It?s called deferred gratification.
How about a show of hands out there in Boxingconfidential Land?
How many of you thrift-conscious folks are going to keep 55 clams in your pocket and wait for the week later replay of Manny Pacquiao-Oscar De La Hoya?
Is there any doubt the replay will be HBO?s biggest boxing ratings smash of a dismal 2008?
And what will Manny-Oscar do on the PPV barometer?
The bottom line numbers on this megafight will be like taking an internal temperature check on boxing as a whole.
Back before the economy crashed, promoter Bob Arum and Richard Schaefer spoke glowingly about 1.5 million buys.
This would?ve been boffo in a year in which the biggest buy rate was the 500,000 or so done by Felix Trinidad and Roy Jones back in January.
There was euphoria in the industry over that half-million hit which, according to reliable expert report Thomas Umstead of Multichannel News, grossed $25 million.
What got lost in the giddiness was the fact that it was mainly Tito’s loyalists, who had backed their guy for 1.4 million buys when he fought De La Hoya and a more than respectable 560,000 buys when he battled Fernando Vargas, who drove the PPV train.
I?m skeptical that Manny-Oscar hits the 750,000 mark or half the stated goal. It doesn?t help that Black Friday shopping stats are tepid and that the holidays are on every workingman?s mind.
Which might bring some solace to Oscar hater Antonio Margarito.
If Manny-Oscar can?t hit 450,000 buys (it has to right, being a celebrity circus?), then the Tijuana Tornado and Boricua Cotto can say they outdid Pacman and Oskie.
If the PPV price was lower, I?d guess that Manny-Oscar would at least match what Tito and Roy did 11 months ago.
It might even come close to the magic 1 million mark.
But, in this uncertain climate, I think that is questionable.
As I?ve written before, if ever a PPV price should have been reduced, it?s this one. I can imagine the cable operators, who share the TV revenue with the promoters and HBO, would reject that out of hand.
But the cable operators are not concerned with boxing?s short or long terms health. They?ve got so many other PPV offerings that boxing is not high on their list.
Who is going to win this fight? I?m leaning strongly to Megamanny now and I land in Vegas Monday.
But the more important story for the boxing business is those PPV buy rate numbers.
One million buys is acceptable. Hitting the 750,000 mark would make people more nervous than ever.
Anything below is disastrous for all the time, money and 24/7 shows poured into Manny-Oscar.
Tick, tick, tick…
