To consider elements of HBO’s fall lineup, in light of American capitalism’s coming overhaul, is to wonder if we’ll ever again have a broadcast year like 2008. Will we not look back at fights like Pavlik-Hopkins and Pacquiao-De La Hoya and say of them, as we now say of so much, “Did we really think this was sustainable?”
The de-leveraging of banks will have many effects. One is the likely end of an average boxing fan’s $600 annual pay-per-view budget. For years pundits have railed at promoters and networks for this. The debate has been interesting and frivolous. The market is about to end it.
It’s not all bad news, though. It never is. Not in a sport as resilient as boxing.
Showtime, for years the guerilla network, might be on the verge of parity. Next year HBO’s boxing budget will still dwarf Showtime’s. But what about in 2010 and beyond? There’s no telling. So, it’s fair to ask which network is better positioned to entertain on a shoestring budget. We all know the answer to that.
More evidence comes Saturday. Showtime will broadcast a highly anticipated fight in the light heavyweight division and a heavyweight title fight that promises to be unusual. The highly anticipated fight will pit undefeated, former WBC champ Chad Dawson against former universally recognized light heavyweight and current IBF champion Antonio Tarver.
The unusual fight will see WBC heavyweight champ Samuel Peter defend his title against former WBO/WBC heavyweight champ Vitali Klitschko.
Tarver-Dawson happens in Las Vegas, Peter-Klitschko in Berlin.
Whether your preference is for anticipated or unusual, it behooves you to cheer for only one fight to be consequential. That would be Dawson-Tarver. If Peter-Klitschko becomes consequential we’ve got problems. More about that later.
Chad Dawson has an air of invincibility about him. Talking to folks in the gym gives you the feeling Dawson is expected to beat Tarver. Not necessarily stop him, but outwork him and make his night miserable. Dawson is younger, fresher and stronger.
But am I the only one who’s slightly reminded of Jeff Lacy before Joe Calzaghe? Lacy was considered a more imposing force than Dawson. But Calzaghe was considered a fresher force than anyone considers Tarver.
Nobody’s expecting Dawson to blow out Tarver the way we all erroneously thought Lacy would handle Calzaghe. But Tarver’s chances bear consideration.
It’s fair to say Dawson is the impetus for Bernard Hopkins’ establishment of his own division. After decisioning Tarver 28 months ago, Hopkins created the 170-pound division — not quite light heavyweight but more than super middleweight — to feast on small men, rather than young, naturally larger ones. Nobody blamed him for it at the time. But then, who thought the end of 2008 would see him making a third such fight?
So if Hopkins beat Tarver and created a division to avoid Dawson, what gives Tarver a chance Saturday? The off-speed punch, that’s what.
Other guys use this punch, but none as effectively as Tarver. Here’s how it works. Once he has an opponent’s guard up, Tarver throws a number of straight, light punches at the opponent’s gloves and forearms. It’s not a flurry. It doesn’t seek to compile points. It establishes a false rhythmic pattern for the opponent. Then Tarver fires a hard left cross from his southpaw stance, and it stings.
Boxing intelligence, like all intelligence, reduces to pattern recognition. How quickly you can detect patterns. How many patterns you can keep distinct. That’s why, if you throw the same combination at a world champion more than twice, you’ll probably get clobbered while cocking your fist for a third go.
Just like a major leaguer who uses the contrast of an off-speed pitch to set up a high fastball, Tarver gives opponents the false security of off-speed punches. It is something Dawson, with his fine amateur pedigree, might have seen before. The question is whether he’s seen it the way Tarver does it.
Let’s not bet against youth on this one. But put me in the camp of those who won’t be too surprised if Tarver pulls an upset Saturday.
Writing of surprises. Saturday’s co-feature guarantees nothing but.
Starting with the unretired Vitali Klitschko surviving the perilous landscape of a training camp — something he’s failed to do in at least three tries since 2004. Samuel Peter, meanwhile, has overseen a surprising skill-based retreat from where he was two Januarys ago. Neither guy will be his best.
Until he was felled multiple times by Jameel McCline a year ago, Peter was at least believed to possess the best chin in the heavyweight division. Klitschko — Vitali, not Wladimir — has a proven chin. Fact is, Klitschko’s chin might be the soundest spot on his body. Will it hold up under Peter’s thudding overhand punches? Probably. Will the rest of Klitschko’s frame hold up for 12 rounds? Doubtful. Klitschko needs to stop Peter to win.
And we need to pray that doesn’t happen. A Klitschko victory Saturday would mean two Klitschkos holding three major belts — while refusing to fight one another. Those of us who perennially call false bottoms in the heavyweight division would be humiliated. You think the heavyweight division’s bad right now? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Whatever comes of Saturday’s fights, though, Showtime deserves credit for putting this broadcast together. The programmers could easily have unbundled these two fights, appended mismatched undercard scraps to their bottoms and given us two weekends of mediocrity instead of one weekend of excellence. Or they could have put these fights on pay-per-view.
Showtime has more disastrous nights than HBO. But it also has more great ones. Showtime has to starve itself to make weight for most every broadcast. Sometimes, as a result, it looks flat. But I’ll take that over a soft champion who demands ridiculous purses every time he has to face a live opponent. I’ll take it any day.
Bart Barry can be reached at [email protected]
