I am sure our readers have noticed how easy it is for people to shoot off their mouths when they are certain no one will hold them liable, or even remember what it is they said, for that matter. This is also the time of the year for every boxing expert to roll out his or her predictions for 2009 (I did this over the last two weeks), and tell you what they believe is in store for boxing fans over the next 365 days.
But we have high standards at Maxboxing, and are held accountable for what we write. With that thought in mind, every year I venture back and review my predictions from the previous year. Take a look around, I do not think you will find another website or publication doing the same thing.
In my 2008 preview-review, I revisit my predictions in every weight class for a champion who will stay, a champion who will go, and a boxer to watch out for. I do not make any changes to the overall editorial from last year, but do edit it down to keep the word count below that of a Tolstoy novel. At the end I apply a simple grade – from A to F – to my predictions with an opinion on how the prediction turned out.
STRAWWEIGHT
Champion who will keep his title: Oleydong Sithsamerchai What I said: ?I am taking a chance with this selection, in hopes that Sithsamerchai will not have an immediate rematch with Eagle Kyowa. At 22, Sithsamerchai is in his physical prime, and mandatory challenger (Juan Palacios) does not look to have the pedigree to defeat the Thai at home.?
Grade – A: I should have showed more confidence in Sithsamerchai, since he went 4-0 in 2008 and easily defeated his mandatory challenger. Eagle Kyowa also retired in 2008, so no worries there either.
Champion who will lose his title: Florante Condes What I said: ?He must travel to Mexico to face his number one challenger, undefeated but untested Raul Garcia, and Condes defeated an aging champion coming of a one year layoff to win the title.?
Grade ? A: His title did not survive the trip to Mexico, although Condes did put up a good fight, losing via split decision. Won his comeback bout a couple weeks ago, and could still be a title threat given his credible performances, on the road, against Muhammad Rachman and Raul Garcia.
Watch out for: Roman Gonzalez What I said: ?The Nicaraguan is undefeated in 16 fights, and knocked out every opponent so far. The worrying part is that he has yet to go past seven rounds, and is only twenty years old.?
Grade ? A+ : Went 6-0 and won the WBA strawweight title. Traveled to Japan in September and impressively knocked out Yutaka Niida in the fourth round, and got in the obligatory gimme post-title win against Miguel Tellez in December. Still only has two great wins, but the up side for him is fantastic!
JR. FLYWEIGHT
Champion who will keep his title: Ivan Calderon What I said: ?Outside of Floyd Mayweather there is no better pure boxer than Calderon. At 32 he is past his best in terms of hand speed, but people forget that he turned pro late (at 26) and has used his vast amateur experience to his benefit.?
Grade – A: Not a difficult choice, and Calderon delivered with a 2-0 year. It included a rematch win over Hugo Cazares, and one year on he is not showing any signs of deterioration.
Champion who will lose his title: Ulises Solis What I said: ?I think that Solis and Ivan Calderon will fight, in late 2008, to add yet another chapter to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico boxing saga. If that pairing does not happen, Solis will be safe in 2008.?
Grade – C: While he still holds his title, in a way I was right. The fight between Solis and Calderon never happened, so Solis got to keep his belt. Because of that caveat I did not give myself a failing grade. Solis looked good defending his title as well, widely outpointing Glenn Donaire and Nerys Espinoza. I would love to see a Solis vs. Calderon bout for 2009, since Solis is the only jr. flyweight who has a chance with Calderon.
Watch out for: Giovanni Segura What I said: ?I considered Phumzile Matyhila, but age and holding the ridiculous WBF title will hold him back on the world stage. Segura is a high volume puncher that likes to get in the trenches for a brawl, and is getting good TV dates on fights aired by Mexican channel Telefutura.?
Grade – D: Segura got a shot at the WBA interim title, but lost it pretty lopsidedly to surprising Colombian Cesar Canchila. At 26 he is far from done, and it looks like he will rematch Canchila in a couple months. But he let me down in 2008.
