Welcome to my mailbag ladies and gentlemen. Readers are often writing in asking for my predictions on various fights, plus I give out my predictions for the big fights in the Team RSR Fight Picks posts. My boxing predictions and fight analyses often come to fruition; well, more than half the time anyway as I am not afraid to admit my mistakes and I have made many before.
Perhaps my head got a little big a couple weeks ago because I ventured out of my comfort zone and made a prediction with a friend that had nothing to do with boxing. I bet that the new Batman movie, ?The Dark Knight? would make less than 130 million dollars in its opening weekend. As with all of my predictions, I was very confident and sure of my victory.
I was banking on guys to show up to the movie theaters planning to see Batman but be strong-armed by their girlfriends at the last minute and forced to see Mamma Mia instead. I also thought that the movie was too dark and scary for parents to bring their kids to see.
I?m ashamed to say that I fell flat on my face with this forecast. ?The Dark Knight? ended up breaking the all time box office opening weekend record with over 150 million dollars. Rarely do my fight predictions turn out so badly. Apparently, I need to stick to the fight game with regard to predictions. Feel free to email me and taunt me for losing the bet, or give me your review of the movie (which I thought was a pretty good action/superhero movie and I am usually not a fan of that genre).
Back to the mailbag, I appreciate all of the emails I have received over the last week wishing me luck on my recent move and also sharing their thoughts on boxing with me. This week we have the return of a couple favorite emailers including Jon ?The Nostradamus of Boxing? and the 300 pound lady?s man Farney Fooney. Among the topics this week are Manny Pacquiao, Oscar De La Hoya, the aftermath of the classic Cotto vs. Margarito fight, Andre Berto, and Wladimir Klitschko among other topics.
The first question of the week comments on the welterweight championship fight between Joshua Clottey and Zab Judah that happened over the weekend. Clottey captured the vacant IBF Welterweight Championship with a technical decision over Zab Judah propelling him into the spotlight of a crowded and talented welterweight division. Judah on the other hand has work to do to get back to where he once was.
Poor Super Judah
Hey Brian. I kind of feel bad for Zab Judah after losing yet again, this time to Joshua Clottey on Saturday. He used to be one of the best fighters around and now he is done. He has such great talent and seems like he is trying his best to train and fight but still comes up short. I guess he should retire.
-Ron
Ron,
I don?t feel bad for Zab; he made the bed that he lays in with his bad attitude. Boxing is a mental game and Zab just doesn?t have that mental fortitude that great boxers like Floyd Mayweather and Bernard Hopkins have even though his physical talents are as good or better than those mentioned fighters. Zab is not done as a fighter. He was simply beaten by a better man (Clottey is no slouch). I categorize Judah as a dangerous opponent for anyone because of his speed and power can making lightning strike. For that reason, he is still a top 10 contender but the remainder of his career will play out more like a gatekeeper than a champion.
As for Clottey, he needed this win to prove to the doubters that he belongs in the ring with the elite of the division. I have been an admirer of Clottey since I saw him almost beat Antonio Margarito. I would like to see him mix it up with the likes of Andre Berto or a rematch with Margarito next. He deserves another shot.
Caused By A Punch!
It doesn?t really matter because Joshua Clottey won anyway but that fight should not have gone to the scorecards. Clottey opened up that cut on Judah with a punch! Not a headbutt! That should have been a TKO win for Clottey.
-Joe B.
Joe,
The replay looked like the cut was caused by an uppercut, but even with the instant replay it was hard to tell for sure. With that said I don?t think that it is fair to be outraged with the officials for their decision, especially since Clottey rightfully won, because even with instant replay we aren?t 100% sure what happened. Unless an official blows a clear call I give them the benefit of the doubt because they have a tough job.
Cotto vs. Margarito Eclipsed MMA
Hi, Brian, what a terrific time indeed to be a fight fan. The Cotto-Margarito bout was a delectable, top-notch collision. The immovable object (Antonio) was as immovable as it can be and the supposedly unstoppable force (Miguel) was not unstoppable after all. Cotto put on an unbelievable stellar performance last Saturday but he embodied a force simply not enough to move Margarito away from his senses. Their fight is one of the reasons why I love boxing more than MMA (though I watch MMA fights). In fact, I was lucky to watch the explosive Torres-Holt bout in the morning last July 6 and the thrilling Jackson-Griffin fight on the same day in the evening. But Cotto-Margarito is definitely incomparable to seeing Forrest Griffin vs. Rampage Jackson fight and/or the rest of MMA slugfests.
