I BEG to disagree with more esteemed writers who offer the suggestion that weight will not be a factor and that skills alone will determine the outcome of a fight.
Before a fighter?s skills come into play, physical conditioning comes first. Without it, those skills will never be in full display.
A fighter can possess superior skills, but if he comes into a fight weak, dehydrated or tired, he can lose to a lesser fighter.
That being said, I reiterate my point of view that the fighter best suited to be a welterweight come fight time, will be victorious in this experiment, simply because the more comfortable fighter?conditioning wise?will be able to flaunt his skills fully and apply the pre-ordained strategy effectively.
At the risk of belaboring the point, remember that this will be the first time for Manny Pacquiao to be fighting as a welterweight and Oscar de la Hoya will be revisiting a weight class he has not fought in for the past eight years.
May the best pseudo-welterweight prevail.
EXPECT THE FIGHT. To be decided in the championship rounds. Manny will come out firing in the first round the way he did against David Diaz and Oscar will immediately try to establish his jab.
At times, expect the height difference to seem quite overstated and blame this on the fact that de la Hoya tends to fight out of a crouch.
When facing a shorter opponent, Oscar often likes to hunch his shoulders forward and duck his head, thus negating his height advantage.
If Freddie Roach did his homework, Manny should be able to take advantage of this and narrow the gap so he can land his flurries.
On the other hand, if Nacho Beristain and Angelo Dundee were able to conspire splendidly to create a master game plan, getting inside de la Hoya will prove to be difficult.
If he can time Manny?s rushes, Oscar will move laterally after firing a double jab, and wait for the proper punching angle to unleash his combinations.
If this happens, Manny should try his vaunted offbeat in-and-out forays to get Oscar off his punching rhythm. This way he can score points and hopefully even catch de la Hoya for a flash knockdown which Oscar has been prone to in the past.
In this fight, because he is fighting so light, the Golden Boy can well be vulnerable to one of those blinding left straights from the Pacman.
It is important for Manny to score a knockdown in this fight in order for him to win more rounds because if the fight goes to the judges, Oscar?s jab will appear to dominate the fight.
Another problem for Manny is that physics is not on his side. He will be punching upward to get at his taller opponent, and this takes away some of the power in his blows.
It is beyond cavil that de la Hoya is past his prime, but my hunch is that even a Golden Boy at 75 percent capacity, is still too big and too strong for Manny who is fighting one or two divisions higher than his ideal weight class.
De la Hoya over Pacquiao by TKO at Round 10.
SURVEY. The Last Round has been doing the rounds and taking stock of what readers, friends and acquaintances have been predicting.
From my tally, for every 10 people I ask, five of them say it?s Oscar. Around three or four say it?s Manny, while one or two are the conspiracy theorists who claim that the fight is nothing but a big, fat farce.
LAST ROUND. It?s on my pretty niece Kristen Mayol who recently celebrated her birthday. Cheers!