FLYWEIGHT
Champion who will keep his title: Omar Narvaez What I said: ?Narvaez is a good champion who has proven his worth over 11 title defenses, the hardest of which came overseas. He is averaging two fights a year, but should squeeze in three this year. The former Argentine Olympian has maxed out in terms of getting the most out of his skills, and in his career development.?
Grade – A+: Went 3-0 in 2008, and was even able to defend the title twice in his home country. Mexican Alejandro Hernandez did take a couple rounds from him, but otherwise Narvaez looks as sharp as a 33 year old can be.
Champion who will lose his title: Takefumi Sakata What I said: ?Sakata is a decent champ, but a close look at his record reveals he loses more often than not in distance fights against his best opposition.?
Grade ? A: Whew. Sakata kept me on the edge until the very last second, losing his title on December 31st! Struggled in a title defense against Shingo Yamaguchi, but rebounded to look better against another countryman, Hiroyuki Hisataka. Could not match the power of perennial Thai contender Denkaosan Kaovichit, losing by second round kayo.
Watch out for: Rayonta Whitfield What I said: ?It takes some guts to pick an American to do well at flyweight, considering there has not been an American champion in the division since 1998. Picking a Southern boxer to boot makes this a case of double jeopardy. If everything comes together for Whitfield, he has the skills and physical wherewithal to give any of the champs a tough matchup.?
Grade – B: We will find out just how skillful Whitfield is, as he has the unenviable task of trying to take the title from Omar Narvaez in Argentina. Went 3-0 in 2008, and impressed me with his determination against Mexican Manuel Vargas, who pushed Whitfield hard but could not match his work rate. It was the kind of fight that Whitfield needed to get under his belt before challenging Navarez in February. If Whitfield had won this title shot in 2008 I could have added another A to my report card.
JR. BANTAMWEIGHT
Champion who will keep his title: Cristian Mijares What I said: ?What Mijares did to Jorge Arce opened my eyes to his skill set, and I have to admit my ignorance of his abilities beforehand. In retrospect, I ignored a very good body of work that included good road victories and no losses since 2002. Unless the positive press swells Mijares? head, I do not see him losing in 2008.?
Grade – D: The Mexican scored three good wins before he was blasted out by Vic Darchinyan in November. I did not see that fight happening, but admit that I thought Mijares would win it. Was I right about Mijares getting a big head after all his good wins? I doubt it, Darchinyan might just be that good. No F, because Mijares did have a solid year before his loss to Darchinyan.
Champion who will lose his title: Fernando Montiel What I said: ?I can not bring myself to endorse a fighter who goes against his strengths as a boxer; in the end, that practice brings about unnecessary losses. Because of Montiel’s relatively good name recognition, he should get some tough opponents as well, and he has only had one easy fight in the last two years (fighting 70 of 72 possible rounds in the process).?
Grade – F: I have to give myself the lowest grade possible, because Montiel brought me so much joy in the way which he kept his title. He is the anti-Barrera, transforming from fleet footed stylist to an all too willing slugger. Surprised many by knocking out Martin Castillo (sending him into retirement), and followed that up with two more solid wins.
Watch out for: AJ Banal What I said: ?The Filipino gets my nod over Japan’s Go Onaga. Onaga has faced slightly better opposition, defeating former title challenger Nerys Espinoza. Banal has faced good opposition as well, and was not pampered early handing two fellow prospects their first losses.?
Grade ? F: I could not have screwed up my picks in this division more if I had tried! Banal started the year great, knocking out undefeated southpaw Caril Herrera, but was upset by Panamanian Rafael Concepcion at home. At 20, Banal is likely to rebound strongly, but the way he failed to shake off Concepcion’s single right hand does not instill much confidence.
BANTAMWEIGHT
Champion who will keep his title: Hozumi Hasegawa What I said: ?Slick as a greased rattlesnake, Hasegawa’s variety of title fight victims is only surpassed by Rafael Marquez in contemporary history. The southpaw has really come into his own, and the only negative is a lack of ring appearances (averaging two fights a year), especially given that Hasegawa is in his prime, and has a wealth of attractive opposition to chose from. Will fight equally inactive Italian Simone Maludrottu in January, and he could be Hasegawa’s toughest opposition this year given his mandatory challenger status.?