-Karl Quizon
Karl,
I agree Karl, great email. When boxing is at its best there is nothing that MMA has to offer that can top it. I like MMA but that is my honest opinion.
Pacman vs. De La Hoya Forecast
Hi Brian,
I have a lot of respect for your posts and your stand is too good to topple even if they proved to be right in their predictions. On the other hand, I?d like to take this opportunity to ask one of your avid posters in RSR by the name of Jon?he calls himself the Nostradamus of Boxing?
To Jon, who do you think will win if Pacman and Golden Boy face-off on December, say at 147lbs? I know some people find it ridiculous to pit the two fighters especially of the individual?s weight differences.
Thanks Brian, I felt you also find it absurd for such a fight because I knew you?re one of the geniuses in boxing history especially in your analysis. But, I trust your analysis as a very technical one. But, there is more to the technical sense and the paradox that belies the general knowledge, and some of these are beyond human strengths, sometimes we call it a phenomenon, a mystery, supernatural, and so on?but, whatever it is, there are exceptions to the common understanding that our minds are being accustomed and programmed to believed.
After all, inasmuch as boxing is analyzed in the way the computers run the algorithm to get the result, there is more to boxing, that is why there are upsets, and at certain instances, the boxing geniuses are astounded and stand corrected at the closing bell when the underdog?s hand is lifted in the air. Look at Margarito, Andy Lee, JuanMa, Barrett, Santa Cruz (should?ve won), Pac-Barrera I, etc? That?s how I see the boxing geniuses perceived their analysis. As for Pacman, it just ain?t applicable. If you experienced the paranormal resurgence in this era, Pacman would be the subliminal symbol of it.
Sorry for the long email, but, I ain?t a psychic?I just try to express my view, in the same way as the Nostradamus of Boxing did?nice day Brian?
-Colt45
Colt45,
I am one of the geniuses in boxing history? How dare you! I am THE genius in boxing history and I refused to be called anything lesser! Just kidding, but I thank you for the compliment.
I hear what you were saying in the second half of your email. Boxing is the theater of the unexpected. You can analyze a fight and get really good at analyzing fights but there are so many intangibles in boxing (and life in general) that you cannot measure and that could have an enormous impact on the outcome of a fight. Every brain cell in my head and every piece of logic on the planet suggested that Mike Tyson was going to easily dispose of Buster Douglas. That just didn?t happen. That is why they fight the fights and why boxing matches are not won on paper. The unpredictable nature of boxing is one of the reasons why it is so exciting to watch.
By the way, I emailed Jon, the Nostradamus of Boxing, and this was his response to your inquiry about the potential Manny Pacquiao vs. Oscar De La Hoya showdown:
?Maybe I can make a living giving people winners? If people want my betting advice feel free to send it to me, but I make no guarantees if someone loses their house.
To answer the Pacman-De La Hoya question, I make my predictions based on the best way to make cash. I had targeted Tye Fields as a money making opportunity since the first time I saw him about 2 years ago. I knew he would be a favorite the first time they put him in against a decent fighter. I made 3-1 on my money for that fight. Another fight I looked forward to was Mayweather-Hatton because I knew the British fans would keep the line close even though there was no way Hatton could have won that fight.
So to answer the question I would guess that De La Hoya would be about a 3-1 underdog in that fight. However closer to the fight, if it happens, I am guessing the De La Hoya followers would cut the line down to closer to 2-1 much like when De La Hoya fought Mayweather. IF, and that is a big if, I could get De La Hoya as a 3-1 or more dog I would take that shot for 2 reasons. Judges will tend to favor De La Hoya in a decision and Manny will be coming up in weight. If that fight were to come off I would really look to making money on the over/under. I would bet the over and call it a day, because the chances this fight ends before the decision are very small in my opinion.
I do have my eyes on a fight that is rumored to be coming up, so be ready Brian and all other betters.?
That is Jon?s take on the fight and I disagree with one point. I don?t think that De La Hoya would be a betting underdog, let alone a large underdog against Pacquiao. Pacquiao just moved up to lightweight and would have to move up an additional two weight classes to fight Oscar. The size differential would be a huge advantage in favor of De La Hoya. I would make De La Hoya a 2 to 1 favorite over Pacquiao in a silly fight that should not be taking place because of the ridiculous weight discrepancy. I do agree with Jon in that taking the over would be a smart bet depending on the line.
