truculent self. He was investigated by the IRS and the police regarding that shooting incident. Marquez was drinking his own urine. There were plenty of water cooler discussions going on all over the US.
Here is what I think about your circus match ups:
1.Mayweather wins. This is not a fair fight, I mean Roach has Parkinson’s for crying out loud. 2.Kenny wins because Kellerman is a skinny douche. 3.In a boxing match Mayweather wins, but in a street fight Judah wins. 4.I’ll go with Cooney and Marley because they have weight on their side. 5.Calderon is DQ’d for low blows because he can’t reach the legal scoring area.
Pacquiao vs. Welterweights
Floyd dominated Juan Manuel Marquez because, as you said, and I won’t forget it, anything Marquez could do Floyd would do better. And that’s exactly what had just transpired. I thought JMM would be more aggressive than usual against Floyd last Sept 19th. I guess he made a mistake by trying to outbox and counterpunch Floyd the whole night. We all knew that Floyd is a better boxer/counterpuncher than JMM. Anyone, including Pacman, who tries to outbox/counterpunch Floyd will end up second best. As it turned out, JMM ended up settling for the “silver” in boxing/counterpunching department. Floyd took the “gold.”
I guess Pacquiao has a better chance of upsetting Floyd if ever they’d lock horns in 2010, if not doing much better than Marquez did last Saturday. Floyd struggled against De La Hoya and Hatton (Pacman’s common foes), and Castillo because they’re come-forward, aggressive, pressure fighters. Floyd toyed with Marquez because the Mexican lacks the pure offensive brutality and aggression that might bring Floyd to the deepest waters the “Money May” has never gone through.
Pacman glaringly struggled with JMM in 24 epic rounds because it’s a difficult style for Manny. So was the reformed brawler Marco Antonio Barrerun when he fought him in the rematch. Pacquiao seems to be at his best when he doesn’t need to find his opponents in the ring. Consider De La Hoya and Hatton to prove this point. As stated by Pacquiao in the Pinoy vernacular leading up to his fight with Hatton, “mas gusto ko ‘yung pinapasok ako” (“I like it more when my opponent tries to get inside and fight me.”). Manny dominated Oscar and Hatton (and many other aggressive foes before them) because Pacman is more effective dealing with fellow aggressive fighters.
Floyd is a better fighter than JMM but their style is comparable, so Pacman will certainly struggle to topple Floyd. However, Manny is a better fighter that De La Hoya and Hatton (whom Floyd struggled with) and their styles are comparable to the Pinoy Icon. Pacquiao will give Money May fits when these two of the best and most famous active fighters clash next year. I would like to be an optimist that this super fight will get made early next year, perhaps March of 2010?
I almost forgot, yes, I know that Manny has to get past a tough assignment this November in Miguel Cotto. But if Manny wins this one, the fight to be made is Floyd v Pacman in 2010.
-Karl Quizon
Karl,
I wouldn’t say that Marquez made a mistake in his game plan. He is as pure of a counterpuncher as can possibly exist. Trying to be anything other than that would be impossible for Marquez. Styles make fights and he had a tough styles match up against Mayweather.
I see that you are teetering back and forth with your Pacquiao vs. Floyd argument. On one hand you think Pacquiao can win because Floyd struggled with Hatton and De La Hoya, but on the other hand you think Mayweather can win because he is a better version of Juan Manuel Marquez.
Without a doubt Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao is the biggest and best possible fight that can be made in boxing if Pacquiao is able to get past Miguel Cotto. That one has a chance to break the PPV record if marketed correctly. Cotto, playing the role of spoiler for the first time in his career, has a good shot of blocking this super fight.
Odds of Winning
Thanks for responding! I know Floyd’s size really played a big role in his conquest of Juan Manual Marquez and of course the big disparity in the speed department and overall athletic abilities. I marvel at Floyd’s skills in making a pinpoint accurate boxer like Marquez to miss his shots big time!
I agree with your 55-45 percent in favor of Floyd in terms of chances of winning in the Floyd-Pacman clash. I even thought you were generous. But I would dare say that if they were to fight at 147lbs where Pacquiao is a mythically full-fledged welter (and not a 140-pounder who tries to make the big fight and give what the boxing world clamors for), this super fight is a toss-up, a 50-50 fight. Do you agree? Man, if Manny is a true, legit welter, imagine what would happen if Pacman’s quick power shots land flush on PBF? And Pacman is so nimble too like Floyd. We all know what DLH, Judah and Castillo did to Mayweather. Manny is no DLH, Judah nor Castillo.
I can’t wait for this super great matchup to happen, really hope Pacquiao decisions or TKOs Cotto free of controversy on Nov 14th. Thanks, man!
-Karl
Karl,
If Pacquiao was a big strong welterweight (say like Miguel Cotto or Antonio Margarito) then I would put the odds of Pacquiao vs. Mayweather at 50-50. As you may have read above, a reader made a convincing point that Zab Judah was giving Mayweather fits prior to having his trademark meltdown in the middle to late rounds. Pacquiao has the ability to do everything that Judah was doing only keep it up for all twelve rounds.
Pacquiao has improved so much in his ability to move in and out. His footwork and foot speed are world class now when they used to be a glaring fault of his. This will help him out tremendously against Mayweather. He won’t be a sitting duck like so many others have been to the fast, fleet-footed Mayweather.
I still have to stick by my slight edge to Mayweather though. Floyd is so good at adapting and does not know how to lose. His boxing ability is second to none.
Crazy Action Mythical Match Ups
A few bloodbath fight picks for you, amigo:
1) Prime Arturo Gatti vs. Prime Ricky Hatton 2) Ricky Hatton vs. Juan Diaz 3) Ricky Hatton vs. Michael Katsidis 4) Prime Katsidis vs. Prime Gatti 5) Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Katsidis 6) JuanMa Lopez vs. Chris John 7) “Pretty Boy” Floyd Mayweather vs. Pacman… For all the marbles (and the glory).
-Tex Cohen
Tex,
Here are my quick hits:
1. Hatton by split decision in a fight of the year winner.
2. Hatton by late round TKO because of his edge in size and power.
3. Katsidis by decision because he is younger, fresher, and just as energetic.
4. Gatti by decision because he thrives in these kinds of fights. He never goes away and has power to spare.
5. Marquez by knockout, counter punching the over aggressive Katsidis.
6. Lopez by 12th round TKO, finally catching up with the slippery John.
7. For now, I am picking Mayweather by decision.
That’s where I end folks. Thanks for reading. I look forward to reading and responding to your emails.
