Formulas and theories might be fine for science and mathematics, but when it comes to boxing, you might as well throw them out the window. Let?s look at some prime examples. George Foreman knocked Ken Norton and Joe Frazier senseless. Norton and Frazier both beat Muhammad Ali, so according to the who?s- beaten-who formula of boxing, Foreman should have knocked Ali out before the national anthem of Zaire had finished. Ali, though, threw a monkey wrench into that equation when he decked Foreman in the eighth round.
However, there?s bound to be one guy who can?t follow the script and Ali always was a rebel so let?s explore a little further. Tommy Hearns hit Roberto Duran so hard back in 1984 you could hear ?The Hand of Stone?s? jaw snap like a twig in a hurricane. Duran, though, beat Sugar Ray Leonard in the Brawl in Montreal but after two attempts Hearns still couldn?t completely solve Leonard. These are just two of an endless stream of examples where the who?s-beaten-who way of predicting fights didn?t work out.
How about theories and clich?s then? I?m sure you?ve all heard this one. ?A good big man will always beat a good little man.? Well, I thought heavyweight Larry Holmes was bigger than light heavyweight Michael Spinks both times they fought, and John Ruiz was bigger than Roy Jones, and I know Jameel McCline and Vitali Klitschko were a hell of a lot bigger than Chris Byrd because he almost needed a step ladder to hit them. But in each instance, the good little man beat the good big man, with Spinks and Jones taking away the big guys? titles while doing it.
But if you?re not convinced and would rather stick with the odds of the formulas and theories you?re going to be out of luck this Saturday when you try to predict the winner of the IBA super featherweight title bout between Erik ?El Terrible? Morales (47-2, 34 KOs) and Manny ?Pac Man? Pacquiao (39-2-2, 31 KOs) bout in Las Vegas. If we use the formula we see that Marco Antonio Barrera has beaten Morales twice and Pacquiao has knocked out Barrera, so by the laws of nature, Pacquiao should have no problem disposing of the Mexican warrior. But not so fast, if the good bigger man is going to beat the good smaller man we might as well declare Morales the winner now as the Filipino buzz saw is fighting way over his original flyweight weight of 112 pounds. As you can see, we?re at a stalemate here.
So where do we look next, age? Pacquiao is 26 and Morales is 28. OK, how about reach? At 72 to 67 inches, Morales has a slight edge there. Height? Morales is 1 ? inches taller but that?s where any major differences seem to end. These two boxers match up so evenly in almost every other essential department it would take a crowbar to separate them or perhaps a perfectly timed left hook or shot to the body.
Let?s take a closer look at the intangibles. Pacquiao is a southpaw but against a fighter of Morales? skill level and experience that shouldn?t be a factor here. Both have won and both have lost world titles. Both have fought some of the toughest opposition around and have never been accused of ducking anybody along the way. Both fighters are known for their relentlessness, as they never stop throwing punches. It?s a hard pace to keep up over 12 rounds though, and both of them will need to slow it down for a round or two to catch their breath along the way. They can both hit like a ton of bricks to the head and body and Pacquiao may have a slight edge here, but will his punches have the same effect on a 130 pounder as they did in the lower weight divisions? While Pacquiao has deposited a lot of his opponents on their backsides during his career, he?s also kissed the canvas a few times himself. I think Morales has the better chin and he?ll need it on Saturday because he?s definitely going to be hit a few times.
Both boxers can strike as quick as lightning, so if anybody does show a speed advantage in Vegas it could be an important factor as to who lands first. Even though they take a lot of punches both have above average defense but seem to forget about it once the action heats up. Pacquiao is a fast and sometime reckless starter and could turn round one into a smaller version of the opening three minutes of the classic Hagler vs. Hearns slugfest of 20 years ago. It could also turn out to be similar to last year?s fight against Juan Manuel Marquez when Pacquiao had Marquez down three times in the first round and couldn?t finish him, settling for a 12 round draw.
I think Pacquiao will have learned from that fight and shouldn?t make the same mistake twice. Morales, though, is no slouch out of the starting blocks himself and could catch Pacquiao coming in early. Pacquiao?s trainer Freddie Roach said his fighter is going to dictate and force the pace while going to the body early because Morales has been though some wars. He could get frustrated though if his punching power doesn?t come up with his weight, and if this happens Morales will figure him out and could try to stick to boxing him with his longer arms. Pacquiao is a good boxer himself but it?s in his nature to go all out and try to fill his opponent in.
There are many possible scenarios to this bout, as it could end with the fight?s first punch or it could come down to the last shot of the 12th round, while anything in between could be controlled mayhem or an exhibition of boxing. However, I think most fans are hoping for all hell to break loose once the bell rings.
Although it seems the fans and odds makers are going with Pacquiao in this one, you have to remember that boxing is about as predictable as tomorrow night?s lottery numbers and this fight?s going to be just as hard for each guy to win as it is hitting the jackpot. And that?s not a bad idea actually. If you really want to know who?s going to have his arm raised late Saturday night, put Morales? and Pacquiao?s names on a couple of dozen balls, shake them around in a container and see whose name comes out first, because I don?t really see any sensible way to choose between the two.
