When Juan Manuel Marquez ( 49-4-1, 36 KOs) and Juan Diaz (34-1, 17 KOs) lock horns in Houston, Texas on Saturday night, the winner will lay a strong claim to being the number one lightweight in the world.
Though the WBO and WBA championships are on the line, sanctioned trinkets alone do not bestow the honor of being lightweight ruler. Diaz has fought several years at lightweight, with only a 2008 set-back against Nate Campbell on his record. Marquez made his legacy as a featherweight, but his debut at 135 pounds resulted in an impressive knockout victory over veteran Joel Casamayor.
With Campbell leaving the division after failing to make weight for a February 14 bout with with Ali Funeka, Diaz and Marquez were left as finalists for the best of the class.
Diaz, a Houston native, fights with the intensity of a hornet, drowning his opponent with wave after wave of combinations. Thought not a knockout artist, constant pressure has produced stoppage victories over world class opponents Julio Diaz and Acelino Freitas.
Activity will be the key to a Diaz victory, but it also plays right into the hands of Marquez’s strongest attribute: crisp counter-punching. Rarely the one to take the led in the brutal dance of boxing, Marquez shines when striking the openings created by a foes initial strikes.
In the sterile environment of pre-fight analysis, Marquez’s counter punching would seem to push him over the top against Diaz, but one important variable must be considered in prognosticating this bout. Diaz is 25 years of age in comparison to Marquez’s 35.
Some will argue that Marquez is a fresh 35, not engaging in brutal war after brutal war, but the bottom line is featherweight, and Marquez is a featherweight fighting as a lightweight, don’t fight well into their late 30s. Sooner or later, during their fourth decade of life, their athletic engine gives out.
Going up against a fistic Energizer Bunny, Marquez is tempting fate. This writer can clearly envision Marquez winning the early rounds with his crisp counter punching, only to be overwhelmed and out hustled by Diaz’s activity level in the middle and late rounds.
A veteran counter-puncher versus a youthful, active fighter equals great matchmaking and explains why going into Friday morning sports books have Marquez as a slight favorite to win at -155 and Diaz as +125 underdog.
Youth might be served, experience might be served, but in the end, fans will receive a large serving of action and world class drama from the Toyota Center.
Bizarro Boxing Programing…
While Golden Boy Promotion — Diaz and Marquez’s promotional representation — presents a lightweight mosh posh of a card featuring four fights with less than top tier talent April 4th at a price point of $39.95, Diaz vs. Marquez will set you back the cost of ordering HBO for a month. It boggles my mind and reinforces my belief that boxing television programming has no logic, rhyme, or reason.
The action kicks off at 7 PM P.S.T. and HBO will also carry an elite featherweight clash between undefeated Indonesian Chris John’s (42-0-1, 22 KOs) stateside debut against another Houston homeboy, Rocky Juarez (28-4, 20 KOs).
I Predict…
Back and forth my selection for a winner goes and where it stops, nobody knows. My fight pick ’em record for 2009 stands at one win, two losses — Vic Darchinyan over Jorge Arce, but set backs when Antonio Margarito disappeared against Shane Mosley and Andre Berto stole one from Luis Collazo.
Marquez maybe 35, but he is a master technician and should have enough left in the tank to squeeze out a razor thin split decision victory over Juan Diaz.