Grade ? A: Pretty much right on, except that Hasegawa fought three times this year. He did win every fight, and knocked out his last two opponents. It was a rarity of sorts, since those two stoppages account for two of his nine kayos in 31 fights. The Maludrottu bout was the toughest, but the closest he came was within four points on one scorecard.
Champion who will lose his title: Wladimir Sidorenko What I said: ?His year starts with a tough title defense in Japan, which will mark the first time Sidorenko has not enjoyed home field advantage. If Sidorenko gets past that obstacle, he will still have to face streaking mandatory challenger Anselmo Moreno (A Nicaraguan southpaw counterpuncher, who has only one disputed loss) before the year is over.?
Grade ? A: The little Russian did better than expected in Japan, posting a relatively easy unanimous decision over Nobuto Ikehara. He was tripped up against Moreno, and lost a unanimous decision to the Panamanian in Germany. A surprise in my opinion, as I would have bet on Sidorenko losing to Ikehara over Moreno. No matter, he still lost his title.
Watch out for: Sasha Bakhtin What I said: ?This Japan based Russian is the right handed version of Hozumi Hasegawa, who shoots up a sharp left jab with laser precision. Tends to get a little too comfortable in the ring, when he knows an opponent can not hurt him, and eats one too many punches for my taste. Reminds me of a speedier Bernard Dunne, and was reportedly a power puncher in the amateurs before making the conversion to stylist.?
Grade ? B+ : Will give myself a plus grade because Bakhtin fought four times in 2008, only losing one round on all the judges? scorecards. He stopped two of his challengers, and befuddled capable Mexican slugger Gerson Guerrero and slick southpaw Hidenobu Honda. At 27 he is ready to challenge for the title, and the way he handled the divergent styles thrown at him in 2008 suggests he is capable of winning a title when given the opportunity.
JR. FEATHERWEIGHT
Champion who will keep his title: Steve Molitor What I said: ?The economic landscape for a Canadian champion in a Hispanic driven division is not optimal, but it will also help Molitor keep his title until he has gained more name recognition. Look for Israel Vazquez, Rafael Marquez, Ponce De Leon, and Celestino Caballero to circle and engage each other throughout 2008. This leaves Molitor to pick over an unimpressive roster of challengers that the WBO have voted into their top 10.?
Grade ? F- : Damn, you Showtime and your quality matchmaking! Molitor was dominated and knocked out in four rounds by Celestino Caballero in the worst performance of his career. I still believe Molitor is a skilled boxer, but can he mentally overcome the manner in which he lost his title? Would Molitor have kept his title if he had not gotten a unification fight with Caballero? Given the way he lost, I have downgraded Molitor and am now content he might have lost his title in 2008 anyway.
Champion who will lose his title: Daniel Ponce De Leon What I said: ?I chose De Leon because I just can not get over the lack of refinement that De Leon brings in to the ring, and believe a good boxer puncher will dislodge him from his throne.?
Grade ? A: Given that De Leon was knocked out in one round by young phenom Juan Manuel Lopez, I was tempted to give myself an A+. But Lopez might just be a very special fighter, and a loss to that kind of fighter is forgivable. Having said that, I really like De Leon’s seek and destroy style, and hope to see him in against one of the champions in 2009.
Watch out for: Juan Manuel Lopez What I said: ?The Puerto Rican has the look and feel of a sure-fire future champion, with a level of progression reminiscent of Miguel Cotto. The 5’7 southpaw is a former Olympian, and has taken apart a variety of styles slung at him by fellow prospects, veterans, and a former title challenger. At 24 he still has a year to mature, if necessary, but I would favor him to defeat two of the four current champions right now.?
Grade ? A+: Is there a grade higher than A+? If so, this is where it is applicable. JuanMa has been nothing short of spectacular in 2008, winning a title belt and knocking out every one he has faced. In three title fights, none of which lasted more than a round, Lopez has scored six knockdowns. We might have to start measuring this kid’s title reign in terms of minutes the fight lasted instead of rounds.