Klitschko Gun Shy
(This email is in response to a question in last week?s mailbag). Interesting view Brian – thanks for your detailed composition. I see you accept Wladimir Klitschko as gun shy – and he has good reason. Comparisons with Lennox Lewis would not be unexpected here. Early loss (McCall), trained in second phase by Manny Steward, and similar physical dimensions. However, after a shocking loss and derailment Lennox produced destructive performances against Golota, Grant, and Tyson – not so much gun shy as careful.
I’ll keep your reply safe in my in box and may re send it to you in 2 years when David Haye is in the mix!!
-Gareth
Gareth,
Well, Klitschko has produced some pretty good KO?s since he has changed his style and he is undefeated since changing his style; just stating a couple facts. He has been gun shy in some of his recent fights but I think he is still getting better.
As for Haye, I would love to see him succeed in the heavyweight division because boxing could use an exciting, charismatic Heavyweight Champion like him. I just don?t see him having the skill sets to do that. I?m crossing my fingers hoping that you prove me wrong.
Pacquiao?s Place In History
Hi Brian, just wanted to ask a few things about your opinions on Manny Pacquiao. If he were to retire today, would you consider him as an all time great? Where would he rank in your list?
If Mayweather “unretired” and challenge Pacman (which I doubt) do you think the fearless Filipino fighting machine could beat him?
Who among the featherweights and lightweight greats of yesteryears do you believe Pacman would have had a chance to beat? (ie. JC Chavez, Hector Camacho, Naseem Hamed, etc.)
And lastly, I once wrote to an editor that I believe that Pacman would KO Edwin Valero and he reacted by saying it was the Venezuelan who get the KO victory, what’s your take on this?
Thanks and more power! God Bless
-Adrian, Philippines
Adrian,
I?ll tackle your questions one by one:
I find judging a fighter before his career is over very difficult. Obviously he is one of the better fighter?s of his generation but exactly where he ranks all time pound for pound is hard to say. I will safely say that he is not in the top 20 with the likes of Willie Pep, Sugar Ray Robinson, Sugar Ray Leonard, Joe Louis, etc. He is more in the category of guys like Julio Cesar Chavez, Georges Carpentier, and Alexis Arguello. Determining greatness in boxing is much like music. You need to wait and see if the boxer?s legacy stands the test of time because fans can get caught up and carried away in the hysteria of the moment (I am guilty of this too). For example, in the late 80?s hardly anybody questioned that Mike Tyson was the greatest heavyweight of all time. In time and in the years after Pacquiao retires we will be able to step back and determine just how great he was and where he falls on the all time greats list. Obviously he is a great fighter and if he retired today he would be a first ballot hall of fame boxer. But would he break the top 100 greatest pound for pound boxers of all time? Maybe, maybe not. Boxing?s history is so deep and stacked with legendary talent that it is tough to tell.
If Floyd Mayweather unretired I would make him a fairly sizable favorite to defeat Manny Pacquiao. If Mayweather was any less than a 3 to 1 favorite I would bet my life savings on Mayweather (if I were a gambling man). Pacquiao is a great fighter however so yes he has a chance, but his chances are not that great.
Pacquiao would have knocked out Naseem Hamed, Ray Mancini, and Diego Corrales. He would have been a favorite over guys like Jose Luis Castillo and Ken Buchanan. I?d say that he would have about a 50/50 chance against guys like Alexis Arguello, Hector Camacho (because of style though Pacquiao is better overall), and Eusebio Pedroza. However I have a hard time saying that he would defeat the cream of the crop like Henry Armstrong, Pernell Whitaker, or Roberto Duran.
In the potential match up between Manny Pacquiao and Edwin Valero I favor Pacquiao. Manny is the proven commodity who throws straighter, faster, and more educated punches. Both men have the power to end the fight with one punch (especially Valero), but Pacquiao would find the mark more frequently and first.
It Wouldn?t Be Brian?s Boxing Mailbag Without The Crazies
Brian,
I am a fat guy who loves to chase women, but they don’t love me. In my mind, I am very sexy even if I weigh 300 pounds. Boxing is my sport and eating is my heart. Do you have any good food places you can tell me about where they show boxing?
-Farney Fooney
Farney,
I?m sorry you don?t have any luck with the ladies. Maybe you should buy a really nice and expensive watch to attract attention away from your 300 pounds. Just a thought?
Berto Taking the Easy Route
Steve Forbes has no standing whatsoever to be fighting for a welterweight championship. I would much prefer that Andre Berto fight Kermit Cintron or Luis Collazo, if those fights had been an option. Kermit told me his hand is still injured, but what about Collazo?
-David
David,
I am also disappointed in this choice of opponent for Berto since the time is right for him to step up and take on a serious challenger. Steve Forbes vs. Andre Berto is tentatively scheduled to be the undercard for Mosley vs. Mayorga on regular HBO. This is a loss of momentum for Berto, the newly crowned WBC Welterweight Champion. Forbes has lost three of his last four even though one of those fights was controversial. Forbes is really milking this Contender thing for all it is worth; and he didn’t even win! He got runner up!
I know that if Luis Collazo was offered a fair deal to fight Berto he would have taken it. My guess as to why the Berto camp did not offer the fight to Collazo is that they didn’t think that Berto was ready or that the risk/reward ratio pays out better against Steve Forbes because of his fame from the Contender and being an Oscar De La Hoya opponent. Another reason could be money, in that this is just an undercard fight so they did not have enough money to pay Collazo.
But changing gears and being optimistic, perhaps this is just a tune up until all of the other top name welterweights (like Cintron) are free and available.
Still Not Like Forbes As An Opponent
This Forbes fight is about as meaningless as his last couple fights with no-hopers Trabant and Rodriguez, which is another way of saying I’d rate the risk/reward close to zero/zero. They should have at least offered the fight to Collazo. Who knows, maybe he would have taken the modest purse for the opportunity to beat Berto and take his belt. I think Kermit would have done it, if his hand were healed. It tells me DiBella is not very confident that Berto can handle Collazo. Since Collazo is only a lower top-10 guy, the implication is that we may be waiting a long time to see Berto in any unification fights with guys like Margarito, Williams, or Clottey. But hey, that might be good news for Kermit!
-David
David,
They should have offered the fight to Collazo and the fact that they did not suggests, as you said, that DiBella is not confident that Berto can beat Collazo. Even though Luis is a lower top 10 guy at the moment, he is a slick boxer and that is the worst type of fighter to throw a prospect like Berto against because Collazo can make him look bad. Collazo made Ricky Hatton look really bad if you remember. It took a poised veteran like Shane Mosley to figure Collazo out. Berto is an explosive raw talent and he is anything but a poised veteran.
Boxing Jobs On The Internet
Brian,
Can you give any idea where I can work as a boxing correspondent or a contributor. I am presently living in Cebu, Philippines, and I love to watch and read boxing ever since I was 7 years old. I have almost watched every great fight from Rocky Marciano, Joe Louis up to today’s P4P king, Manny Pacquiao. Can you help me? I want to experience being paid from a job that I loved most. Thank you and hoping for your response.
-Toto
Toto,
Making a living out of covering boxing is very difficult and takes an incredible amount of drive and determination. However if you would like to have your foot in the door email RSR?s Managing Editor Geno McGahee and send him a sample of your writing.
Darchinyan Knocks Out Kirilov
Greetings Brian. I wanted to comment on Vic Darchinyan winning over Kirilov on Saturday. Darchinyan proved that he is a great and feared fighter and also shows that Nonito Donaire is a true champion for defeating such a fighter like Darchinyan. What can you say about this?
-Bachgok
Bachgok,
I was actually a bit surprised by Darchinyan?s dominant win over Dimitri Kirilov. I thought that Vic had been exposed a bit by Donaire by giving everyone else a blueprint on how to beat him. He had not looked very good at all since that loss to Donaire. This win over Kirilov redeems Darchinyan in my eyes. I would like to see him get a big fight against someone like Jorge Arce, Fernando Montiel, Cristian Mijares, or a rematch with Donaire. I think that it is safe to say that the Armenian Bull is back!
Send in your feedback on this mailbag or other stories in the world of boxing and I will answer all of your queries with pleasure.
I would also like to welcome current IBF/IBO Flyweight Champion Nonito The “Filipino Flash? Donaire to RSR. Nonito will join the ranks of Kermit Cintron who will also do the “Ask The Champ” Column which launches this week. I know the PI Readers of RSR are going to be excited about this and no doubt, they will be sending in great questions for Donaire as they have for my bag.
Until next week, take care everyone!
